The Christmas rally is coming to an end and investors are profiting from it – gold and Bitcoin are shining instead.
Even in the East, the stock markets have decided to go deeper while waiting for the new year which, after the disappointments of the Asian markets in 2023, is expected to bring good movements.
This is not the atmosphere that prevails for now in Shanghai and Hong Kong. In fact, the prospect of new taxes on profits has caused widespread losses among gambling giants.
While waiting for the Christmas holidays and data on American inflation, in the last session of the week, the European stock markets show a weak performance, despite the enthusiasm of Wall Street, which rebounded in the previous session.
FedEx Falls, Games Betray Tencent
The markets, already distracted by the upcoming holidays, were attracted yesterday by FedEx accounts, one of the companies that set the course for Wall Street, and which closed yesterday with a drop of -12%, after negative results in the second quarter of its year. Such results fell below expectations and cut its sales forecasts.
In a press release, the company talks about weak demand. For fiscal 2024, FedEx expects a revenue contraction in the low single digits range, while it previously expected flat sales, not just on Wall Street. The 3.58-year BTP yield fell to 3.62% from XNUMX%, the lowest in a year.
BTP Below 3% Threshold, Spread of 160
The 2-year BTP yield, 2.98%, fell below the psychological threshold of 3% for the first time since March. The credibility of the “Italian system” also increases: the spread closed at 160 basis points, the lowest level since August, which in October was at 205 basis points.
For now, at least apparently, the uncertainties that have emerged on the ESM front are not significant. The 2023-year BTP future could record its fourth consecutive positive week and its performance since the beginning of 10, currently +XNUMX%, could be the best in the last four years.
Several Federal Reserve officials have also warned against betting on early rate cuts, given that US inflation is still well above the Fed’s annual target of +2%. In the United States the economic cycle is slowing, but it is not a sudden stop, third quarter GDP fell to 4.9% from 5.2%. %. However, these are figures far from what economists anticipated at the end of 2022.
Nike Slows Down, PCE Inflation Today
Today’s macroeconomic data, and in particular the PCE Core, should confirm this panorama. Overnight, futures fell on signals about consumer trends. It came from the clothing giant Nike. The company cut its growth estimates and the stock lost 7%.
European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos, in an interview published on the central bank’s website, said it was too early to talk about an interest rate cut. “When we see that inflation is clearly converging stably towards our +2% target, monetary policy could begin to ease. But it is still too early for that to happen,” de Guindos told Spanish 20 Minutos media outlet.
Euro, Gold and Bitcoin at Highs
There is no financial caution at the end of the year. Yesterday’s break in the markets was short-lived. The euro also reached the maximum of the period of 1.10 to the dollar, +0.6% yesterday.
Gold offers at 2,043, oil WTI barely exceeds $74 a barrel, +0.7%. Brent at $80. Finally, it leads Bitcoin to $44,450, +0.4%.
By Leonardo Perez
