Pre and Post Halving Investment Strategies in Bitcoin

Audy Castañeda
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Pre and Post Halving Investment Strategies in Bitcoin

The dynamics of the behavior of the exchange value of Bitcoin in the pre-halving and post-halving stages are described below.

Investing in Bitcoin is a complex topic from any point of view. In a context dominated by halving expectations, however, this reality faces additional particularities. This means that at the time of the halving, the usual investment strategies must be different.

On April 18, the 4/32 halving will take place on the Bitcoin blockchain and from then on, experts and investors expect that the reward cut event will cause strong purchasing pressure in the pioneering digital currency.

However, this is not a mechanical event where the BTC price reacts immediately after the halving. There are historical patterns of currency behavior that offer some clues to possible movements related to the event. Considering these patterns, investors stick to corresponding investment strategies.

Investing in the Bitcoin Halving Era

It can be said that investing in Bitcoin in the halving year offers different results compared to years further away. According to proponents of the cyclical BTC price theory, the entire trend of the coin is divided into 4-year periods. In turn, these are divided into two sub-cycles: bullish and bearish.

Consequently, the year of the halving and the following are considered periods of rising prices. Meanwhile, the years further away are those of bear markets, with the so-called winters dominating the scene. The market sentiment in both periods is completely different.

These cycles do not always happen in a mathematically exact way. For example, at the end of the 2020-21 bull market, only 2022 was a bear market or winter, while 2023 was a notable recovery, with Bitcoin growing by 160%. Thus, both 2024-25 would be bullish, in theory.

The fact that a very powerful rise in 2024 could bring about a corrective and even bearish period in 2025 must be kept on the radar. As can be seen, in this market the forecasts are usually highly treacherous. With that in consideration, a Bitcoin investment strategy must be flexible enough, as well as hoping for a good dose of luck, to be successful.

BTC Pre Halving Price

2023 was an atypical year in which macroeconomic conditions allowed a much greater recovery than expected. From $16,000 during the winter, the currency managed to reach approximately $40,000 per unit. In 2024, the bullish trend was reinforced amid the spot ETF rush on the New York Stock Exchange.

Regardless of the weight of the currency’s performance, the halving price movement pattern appears to hold. The halving is just a few weeks away, so Bitcoin investment strategies from the current point on should have considerably limited gains.

BTC Post Halving Price

The post halving is where most of the heavy artillery is in terms of the market exchange value of BTC. The real bull-run is expected to occur specifically at that later stage. Despite this, there should be no confusion at this stage.

Any strategy should not aim to take profits on April 18 or even in the months after the halving. In fact, historical data from previous halvings shows that the price of Bitcoin rises about a year after the cut. This does not exclude the possibility that the price of the currency maintains an upward trend immediately after the cut.

Bitcoin price cycles are a guide to investing and not an exact manual. Market conditions mean that each cycle has its particularities. Therefore, a strategy that is not very flexible could end in disappointment for investors.

By Audy Castaneda

Bitcoin Miners Struggle to Maintain Operations Ahead of Halving

Leonardo Perez
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Bitcoin Miners Struggle to Maintain Operations Ahead of Halving

This year’s Bitcoin halving will reduce the mining reward to 3,125 BTC, putting miners’ profitability at risk. CryptoQuant reports a 30% drop in miners’ hash price since the last halving, with a further decline expected. Competition and costs rise, and the Bitcoin network hashrate reaches 600 EH/s, affecting profits.

In approximately 10 days, the Bitcoin community will witness a significant event: The Bitcoin halving. This phenomenon will halve the reward for mining a Bitcoin block, from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC, putting pressure on miners’ profitability.

Miners are now in a race against time, needing higher Bitcoin prices to maintain their profits.

Reasons Why Bitcoin Miners Will Face Challenges

According to a CryptoQuant report shared with BeInCrypto, miners’ hashrate has fallen 30% since the last halving in May 2020. Currently valued at $0.11 per Terahash per second, this figure is about to fall to $0.055 after the halving, assuming stable market conditions:

“The hash price is the average income a miner earns each time they try to find a valid block of Bitcoin,” CryptoQuant stated.

Additionally, Bitcoin transaction fees have seen a dramatic decline. They plummeted from 412 Bitcoin per day in mid-December 2023 to just 29 Bitcoin, a 90% reduction.

