Criminals Prefer Fiat over Cryptocurrency, Study Finds

The report was made by the United States Department of the Treasury. Actions are recommended to mitigate the criminal effects. In 2022, the firm Chainalysis drew a similar conclusion.

A report from the United States Department of the Treasury highlights that criminal activity dedicated to money laundering and financing terrorism is in favor of fiat money before cryptocurrencies.

This is how the Treasury points it out, in a passage of the study:

“This risk assessment recognizes that most money laundering, terrorist financing, and proliferation financing by volume and value of transactions occurs in fiat currency or otherwise outside the virtual asset ecosystem via more traditional methods.”

The Treasury Report Highlights

The report considers the vulnerabilities that allow the use of DeFi services for criminal purposes. In this field, the analysis points out, activities such as ransomware attacks, theft, fraud and scams, drug trafficking, and financing of the proliferation of illegal activities take place.

The assessment recommends “enhancing the U.S. AML/CFT regime as applied to DeFi services by closing any identified gaps in the BSA to the extent that they allow certain DeFi services to fall outside the scope of the BSA’s definition of financial institutions.”

The Treasury asks to reinforce the supervision of activities carried out with virtual assets. In the same way, the control of anti-money laundering and terrorist financing protocols, such as know-your-client (KYC).

It also points out recommendations for regulators, who “should conduct additional outreach to industry to further explain how applicable regulations apply to DeFi services, in line with previously issued regulations and guidance.” Regulators should also “consider taking additional regulatory actions,”, as well as monitoring “any changes in the DeFi ecosystem that could affect illicit finance risks or the application of AML/CFT obligations to entities in the space.” These recommendations could be implemented “through research and engagement with the private sector.”

Chainalysis Also Reviewed Criminal Preference

In January 2022, the Chainalysis firm presented a report that reached a conclusion similar to that of the US Department of the Treasury. Contrary to an argument used against cryptocurrencies, according to which they are used for various criminal activities, the report indicates that it is not a preferred path for criminals, because it is easier to trace their activity.

According to the report by Chainalysis, “the biggest difference between fiat and cryptocurrency-based money laundering is that, due to the inherent transparency of Blockchains, we can more easily trace how criminals move cryptocurrency between wallets and services in their efforts to convert their funds into cash.”

Back then, Chainalysis was already putting a spotlight on vulnerabilities in decentralized finance, explaining that cybercriminals are targeting “their ill-gotten funds to a service where they can be kept safe from the authorities and eventually converted to cash.”

Thus, money laundering is understood to underpin all other forms of cryptocurrency-based crime. In this sense, since there is no way to access the funds, the incentive to commit crimes that involve cryptocurrencies, to begin with, disappears.

By Audy Castaneda

Bitcoin Remains in a Dull Mood…. but that Could Change Soon

Bitcoin remained in a tight trading range on April 7th as crypto analysts expected the week’s key U.S. macroeconomic data. Both USD 25,000 and USD 30,000 continue as price targets for BTC.

Bitcoin’s strong start to 2023 persists despite numerous headwinds, currently outperforming the S&P 500 index by nearly 60 percentage points.

Will USD 30,000 or USD 25,000 Continue as Price Target for Bitcoin?

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirmed another swing day of around USD 28,000 for the BTC/USD pair. The pair had avoided volatility for most of the week, but now faces the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) numbers as a potential final catalyst for risk assets.

According to Cointelegraph Pro, Bitcoin has posted gains of nearly 70% in 2023, rising from $16,521 to $28,060, compared to the S&P 500 index which is up just over 7% during the same time period.

In an interview on April 6th with Yahoo Finance, SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci indicated that Bitcoin has consistently outperformed every other asset class over longer periods of time.

Scaramucci expressed to NiceHash his bullish viewpoint for the leading cryptocurrency by market cap ahead of the next halving cycle, which will take place in early March 2024.

On the other hand, Michaël van de Poppe, founder, and CEO of trading firm Eight indicated that expectations are geared to see 3.6%, similar to last month. Based on this week’s financial figures, I would expect more like 3.7-3.8%,” he shortened his expectations. As a result, DXY is down, BTC remains unchanged and indices remain down/up depending on how far the outlier goes.

