BTC and Sub-$18,500 in the Hands of USD Coin and Silicon Valley Bank

Audy Castañeda
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<strong>BTC and Sub-$18,500 in the Hands of USD Coin and Silicon Valley Bank</strong>

It was a bullish Saturday session, with BTC extending its losing streak to five sessions. Dip buyers provided modest support on Sunday, as investors tracked updates in USD Coin and Silicon Valley Bank. Technical indicators remain bearish, with less than $18,500 in sight.

On Saturday, Bitcoin (BTC) rose 1.62%. Reversing a 0.88% loss from Friday, BTC ended the day at $20,529. While BTC revisited below $20,000 for the second time since Jan. 14, BTC ended a five-day losing streak.

A bullish start to the day saw BTC rally to an early high of $20,789. BTC broke above the first major resistance level (R1) at $20,525 before falling to a mid-morning low of $19,863. Moving away from the first major support level (S1) at $19,735, however, BTC rallied to end the day at $20,529.

USD Coin and Silicon Valley Bank Delivered a Choppy Saturday Session

Fed Fear receded into the background on Saturday, with investors monitoring updates on Silicon Valley Bank and the depegging of USD Coin (USDC).

News broke on Saturday that Circle plans to tackle Silicon Valley Bank’s shortfall in corporate resources. Nonetheless, the USDC remained unpegged from the greenback at $0.9705 this morning.

Updates on the demise of Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB) were less crypto-friendly. Investors will have to wait until Monday for more details. The Federal Reserve announced an emergency meeting on Monday, which may shed light on whether regulators can make SVB’s creditors whole. Ahead of the Fed meeting, SVB contagion will remain elevated.

Considering the situation and the threat to other US regional banks, the updates will have a major influence on US futures and the cryptocurrency market by default.

The NASDAQ Composite Index fell 1.76% on Friday, and the Dow and S&P 500 posted losses of 1.07% and 1.45%, respectively.

Bitcoin Price Action (BTC) – Technical Indicators

This morning, BTC was down 0.48% at $20,431. A mixed start to the day saw BTC rally to an early high of $20,562 before falling to a low of $20,379.

BTC needs to avoid the $20,394 pivot to target the first major resistance level (R1) at $20,824. A move through Saturday’s high of $20,789 would indicate an extended bullish session. Crypto news wires need to be crypto-friendly to support a prolonged rally.

In the event of a prolonged rally, BTC would likely test the second major resistance level (R2) at $21,320, and resistance at $21,500. The third major resistance level (R3) sits at $22,246.

BTC sat below the 50-day EMA ($21,402). The 50-day EMA turned back from the 200-day EMA, and the 100-day EMA turned back from the 200-day EMA, giving bearish signals.

A move through R1 ($20,924) would give the bulls a run on R2 ($21,319) and the 50-day EMA ($21,402). A move through the 50-day EMA would send a bullish signal. However, a failure to move through the 50-day EMA ($21,402) would leave the bears in control.

By Audy Castaneda

ETH Bears to Target $1,350 on Contrasting SEC and CFTC Opinions

Audy Castañeda
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<strong>ETH Bears to Target $1,350 on Contrasting SEC and CFTC Opinions</strong>

On Friday, Ethereum (ETH) fell 0.35%, to end the day below $1,500 for the second session in a row. The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank affected investor confidence, while US economic indicators cushioned the fall. Technical indicators remain bearish, with less than $1,350 in sight.

Ethereum (ETH) fell 0.35% on Friday. After rising 6.20% on Thursday, ETH ended the day at $1,432. ETH ended the day below $1,500 for the second time since January 13.

A bearish start to the day saw ETH drop to a low of $1,370 by late morning. ETH fell through the first major support level (S1) at $1,381 before rising to a late-afternoon high of $1,439. However, failing to reach the first major resistance level (R1) at $1,520, ETH pulled back to end the day in the red.

Shanghai Update Overshadowed by US Banking Sector Troubles

There were no updates on the delayed Shanghai update to distract investors from the US economic calendar and crypto news wires.

With little else for investors to consider, the all-important US Jobs Report attracted interest in the afternoon session. A larger-than-expected rise in nonfarm payrolls and a slower pace of wage growth generated mixed signals. While the US unemployment rate rose from 3.4% to 3.6%, the levels reflect tight labor market conditions, supporting a more hawkish Fed policy outlook.

However, the problems of the US banking sector weighed on ETH and the crypto market in general. On Friday, news broke that US regulators have shut down Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB), whose collapse came on the heels of news that Silvergate Bank was planning to liquidate.