Currently, transaction fees contribute only 3% to the total block reward, which is a significant decrease from 37% in mid-December 2023. Additionally, competition between miners has reached unprecedented levels.

The Bitcoin network hashrate, which indicates total computing power, has skyrocketed to 600 exahashes per second (EH/s), up from 116 EH/s since the last halving. This increase means that miners must work harder and use more resources to mine the same amount of Bitcoin, and the cost of mining, or hashcoin, has increased tenfold since May 2020.

In response to these challenges, some miners have stepped up their Bitcoin selling activities. For example, daily sales to over-the-counter (OTC) desks reached 1,600 BTC in late March, the highest figure since August 2023.

At the same time, Bitcoin reserves held by miners have been on a steady downward trajectory over the past year. A significant sell-off by Bitcoin miners may, in fact, put pressure on the price of Bitcoin.

Not All Mining Companies Battle for Bitcoin Halving

Despite the abovementioned difficulties, not all mining companies are struggling. While major players like RIOT Platforms, Core Scientific, Bitfarms, and Marathon Digital have reported declines in Bitcoin production, CleanSpark has seen an increase. Such variation highlights the different effects of market dynamics and operational problems on mining companies.

However, Sheraz Ahmed, managing partner at Storm Partners, offers a different perspective. He maintains that the mining industry does not need special preparation for the halving, since market forces will end up stabilizing the situation. Ahmed explained to BeInCrypto the following:

“Miners get less Bitcoin for a similar amount of mining, but the price should reflect this, or the hash rate can stabilize on its own, becoming almost the perfect market. Any discrepancies can be rebalanced. It’s similar to gold, so I don’t think you have to prepare for it any more than anything else.”

Halving cases in the past support Ahmed’s opinion. The total daily revenue of the Bitcoin mining industry has reached new highs in 2024, with a record of $79 million on March 6 and $67 million today. This is 3.5 times higher than revenue just before the May 2020 halving.

Such figures suggest that despite the immediate challenges, the industry may find a new balance after the halving.

By Leonardo Perez

XRP and Bitcoin Latest News

Audy Castañeda
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XRP and Bitcoin Latest News

ETF speculation and SEC case influence XRP bullish trend. Halving effects and ETF flow dynamics are discussed below

According to Santiment, market sentiment towards the XRP Ledger/XRP was positive at the end of the session on Monday (UTC). XRP was a trending coin, with 51.72% positive versus 30.5% negative. However, the influence of the SEC vs. Ripple on XRP remains a dominant factor.

Meanwhile, according to Farside Investors, the BTC spot ETF market recorded net outflows of $245.1 million, excluding iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) flow data.

XRP Recent News

There were no updates related to the SEC vs. Ripple that affect the demand for XRP by buyers. However, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse offered a bullish outlook on the cryptocurrency market despite SEC cases against Ripple, Coinbase (COIN), Kraken, Binance and others.

Garlinghouse reportedly spoke to CNBC and said the following:

“I’ve been in this industry for a long time and I’ve seen these trends come and go. I am very optimistic. “I think the macro trends, the big things like ETFs, are driving real institutional money for the first time.”

XRP Price Analysis

The bears’ failure to capitalize on XRP’s decline below the uptrend line may have attracted buyers who pushed the price above the moving averages on April 8.

The flat moving averages and the RSI just above the midpoint suggest short-term range-bound action. The XRP/USDT pair could fluctuate between $0.56 and $0.69 for a few more days.

Buyers will have to kick the price above $0.69 to improve prospects of a rally to the formidable resistance at $0.74. Instead, if the bears want to take the reins, they will have to sink and keep the price below $0.56. Then, the pair could fall to $0.52 and subsequently to $0.48.

BTC Recent News

The Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) recorded net inflows of $6.3 million on April 8, up from $83.0 million (April 5). Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) recorded net inflows of $40.3 million after seeing total net inflows of $47.0 million in the week ending April 5. Meanwhile, Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) saw net outflows increase from $144 million (April 5) to $303 million (April 8).

GBTC outflows data disappointed, with investors expecting outflows to trend lower. Last week, news came that Genesis had completed its $2.1 billion GBTC share sale. Monday’s outflow data suggests that selling trends could continue to impact total BTC spot ETF market flows despite BTC price movements. GBTC saw a surge in outflows even though BTC revisited the $72,500 level. However, investor sentiment towards demand and the bitcoin halving event influenced buyers’ appetite for BTC.