Van de Poppe argued that Bitcoin remains in a dull mood, although consolidating for weeks, while the old altcoins are moving. He sustained that support is needed to hold the USD 27,600 level because if that is lost, a drop to USD 25,000-25,400 looks likely to come. The level needs to be held until the NFP data comes out, and then all the way to USD 30,000 will be ongoing.

Fellow Crypto Tony agrees that the current trading range may prove difficult. He predicted that “we will stay in this range for a while. If we do for a while and the altcoins start to run, it just confirms that capital flow is on the move”

Bollinger Bands Signal Volatility for BTC Price

Examining volatility, well-known analyst HornHairs noted that Bollinger bands were offering a telltale sign that calm conditions were about to break.

He advised that Bitcoin volatility contraction is the tightest it has been all year. The games will begin shortly, as USD 1.12 billion in Bitcoin options expire this week and bulls appear to be at a disadvantage.

A 1-day candlestick chart of BTC/USD pair with Bollinger bands from TradingView confirmed that they were “tightening” around the spot price, reflecting the current narrow range, implying that an upper or lower band challenge should begin soon.

As some experts had pointed out, 2023 has been a year of contrasting volatility phenomena in the sense that the BTC/USD pair gained 40% in January but ended February almost exactly where it started.

By Marina Meza

AVAX May Rise up to 20% with a New Bullish Pattern

The bullish pattern established in this cycle could lead AVAX to gains of up to 20% in the medium term.

Avalanche Network is a smart contract-capable platform whose goal is to improve Blockchain technology in terms of interoperability, scalability, and usability. Its native token is AVAX, and it is a utility token, a medium of exchange within the Avalanche ecosystem.

It is a cryptocurrency with a large capitalization, and that has come to be worth 10 times its current price. However, the risks of investing in this type of cryptocurrency must be carefully considered, given its extremely high volatility. Also, it is important to keep in mind that past performance does not guarantee future benefits.

Considering the above mentioned, with the growing uncertainty in the cryptocurrency market since 2022, the Avalanche (AVAX) price is actively resonating, between a horizontal resistance at $18 and a rising support trend line. In technical analysis, this structure is called an ascending triangle pattern, which is one of the most well-known bullish continuation patterns.

Historical Summary

In the last three weeks, the AVAX price has rallied at least three times from the key levels of the triangle pattern. Said recovery can be evidenced as levels higher than the previous minimums. on the graphs, and, based on the established pattern, this indicates that traders should see the AVAX price register even higher valuations.

Currently, the price of AVAX sits at around $17.87, according to data from CoinGecko. In this range, the price is showing signs that it can break the next resistance, located at $18.

However, achieving this will not be easy, as there is a strong selling region above this level. Selling pressure persists at the aforementioned resistance; consequently, the AVAX price is likely to pull back lower and prolong the ongoing consolidation phase, which in other words, means staying sideways before retesting new highs.

On the other hand, the breaking of said resistance could lead AVAX to achieve new levels, as the buying force consolidates.

What to Expect

Theoretically speaking, the formation of a new higher peak in the asset price, under the influence of a triangle pattern, indicates a gradual growth in optimism. The dynamic support trend line reduces its distance between the neckline resistance, which, in turn, allows the bulls to make a significant breakout, surpassing resistance with strong volume.

Therefore, a possible break of the resistance at the $18 level will release the accumulation of bullish momentum, and push the price of AVAX up by 10%, to reach $19.6.

However, if the trend continues, the price should go to the top of this movement: the region of $21.60. This would mean an increase of almost 20% compared to the current price.

A less likely but possible break below the support line of the trend will invalidate the bullish assumption and could prolong the previous downtrend. In this case, the first correction support is in the range of $16.45 and $15.30.

According to CrytoPredictions, AVAX’s price for today (07.04.2023) is forecast to be in the price range of $15,348 – $22,571. The Avalanche price is forecast to end today at $18,057.