On Thursday, the state of New York filed a lawsuit against KuCoin for violating securities laws by offering tokens, including ETH. The battle for the crypto market continues. This week, the CFTC Chairman called Ethereum a commodity, while SEC Chairman Gary Gensler insisted that all cryptocurrencies except bitcoin (BTC) are securities.

The contrasting views between regulators and legislators demonstrated the failures of US legislators and regulators to provide clear guidelines for crypto-market platforms and, more importantly, for retail investors. The disjointed views are bearish for ETH, leaving investors in limbo until a regulatory framework comes into effect.

Ethereum (ETH) Price Action – Technical Indicators

ETH needs to avoid a drop through R1 and the $1,414 pivot to re-target the second major resistance level (R2) at $1,483, and the morning high of $1,499. A return to $1,480 would signal a bullish session. However, the Shanghai update news and crypto news wires should support ETH to support a breakout.

In the event of a prolonged rally, the bulls would likely test the third major resistance level (R3) at $1,552.

Ethereum broke below the 50-day EMA, currently at $1,528. The 50-day EMA has pulled back from the 200-day EMA, and the 100-day EMA has turned back from the 200-day EMA, giving bearish signals.

A move through R2 ($1,482) would give the bulls another run at the 50-day EMA ($1,528). A break of the 50-day EMA would send a bullish signal. However, a failure to move through the 50-day EMA ($1,528) would leave the bears in the driver’s seat.

By Audy Castaneda

Bears to Target $0.290 on IOHK Weekly Update

Audy Castañeda
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<strong>Bears to Target $0.290 on IOHK Weekly Update</strong>

ADA bucked the broader market trend on Friday, rising 1.94% to end the day at $0.316. Another US Jobs Report and the news that SVB Financial Group closed its doors failed to spook investors with rising TVL numbers. Technical indicators remained bearish, leaving less than $0.285 up for grabs.

ADA rose 1.94% on Friday. Partially reversing a 2.52% loss on Thursday, ADA ended the day at $0.316.

A bearish start to the day saw ADA drop to a low of $0.298 by late morning. ADA briefly fell through the first major support level (S1) at $0.301 before hitting a last-hour high of $0.319. However, being range bound to the first major resistance level (R1) at $0.321, ADA pulled back to end the day at $0.316.

Investors Ignore IOHK Weekly Development Report

Input Output HK (IOHK) released the Weekly Development Report on Friday. The numbers were disappointing, with no new projects launched on the Cardano network for the second week in a row. Increased regulatory and legislative scrutiny could be affecting project launches.

Investors are expected to become more interested in the project’s numbers in the near term. Prior to the Vasil hard fork, the number of projects launched on Cardano was 98, with 1,100 projects built on the Cardano network.

According to DeFi Llama, the total value-locked figures for Cardano have sent bullish signals. This morning, the overall TVL was down 2.28% at $43.74 billion. However, Cardano saw a 4.07% rise to $108.36 million, providing ADA price support.

Input Output HK (IOHK) updates will continue to turn heads. While ADA bucked the downtrend on Friday, the lack of news from the network should leave ADA in the hands of the broader crypto market. The weekly update disappointed for the second week in a row and called into question guarantees of an influx of projects in the first quarter.

News and updates from Binance and FTX of the ongoing SEC vs. Ripple case will continue to be key drivers for the broader crypto market. However, investors should also keep an eye on talks by US lawmakers and regulatory activity following the collapse of SVB Financial Group (SIVB).

ADA Price Action – Technical Indicators

A bullish start to the day saw ADA rise from an initial low of $0.316 to a high of $0.326. ADA briefly broke above the first main resistance level (R1) at $0.324.

ADA has to avoid the $0.311 pivot to re-target the first major resistance level (R1) at $0.324, and the morning high of $0.326. A return to $0.320 would support a bullish session. However, updates to the Cardano network, as well as the broader crypto market, should provide support.

In the event of a breakout, ADA would likely test the second major resistance level (R2) at $0.332. The third main resistance level (R3) sits at $0.353.

ADA broke below the 50-day EMA, currently at $0.329. The 50-day EMA turned back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA pulling back from the 200-day EMA providing bearish signals.

A move through R1 ($0.324) and the 50-day EMA ($0.329) would give the bulls a run at R2 (0.332). However, a failure to move through the 50-day EMA ($0.329) would leave major support levels in play. A move through the 50-day EMA would send a bullish signal.

