The dynamics of the behavior of the exchange value of Bitcoin in the pre-halving and post-halving stages are described below.

Investing in Bitcoin is a complex topic from any point of view. In a context dominated by halving expectations, however, this reality faces additional particularities. This means that at the time of the halving, the usual investment strategies must be different.

On April 18, the 4/32 halving will take place on the Bitcoin blockchain and from then on, experts and investors expect that the reward cut event will cause strong purchasing pressure in the pioneering digital currency.

However, this is not a mechanical event where the BTC price reacts immediately after the halving. There are historical patterns of currency behavior that offer some clues to possible movements related to the event. Considering these patterns, investors stick to corresponding investment strategies.

Investing in the Bitcoin Halving Era

It can be said that investing in Bitcoin in the halving year offers different results compared to years further away. According to proponents of the cyclical BTC price theory, the entire trend of the coin is divided into 4-year periods. In turn, these are divided into two sub-cycles: bullish and bearish.

Consequently, the year of the halving and the following are considered periods of rising prices. Meanwhile, the years further away are those of bear markets, with the so-called winters dominating the scene. The market sentiment in both periods is completely different.

These cycles do not always happen in a mathematically exact way. For example, at the end of the 2020-21 bull market, only 2022 was a bear market or winter, while 2023 was a notable recovery, with Bitcoin growing by 160%. Thus, both 2024-25 would be bullish, in theory.

The fact that a very powerful rise in 2024 could bring about a corrective and even bearish period in 2025 must be kept on the radar. As can be seen, in this market the forecasts are usually highly treacherous. With that in consideration, a Bitcoin investment strategy must be flexible enough, as well as hoping for a good dose of luck, to be successful.

BTC Pre Halving Price

2023 was an atypical year in which macroeconomic conditions allowed a much greater recovery than expected. From $16,000 during the winter, the currency managed to reach approximately $40,000 per unit. In 2024, the bullish trend was reinforced amid the spot ETF rush on the New York Stock Exchange.

Regardless of the weight of the currency’s performance, the halving price movement pattern appears to hold. The halving is just a few weeks away, so Bitcoin investment strategies from the current point on should have considerably limited gains.

BTC Post Halving Price

The post halving is where most of the heavy artillery is in terms of the market exchange value of BTC. The real bull-run is expected to occur specifically at that later stage. Despite this, there should be no confusion at this stage.

Any strategy should not aim to take profits on April 18 or even in the months after the halving. In fact, historical data from previous halvings shows that the price of Bitcoin rises about a year after the cut. This does not exclude the possibility that the price of the currency maintains an upward trend immediately after the cut.

Bitcoin price cycles are a guide to investing and not an exact manual. Market conditions mean that each cycle has its particularities. Therefore, a strategy that is not very flexible could end in disappointment for investors.

By Audy Castaneda


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