Traders expect Bitcoin to drop below its swing low before the price flattens out and altcoins start to rally.
Bitcoin fell 56.2% in the second quarter of 2022, according to crypto analytics platform Coinglass. That makes it the worst quarter for Bitcoin since Q3 2011 when the price of BTC fell 67%. Much of the damage occurred in the month of June, when Bitcoin fell 37%, the worst monthly drop since September 2011.
Not everything is doom and gloom for crypto investors. On June 29, JPMorgan strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said that the “net leverage metric” suggests that cryptocurrency deleveraging may be in its last stages. The eagerness of crypto companies with stronger balance sheets to bail out struggling crypto companies is also a positive sign.
If the price sustains below $19,637, the probability of a retest of the critical support at $17,622 increases. The falling moving averages and the relative strength index in the oversold zone indicate that the bears are in control.
A breakout and close below $17.622 could signal a resumption of the downtrend. The next support is at $15,000.
This negative view could be invalidated in the short term if the price breaks above the 20-day EMA ($21.907). Such a move could pave the way for a possible rally towards the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) ($26,361).
The bears will try to push the price below the psychological level of $1,000. If successful, the selling could gain momentum and the ETH/USDT pair could drop to the important support at $881. If this level gives way, the pair could resume the downtrend. The next support is at $681.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price bounces off the current level or $1,000, the bulls will try to push the pair above the 20-day EMA. If they can pull it off, it will suggest that the bears may be losing control. Upside momentum could pick up on a break above $1,280.
If the price sustains below $211, the BNB/USDT pair could retest the crucial support at $183. If this support breaks, the downtrend could resume. The next support is $150.
This negative view could be invalidated in the short term if the price breaks above the 20-day EMA. That could pave the way for a potential rally towards the 50-day SMA ($271).
The XRP/USDT pair could drop to the strong support at $0.28, where the bulls are likely to mount a strong defense. If the price bounces off $0.28, it will suggest that the bulls continue to buy lower levels. Afterward, the bulls will make one more attempt to push the price above the 50-day SMA ($0.37).
Conversely, if the bears sink the price below $0.28, it could start the next leg of the downtrend. The pair could then drop to $0.23.
If the price breaks below $0.44, the ADA/USDT pair could drop to the critical $0.40 support.
The bulls are expected to defend this level with all their might because if the support breaks, the pair could resume its downtrend. The next support is at $0.33.
Alternatively, if the price bounces off $0.44 or $0.40, the buyers will once again try to remove the overhead resistance at the moving averages. If they are successful, the pair could start a relief rally towards $0.70.
By Audy Castaneda