By Audy Castaneda

Why Are Cryptocurrency Prices Rising? Sector in Trouble, but Inflation and Interest Rates Raise Prices

Cryptocurrency prices have had a strong quarter, prices rallied north. However, conditions within the industry have worsened, according to Dan Ashmore. Bull run simply on softer macro conditions, with interest rate expectations falling.

It’s been a friendly few months for cryptocurrency investors. After being looted last year, the sector has rebounded strongly. In 2023, interest rates tightened at the fastest pace in history. This sucked liquidity out of the system and, as a result, the most speculative and high-risk sectors suffered particularly.

The crypto sector is one of the highest-risk ones, with the correlation of Bitcoin still extremely high with respect to risky stocks. Therefore, the interest rate hikes drowned Bitcoin as well as the crypto industry in general.

However, the picture is different in 2023. Inflation, still very high, has eased in the last two quarters, but at least it is now on a downward trend. Meanwhile, fears of a global recession have begun to resonate. Exacerbated by the bank swings over the last month, the market has moved to assume that the Federal Reserve cannot raise interest rates as aggressively as previously anticipated.

Why Are Cryptocurrency Prices Rising?

The reasons for the rise of cryptocurrencies have nothing to do with cryptocurrencies. This is a purely macro-driven hike. Actually, it is about the same reason tech stocks are up. Names like Tesla (up 72%), Meta (up 70%), and Nvidia (up 88%) have also had an excellent quarter.

However, regulators have not stopped. Binance, along with its CEO Changpeng Zhao, is being sued by the US Commodity Futures and Exchange Commission. The allegation is that the exchange “disregarded federal laws” for US financial markets. including money laundering and terrorist financing laws. In addition, there have been bankruptcies, an example of which is the case of Crypto lender Genesis which went under in January, due to the FTX crash in November.

There is also the collapse of the largest crypto banks, Silvergate, Signature, and Silicon Valley Bank, which have all evaporated into thin air. This attacks a vital fiat onramp in the industry, an unquestionable headwind for the industry in the long run.

It’s clearly been a pretty eventful few months across the board for cryptocurrencies, with little good news coming out of the industry. What has reinvigorated the rise in prices is the softening of macro conditions.

Low Liquidity, Capital Fleeing

Liquidity has flown out of the industry at an alarming rate. Stablecoin balances on exchanges are at their lowest level since 2021, while order books are shallow and volumes have dropped sharply.

Low liquidity exacerbates both upward and downward movements. It is difficult to know what will happen in the future; what is known is that Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve continue to hold their own, with their monetary policy plans changing to accommodate inflation figures, recession fears, as well as bank swings.

This whole landscape will be different, as Bitcoin ever decouples. However, at the moment it is a macro world, and crypto investors live in it.

By Audy Castaneda

What Will Happen When $4.8 Billion in Ethereum Options Expire?

Ethereum outperforms Bitcoin in options trading. A high put/call ratio is bearish for Ethereum. ETH prices are cooling off, after hitting a seven-month high.

A large number of Bitcoin and Ethereum options contracts are about to expire. This often causes volatility in the prices of the underlying assets. There is a significant shift in derivatives trading activity, with Ethereum options trading outpacing Bitcoin.

In relation to this, Industry analyst Colin Wu commented, via tweet, on the massive shift in derivatives trading, as follows:

“37,000 BTC options are about to expire with a Put Call Ratio of 0.51, a max pain point of $28,000, and a notional value of $1.05 billion.  256,000 ETH options are about to expire, with a Put Call Ratio of 1.09, a max pain point of $1,800, and a notional value of $4.8 billion. The Shanghai upgrade is coming, and the trading of Ethereum options has surpassed that of Bitcoin for the first time in more than a month.”

Ethereum Options Expiration

Ethereum options are derivatives contracts that allow traders to speculate on the price of ETH, as well as to buy or sell Ethereum at a specific price, the strike price, on a certain expiration date. They are also more flexible than futures that have fixed expiration dates.

As CoinDesk noted a week ago, investors use options to hedge their positions in the spot or futures market, to counter adverse price movements, as well as to speculate on future trends in valuations and volatility. According to Deribit, Ethereum’s open interest (OI) stands at almost 2.6 million open contracts that have yet to be settled.