By Audy Castaneda

XRP Will Target $0.38 to Put $0.40 up for Stake in SEC vs. Ripple Optimism

Audy Castañeda
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<strong>XRP Will Target $0.38 to Put $0.40 up for Stake in SEC vs. Ripple Optimism</strong>

On Friday, XRP saw a second straight day in the red, falling 0.02% to end the day at $0.37115. Troubles in the US banking sector weighed on investor sentiment, overshadowing the renewed optimism of the SEC vs. Ripple. Technical indicators remained bearish, indicating a return to below $0.35.

On Friday, XRP fell 0.02%. Following a 4.57% drop on Thursday, XRP ended the day at $0.37115. Significantly, XRP visited below $0.36 for the first time in four sessions.

A mixed start to the day saw XRP rally to an early high of $0.37468 before pulling back. Missing the first major resistance level (R1) at $0.3908, XRP fell to a late-morning low of $0.35744. However, finding support at the first major support level (S1) at $0.3580, XRP revisited the $0.373 level before falling back into the red.

Hopes of a Ripple Victory in the Case SEC vs. Ripple Delivered support

It was another quiet session on Friday, with no updates on the SEC vs. Ripple to distract investors from cryptocurrency news and the US economic calendar.

Amid heightened regulatory and legislative scrutiny, US banking problems fueled fears of contagion. News of the closure of SVB Financial Group (SIVB) by US regulators dampened investor appetite for riskier assets.

The all-important US Jobs Report also tested investor confidence. Better-than-expected nonfarm payroll numbers boosted bets for a more hawkish Fed policy outlook. However, softer wage growth and an unexpected rise in unemployment limited the damage.

Despite the gloomy session, XRP ended the day relatively flat. Hopes of a Ripple victory in the SEC vs. Ripple continued to provide support. XRP bucks the broader crypto market trend this week. Currently, XRP is up 1.03%, while the crypto market cap is down 7.2%.

Midweek court rulings on expert testimony tipped the scales in Ripple’s favor. In a series of rulings, denying and granting motions by both parties, the Court decided to exclude SEC expert testimony on the “reasonable expectations of an XRP buyer.”

Investors should continue to monitor Binance and FTX news as regulators scrutinize the digital asset space. Regulatory activity and legislator chatter are the focal points. However, updates to the SEC vs. Ripple will continue to be the key factor.

XRP Price Action – Technical Indicators

A mixed start to the day saw XRP fall to an early low of $0.36976, before rising to a high of $0.37718.

XRP needs to avoid the $0.3678 pivot to target the first major resistance level (R1) at $0.3781. A move through the morning high of $0.37718 would indicate a bullish session. However, the broader crypto market and SEC vs. Ripple talk would need to support a breakout.

In the event of a prolonged rally, XRP would likely test the second major resistance level (R2) at $0.3850, and resistance at $0.39. The third main resistance level (R3) sits at $0.4022.

The 50-day EMA turned back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA pulling back from the 200-day EMA. The signals were bearish.

A move through the 50-day EMA ($0.37662) would support a break of R1 ($0.3781) and the 100-day EMA ($0.37876) to reveal the 200-day EMA ($0.38223). However, a failure to move through the 50-day EMA ($0.37662) would leave S1 ($0.3608) in play.

By Audy Castaneda

BTC Still at Risk below $19,500 on Contagion Fears

Audy Castañeda
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<strong>BTC Still at Risk below $19,500 on Contagion Fears</strong>

It was a bearish Friday session, with BTC shedding 0.88%, to end the day at $20,201. Banking sector woes, US economic indicators, as well as the NASDAQ Composite, sent BTC and the broader crypto market into the red. Technical indicators are bearish, with less than $18,500 in sight.

On Friday, Bitcoin (BTC) fell 0.88%. Following a 6.13% drop on Thursday, BTC ended the day at $20,201. BTC ended below $20,000 for the first time since January 14 and extended its losing streak to five sessions.

A bearish start to the day saw BTC fall from an early high of $20,382 to a late-morning low of $19,592. BTC fell through the first major support level (S1) at $19,699, before a partial recovery during the afternoon session. BTC briefly reviewed the $20,300 handle, before pulling back to end the day at $20,201.

US Banking Troubles, Fear of the Fed and Biden Weigh on Sentiment

Fed Fear continued to put pressure on BTC and the broader crypto market on Friday. US economic indicators were supportive in the afternoon, although immediate gains in response to the US Jobs Report were short-lived.

US Non-Farm Payrolls increased by 311k in February, versus an expected 205k increase. In January, Non-Farm Payrolls increased by 504k. While the headline numbers were bullish, wage growth slowed, and the US unemployment rate increased from 3.4% to 3.6%.

Softer wage growth and a rise in the US unemployment rate were bearish, though unlikely enough to force the Fed to reconsider its more aggressive policy targets.

