The trading week begins this Tuesday with new US retail data.
The positive court ruling in favor of Ripple, in combination with falling US consumer and producer prices, led to significant price gains in the crypto market. The Bitcoin price hit a new year high of $31,862, but was subsequently unable to confirm this bullish breakout. On the last trading day of the week, profit taking increased despite good US economic data.
US stock indices returned their early gains and also triggered price consolidations in the crypto market. Bitcoin corrected around 4 percentage points within two hours of trading to the lower edge of the sideways range of the last three trading weeks.
The BTC price only stabilized in the $30,000 area and rallied to around $30,300 over the weekend. Despite the positive news, the bearish scenario of a short-term price correction discussed in the latest Bitcoin price analysis is still not ruled out.
US Retail Sales to Start the Week
On Tuesday, the US Census Bureau will release final US retail sales for the previous month of June. For the past trading month of June, market watchers assume that retail sales will stabilize again.
An increase of +0.5 percent is expected compared to the previous month. If the estimates are met or even exceeded, there are signs that consumer confidence will improve.
If, on the other hand, the expert estimate is lowered and consumer behavior falls again, the price consolidation that began last Friday could solidify.
Midweek Inflation Data for the Eurozone
On Wednesday, Eurostat publishes the final consumer prices in Europe for June. For the final data, experts expect inflation to drop from 6.1 percent to 5.5 percent. As a result, consumer prices in Europe would continue to fall, as they did in the United States.
If the inflation rate continues to fall as forecast, the European stock market should initially react positively, as it did after the US inflation data was released.
If, on the other hand, EU consumer prices are higher than analyst forecasts, this would be a setback in the fight against the ongoing inflation problem in the Eurozone.
Construction Permits in the US
Also on Wednesday, the Census Bureau will present preliminary estimates of US building permits for the month of June. Analysts expect the housing market to stagnate in June. Compared to the previous month, market watchers are forecasting a marginal drop from 1.496 million in May to 1.495 million in June.
If the forecast is met or even exceeded, the US stock market and with it the price of Bitcoin could rise in value. However, if the number of building permits issued is below experts’ expectations and the real estate sector cools off again, a price correction in US stock indices cannot be ruled out, and thus, the probability of a price consolidation in the crypto market.
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
On Thursday, the latest Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index will be released. Compared to the previous month, analysts expect an improvement from -13.7 to -9.7 in July. If market participants’ forecasts are met or even exceeded, this would be a first indication of a stabilization in the business outlook for US industrial companies.
If the index is well below expectations, as it was on April 20, this would be an indication that the US economy could weaken again in the coming months after recent better data.
By Audy Castaneda
