While the holdings of BTC on FTX have tripled to 103,200 units, those of Huobi have dropped by 6% to 12,300. The realized price of on-chain coins is USD 24,100, which suggests a 63% gain for long-term holders.
Since July, there have been more outflows of Bitcoin (BTC) in net terms on exchanges. However, four of the leading platforms have had nearly the same volume of net inflows.
The total outflows on most cryptocurrency exchanges are 46,000 BTC, equivalent to around USD 1.8 billion.
Data from Glassnode indicates that only Binance, Bittrex, Bitfinex, and FTX have had net inflows of 207,000 BTC. Since July, net outflows have reached 253,000 BTC on the other exchanges analyzed.
The most dramatic change in BTC holdings has occurred on the FTX and Huobi exchanges. FTX has significantly tripled the amount of BTC it owned to around 103,200 units. Meanwhile, the volume on Huobi has dropped to 12,300 BTC, down 3% from over 400,000 BTC it held in March 2020.
The net outflows of the pioneering cryptocurrency from exchanges have been steady since 2021, with significant spikes in August and January.
Realized Price of On-Chain Coins Suggests a 63% Profit for Long-Term Holders
However, Glassnode explains that the low inflows are due to the current scale of uncertainty in the cryptocurrency market. They suggest that there has been a shift towards derivatives trading over spot sales to hedge risk.
The measurement of BTC inflows to exchanges aims to help better understand whether investors are preparing to liquidate or trade their coins. Net inflows reveal there is selling pressure, while net outflows show there are higher holdings.
On-chain coins maintain a realized price of USD 24,100 per BTC, representing a 63% profit margin for long-term holders. The realized price is the average value of the coins moved on-chain.
As opposed to the implied price of USD 39,200, the realized price is the estimated fair value per coin. It is currently just below the breakeven point, with BTC trading at around USD 38,619, according to CoinGecko.
Low Losses by Holders May Mean that Sellers Are Burning out
The losses by short-term holders are around 15% lower. The average price of coins moved on-chain in the last five months has been around USD 46,400, according to Glassnode.
In addition to the low volume of inflows and outflows, the profit-and-loss ratio of sellers has flattened since January 2021. Although there has not been a significant capitulation event as in previous cyclical funds, long-term holders are stopping selling.
Glassnode notes there have historically been low losses for short-term and long-term holders. They explain that this may signal an increase in the likelihood that added vendors will burn out.
The analysis indicates that there is still a risk of a final and complete capitulation of short-term and long-term holders, as in the lows of previous cycles.
Bitcoin is trading at around USD 38,619 and has accumulated a 10.6% loss over the last week. Its daily trading volume is above USD 24,56 billion, and its market capitalization is about USD 732.91 billion, according to CoinGecko.
By Alexander Salazar
