Woo says that the market today, on average, has paid $ 7,456 per bitcoin. BTC inventory decline in this cycle is twice as long as in 2017.
Analyst Willy Woo published a new predictive model on the price of bitcoin, which predicts a price of $ 200,000 within a year for this cryptocurrency. He even qualifies this model as conservative and states that by the end of 2021 “$ 300,000 is not totally ruled out.”
Woo (@woonomic on Twitter) published his analysis in a thread on that social network last Monday. Woo uses a metric from his Bitcoin Price Models called Average Cap, which is a modified moving average. The average cap on any day is the average of all daily caps, divided by the market age in days.
Once you have the Average Capitalization, it multiplies by 35, so the result obtains the Cap or Top Cap Capitalization. This curve is always above price, but it coincides with successive all-time highs for bitcoin, Woo says.
The prediction for the current moment is above $ 87,000, more than four times the current price. Anyway, the two previous highs of $ 1,000 in December 2013, and the one close to $ 20,000 in December 2017, are part of the predictive curve. By the end of 2021, Woo expects the price to reach $ 200,000.
The price, which is the average of the different lots of BTC, valued at the price they had the last time they were moved, is currently above $ 7,000. Woo explains it another way: “The market today paid an average of $ 7,456 for its coins. You are all geniuses”.
The decline in BTC held in spot exchanges (spot) is used by Woo as an indicator before a bull cycle. Before the start of the bull run in 2017, there was an 11% decay in BTC inventory on exchanges; this happened over five month and reaching an end in January 2017.
Similarly, Woo highlights the BTC inventory drop on exchanges, almost double, 19%, during the current bull cycle. This decline lasted for more than 10 months, and the bull run began its cycle in late July this year.
Another aspect to take into consideration in the bitcoin price model is related to the return in dollars of the market capitalization per dollar invested in each cycle. “The HODLers are holding back more, the profit per dollar invested was $ 2 in the 2013 bull cycle, $ 2.50 in 2017, and it is estimated the investment of $ 3.50 or more for 2021.
Willy Woo made accurate predictions about the price of bitcoin, in which he used data from the Bitcoin blockchain and its pricing archetypes. After the price rally in late July, Woo maintained that this was the beginning of a major bull run.
In mid-September, amidst a period of bitcoin price deterioration, the analyst predicted a price rally in subsequent weeks as a major bitcoin trading cycle had been completed.
By: Jenson Nuñez.