While the statistics generated interest, US banking problems weighed on the NASDAQ Composite Index and the crypto market. Contagion fears in the financial sector weighed on riskier assets. Investors responded to the news that regulators have shut down SVB Financial Group (SIVB).

The NASDAQ Composite Index fell 1.76% on Friday, and the Dow and S&P 500 posted losses of 1.07% and 1.45%, respectively.

Weighted by contagion fears, intensifying scrutiny from regulators and lawmakers continued to test buyers’ appetites. This week, the US administration resumed its battle against cryptocurrencies and removed a cryptocurrency tax subsidy as part of the 2024 budget.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action – Technical Indicators

A mixed start to the day saw BTC drop to an initial low of $20,185, before rising to a high of $20,789. BTC briefly broke above the first major resistance level (R1) at $20,525.

BTC needs to avoid the $20,058 pivot to refocus the first major resistance level (R1) at $20,525, and the morning high of $20,789. A return to $20,700 would indicate a prolonged bullish session. Crypto news wires need to be crypto-friendly to support a prolonged rally.

In the event of a prolonged rally, BTC would likely test the second major resistance level (R2) at $20,848, and resistance at $21,000. The third major resistance level (R3) sits at $21,638.

BTC sat below the 50-day EMA ($21,761). The 50-day EMA turned back from the 200-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA pulling back from the 200-day EMA, providing bearish signals.

A move through R1 ($20,525) would give the bulls another run into R2 ($20,848) to bring R3 ($21,638) and the 50-day EMA ($21,761) into view. A move through the 50-day EMA would send a bullish signal. However, a failure to move through the 50-day EMA ($21,761) would leave the bears in control.

By Audy Castaneda

BTC Eyes under $19,500 in US Jobs Report and President Biden News

Audy Castañeda
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0
BTC Eyes under $19,500 in US Jobs Report and President Biden News

It was a bearish session on Thursday, with BTC tumbling 6.13% to end the day at $20,381. News from Silvergate Bank and US President Joe Biden’s US budget sent BTC and the broader crypto market to red hot. Technical indicators are bearish, with less than $20,000 in sight.

On Thursday, Bitcoin (BTC) fell 6.13%. Following a 2.23% drop on Wednesday, BTC ended the day at $20,381. BTC ended the day below $21,000 for the first time since January 18.

A mixed start to the day saw BTC rally to an early high of $21,836. Failing to reach the first major resistance level (R1) at $22,130, BTC fell to a Thursday night low of $20,086. BTC fell through major support levels, to end the day at $20,086.

US President Joe Biden and Silvergate Bank Sink Bitcoin (BTC)

Thursday’s session was bearish for riskier assets. US economic data took a backseat, with a larger-than-expected rise in US jobless claims failing to ease Fed fears ahead of the US Jobs Report.

Initial jobless claims in the US rose from 190,000 to 211,000, versus an expected increase of 195,000. Following stronger-than-expected ADP and JOLT job listings, investor jitters sent the composite index NASDAQ fell 2.05% on Thursday.

Banking sector woes added to market stress, as investors responded to news that SVB Financial Group (SIVB) announced a $1.75bn share sale to support its balance sheet and to address the impact of falling deposits.

The NASDAQ mini is down 32.25 points this morning. While Fed fears and banking problems weighed on investor sentiment, crypto newswires had the last word.

Additional investor reactions to the collapse of Silvergate Bank and US President Joe Biden’s crypto tax plans weighed on the broader crypto market.

On Thursday, the White House targeted cryptocurrency miners and Biden announced plans to end a cryptocurrency tax strategy in his 2024 budget. According to the announcement, the White House plans to save $24 billion by removing a subsidy. of crypto taxes related to transactions related to cryptocurrencies.

The administration would save an estimated $24 billion by applying similar tax rules to bonds and securities.

Bitcoin (BTC) Action Price – Technical Indicators

This morning, BTC was down 1.15% at $20,146. A bearish start to the day saw BTC drop from an initial high of $20,382 to a low of $20,070.

BTC needs to move through the $20,768 pivot to target the first major resistance level (R1) at $21,449, and Thursday’s high of $21,836. A return to $21,500 would signal a bullish session. US crypto news leads and economic indicators should be crypto-friendly to support a prolonged rally.

In the event of a prolonged rally, BTC would likely test the second major resistance level (R2) at $22,518. The third major resistance level (R3) sits at $24,268.

A move through R1 ($21,449) would give bulls a run on the 50-day EMA ($22,215) and R2 ($22,518). A move through the 50-day EMA would send a bullish signal. However, a failure to break above the 50-day EMA ($21,215) would leave major support levels in play.

By Audy Castaneda

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