The actual panorama for Bitcoin got experienced just three times in history. Every time this phenomenon took effect, the price bounced.
Bitcoin is in an unsafe zone for its price, especially regarding its historical support that, until now, seemed to have enough solidity. But with the digital asset just dancing above $21,000, the current price level goes below that indicator, which previously served as backup.
A few weeks ago, the 200-week moving standard usually reflected robust support for the price. But right now, BTC is below that standard.
Moving standards are indicators that measure upward and downward trends in the market. In this particular case, the 200-weekly moving standard is the 200-week average of the price of bitcoin. Therefore, it gives a good overview of how the market would react in the future.
Currently, the price of that indicator lurks around $22,300 per BTC. Meanwhile, bitcoin trades on exchanges presented figures registered at $21,200, according to data from TradingView.
Since the beginning of bitcoin, this situation took effect only three times; between August and September 2015, then in December 2018, and in March 2020. At that last moment, this situation kept active for about a week; now, the price appears below that mark for more than three days.
Imminent Bounce for Bitcoin Price
The scenario looks harsh for the digital asset. However, the history lived by BTC in the market can suggest a different story. While this breakout of the moving standard has been rare, the few times this phenomenon has happened, it got followed by a sudden bounce in BTC price.
When this situation happened in 2015, BTC reached a low position of just over $200 and, in weeks, it approached $500 per unit. In 2018, it went from 3,100 to 4,200 in a few weeks, but although it received support again, it did not break below it.
Finally, in 2020 the price changed from 3,800 to more than 8,000 in just a month.
This data looks promising, but it needs a more profound study to cover another aspect of risk for the price of bitcoin. The crypto space would be facing a historic moment: the threat that the market period focused on halving represents.
Historically, the top of one cycle becomes the backup for the next. But the closeness of that level at present appears to drown the market in a sea of fear, while the predictions do not look as promising as users would want.
By: Jenson Nuñez
