Some analysts consider that the price of Bitcoin could rise to 75,000 and even a million dollars. However, in the short term, the price of Bitcoin could fall to USD 6,000.
After the third halving of Bitcoin, which took place last May 11th, analysts calculate that the price of the digital asset could exceed USD 500,000, whilst other analysts believe that it will reach USD 75,000 or even fall below USD 6,000.
Market analyst Plan B recently published an analysis on its Twitter account. In the tweet, Plan B assured that the halving of 2020 could make Bitcoin’s price exceed USD 100,000. This analysis also shows that the price of Bitcoin can reach a million dollars in 2024 if it follows the trend of previous events.
According to the analysis that different users published on Twitter, the price of Bitcoin can reach USD 545,000 per bitcoin if the scenario is like after the halving of 2012. The second halving occurred in November 2012. After that event, the price of Bitcoin progressively rose from USD 2.01 to USD 270.94 and even more than USD 1,100 in late 2013. In total, the price of Bitcoin rose by one 7.562% in less than a year after that first halving.
After the halving of July 2016, the price of Bitcoin also reached a significant increase. This increase in the price of Bitcoin appreciated months later. Each Bitcoin was worth USD 164 In July 2016. On the other hand, each Bitcoin was worth USD 20,089 in December 2017.
The history of these two events suggests that the price of Bitcoin could reach USD 545,000 in 10 or 11 months. This increase would be possible since the halving reduces the bitcoin reward and increases the demand in the market.
Halving and Coronavirus
Last May 17th, the price of Bitcoin was USD 9,750. Days before this year’s halving, the average was USD 7,000 per bitcoin. For this reason, if the price of Bitcoin rises 7,000 % and happens the same that in 2012, the price could reach USD 545,000.
Other analysts are much more optimistic. Former Facebook executive Chamath Palihapitiya and three other experts indicated, in late April, that the cryptocurrency may be worth between USD 20,000 and USD 1,000,000 after halving.
According to Chamath, Bitcoin has a 10% chance of reaching a million dollars. This trend, he says, could increase due to the crisis that the Covid-19 pandemic caused. “If the probability was 1 %, unfortunately, the probability is now 5 % or 10 %”, he said.
Short-term Bearish Scenario
Despite these optimistic predictions, some traders recall that, after a halving, the price of the cryptocurrency may drop before increasing significantly in the following months. In the short term, many cryptocurrency traders predict that the price of Bitcoin will drop to USD 6,500.
A drop to USD 6,400 would consolidate the support area of USD 6,000, strengthening the Bitcoin rally for a more robust bullish trend in the second half of 2020.
However, other traders predict that the price of Bitcoin will experience lower support levels after it falls to USD 8,100. Since the price of Bitcoin fell after the previous two halvings, technical analysts expect the price to drop to USD 6,000 as its lowest point.
If this happens, the digital asset that is worth more than USD 9,000 today could drop below 6,000 before boosting to USD 10,000 and continuing to rise. If Bitcoin’s momentum is overwhelmingly strong and breaks the trend, it can trigger a major bullish trend in the coming months.
By María Rodríguez