Moreover, there is a put/call ratio of 1.09 for Ethereum. The put/call ratio is calculated by dividing the number of put options traded by the number of calls (long) option contracts traded. A figure above 1 is bearish, as more traders buy more short contracts than long ones. The critical point for Ethereum options is $1,800, which describes the strike price with the most open contracts. In addition, it is the price at which the asset would cause financial losses to the largest number of option holders at expiration.

For Bitcoin options, the picture looks a bit more bullish, with a put/call ratio of 0.51, suggesting that more long contracts are being bought than short contracts. On the other hand, the critical price of BTC is $28,000, quite close to where the asset is currently trading.

Crypto Market Outlook

Cryptocurrency markets have been flat on the day, with total capitalization hovering around $1.2 trillion. In addition, there has been very little movement in the top 10 cryptocurrencies, apart from Dogecoin (DOGE), which has lost 8.6%, after the traditional Elon Musk Twitter effect.

It should be remembered that, in recent days, Twitter changed its usual logo to that of Dogecoin’s Shiba Inu and, as on previous occasions, this generated an increase in the price of DOGE.

Ethereum is currently trading at $1,870, cooling off from midweek when it hit a seven-month high of $1,920. More downward pressure is likely to be added, as all of those Ethereum options contracts begin to expire this month.

By Audy Castaneda

Bitcoin hardly Holds the USD 28,000 Level

BTC’s Price is Crushed by Traders  

Bitcoin again failed to break out of a narrow trading range on April 6th, as the USD 28,000 level again hung in the balance.

According to information provided by Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView, the BTC/USD pair was trading below USD 28,000. Yesterday, the pair had approached USD 29,000 reducing liquidity in what analysts called the whales “choreographed” move. That seemed to be true, as the upward momentum soon faded and the spot price remained in an increasingly narrow range.

The liquidity cloud of around USD 30,000 remained untested, much to the frustration of those hoping for an easy continuation of the 2023 rally.

In that sense, Material Indicators pointed out that traders had shifted buy and sell liquidity which causes a compressing effect in the prospective zone of spot price movement.

Liquidity Diminishes Volatility

On the other hand, FireCharts has shown that both sides appear to be moving BTC liquidity closer to the active trading zone, effectively compressing the range.

Bearing in mind, what the outcome of the current price action could be in short time frames, analysis resource Skew conceived two outcomes. He described the BTC/USD pair as a “crab”-moving sideways with little room to maneuver.

BTC has not changed much; it continues to move in a tight 4-hour range. Price struggles to stay above the 1-day range high and that usually implies one of two outcomes:

1. Follow the EMA trend / hold the 4-hour range low.

2. Bleed into the low of 1-day range and the breakout occurs there.

A “Double Top” Formation Could Be in Progress

In the interim, trader, and analyst Rekt Capital has recognized a drop to USD 27,000 as a potential signal that a long-term “double top” formation is underway.

BTC’s recent rejection of Double Top resistance means that BTC could still fall from here to complete the second part formation; he tweeted that day together with an explanatory chart. Typically, Double Tops resemble an “M” shape, so the second part of the pattern would form with a drop to ~ USD 27,000.  

Others remained Optimistic about Bitcoin’s Path for this New Year

Bitcoin (BTC) price continues struggling and has overcome repeated falls that have led some analysts to project a long-term “double top” formation in the near period.

For some experts, Bitcoin has a medium-term horizon that can be situated around $1 million per token, so after such a strong start, trader and analyst Credible Crypto reaffirmed his prediction that the BTC/USD pair would reach a new all-time high in 2023; and it is expected to make at least half the journey, approaching half a million dollars per token by the end of 2025.

Will Bitcoin Exceed USD 30,000?

The chances will increase taking into account new data from JOLTS and the dollar weakness tendency.

Credible Crypto indicated that a drop to USD 23,000-25,000 does not change any of that. It’s nothing to worry about, read part of the recent commentary.

Earlier, Cointelegraph reported estimates pointing to another bullish double top for Bitcoin in 2025, potentially above USD 200,000.

By Marina Meza