It is currently almost 40% from its all-time high in November.
It is possible that Bitcoin will not experience a new bullish rally until the end of 2024 or the beginning of 2025, according to Du Jun, the co-founder of Huobi, one of the largest cryptocurrency exchanges in the world, and collects ‘CNBC’.
Jun Du has positioned himself on the side of analysts who see the crypto market bearish. His prediction is one more incentive for the bears, as he sees a clearly bearish scenario for the next two years.
According to Jun Du, we will not see a bull cycle until early 2025 at the latest. Basing his prediction on the development of previous market cycles, he assures that “we are in the first stages of a bearish cycle”.
Du Jun stated that Bitcoin bull markets connect directly to a process called ‘halving’, which occurs every few years.
The miners, who use powerful specialized computers to solve complex mathematical puzzles to validate transactions on the Bitcoin network, receive rewards in Bitcoin as a result. With the ‘halving’, that reward splits in half. It occurs approximately every four years.
Currently, Bitcoin is almost 40% off its November all-time high, although it is still far from some of the lows seen in January. The next halving event will likely take place by 2024.
Will We Have to Wait Two Years?
If the crypto market really is starting a bear cycle and Jun Du is right, “the next BTC bull cycle won’t come until late 2024 or early 2025.” Does this prediction have its bases solely on historical analysis?
No. Jun Du firmly believes that bull cycles and halvings have a close connection. If we look at the last BTC bull cycles, they took place around the year after the last halvings.
With this theory in hand, Jun Du can predict that the next bullish cycle will take place sometime between May 4, 2024 (the date of the next halving) and the beginning of 2025.
Taking the May 2020 halving as an example, we see that it did not have much short-term impact on the BTC price. Nevertheless, in November of that same year, Nakamoto’s currency began to warm up before breaking the 2017 ATH.
The December 2017 high was a milestone in BTC history. The breakout of the $20k level in December 2020 will also go down as a historic moment. There, three years after the 2017 ATH, a bullish cycle began that culminated in mid-April with a price above 60k USD.
Between April and July, the BTC retracted, although we are yet to see a new stratospheric impulse that would have its highest peak on November 10. Since then, the BTC ATH stands at around 70k USD.
Not Just Halving
About three months ago, Bitcoin was close to 70k dollars per unit, but it seems that many months have passed. The fear of investors has been intensifying and there is an increasing bearish perception in the crypto community.
Many accept Jun Du’s version, although the maximalist resistance believes that BTC is no longer the lad that depended on halvings to travel to the moon. Indeed, the crypto market has evolved in such a way that the variables that can influence the price are multiple.
We should keep in mind that there is much more institutional money involved than before. That is why Jun Du himself asserts that, “it is very difficult to accurately predict [the behavior of BTC]”, and not only because of the action of strong hands, but because of the impact of geopolitical and social tensions fueled after the pandemic.
By Audy Castaneda