On Sunday, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse predicted that the cryptocurrency market would double to $5 trillion by the end of 2024. Garlinghouse based his prediction on BTC spot ETF market demand and falling supply. derived from the Bitcoin halving event.

BTC Price Analysis

On April 8, Bitcoin broke out of the symmetrical triangle pattern, indicating that the bulls have dominated the bears.

The BTC/USDT pair is likely to retest the all-time high of $73,777. This level can act as an important barrier, but if the bulls overcome it, the pair could start the next leg of the uptrend towards the pattern target of $84,000.

The bears are running out of time. If they want to rally, they will have to get the pair back below the 20-day EMA ($68,335). If that happens, the pair may fall to the 50-day SMA ($64,828).

By Audy Castaneda

Gryphon Reaches 100% in Clean Energy Operations, and other Top Bitcoin Mining News of the Week

Leonardo Perez
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Gryphon Reaches 100% in Clean Energy Operations, and other Top Bitcoin Mining News of the Week

A new week closes for the broader cryptocurrency sector with mixed news. The halving is less than two weeks away and its implications could be enormous. While expectations focus on the impact it will have on the price of BTC, the consequences will be notable in the restructuring of the mining industry.

Publicly traded Bitcoin mining company Gryphon Digital Mining reached a new milestone recently. In that sense, it became one of the first to achieve 100% energy use from clean sources. The company said it was proud of this achievement and aspires to continue on this path of environmental preservation.

The company’s achievement was certified by the auditor CarbonChain, which functions as an energy use meter. The latter certified in its report that the mining firm has so far reached 100% in renewable energy from 98% in 2023.

This is an important step by the firm and one that dismisses some of the classic accusations in the sector. With this, the mining business is moving quickly as one of the most advanced in ESG policies.

Bhutan Plans to Double its Mining Capacity

Bhutan, one of the poorest Asian countries, found in Bitcoin mining one of the supports on which its economy rests. For years, national authorities have had businesses in this industry to generate valuable resources for the State.

A few days after the halving of the largest cryptocurrency network, the government announced new plans. According to Bloomberg, the country’s national authorities hope to double its mining capacity in alliance with the Bitdeer firm.

Thus, the Kingdom of Himalaya mining site will have a doubled capacity by next year 2025. The plan aims to maintain current income after the Bitcoin halving, which will cut rewards by 50%.

Ban on Digital Mining in Paraguay

One of the most coveted locations for Bitcoin mining companies could become an inhospitable place for the industry. The hot season in the South American country is causing a hostile reaction towards the mining sector, but also towards the entire crypto environment.

According to specialized media reports, detractors of digital currencies want to prohibit the mining and also the staking of digital currencies. Some even want to go a step further by banning any expression of digital wallets of virtual currencies.

With this, one of the countries with the most energy surpluses on the continent and ideal for mining with clean energy, could become a hostile one. It should be noted that the proposal was introduced by a group of legislators and it must face a long road if it wants to become law.

IREN Increased its Profits a Few Weeks Before Halving

Less than two weeks remain until the Bitcoin halving occurs. During the last few months, large companies have embarked on a crusade to increase computing power that would allow them to stay afloat after the cut. Consequently, the revenues of those companies increased dramatically.

Thus, the increase in mining power, the fall in inflation in the US and the powerful increase in the price of BTC combined. Additionally, network commissions also rose to generate greater funds for mining firms.

One of these companies, Iris Energy Limited (IREN) managed to maintain an average of 7.1 EH/s of computing power in March. As a result, his income increased sharply during that month. According to the media, income rose by no less than 56% to $23.7 million. By the end of 2024 the company expects to reach 20 EH/s.

By Leonardo Perez

Blockchain Scalability – Facing the Future of Digital Transactions

Audy Castañeda
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Blockchain Scalability – Facing the Future of Digital Transactions

Scalability is a challenge due to the nature and design of this technology, especially due to the verification method that decentralization provides.

Scalability in Blockchain refers to the ability of a network to grow and adapt as its users and transactions increase. It is one of the obstacles that this technology posed from the beginning.

Growth in this context not only refers to the ability to process more transactions, but also to store data and manage the number of nodes running on the network.

This problem occurs because the blocks of decentralized networks have a limit size, which is equal to a limit of transactions per second. In this way, the transaction capacity is limited.

Likewise, it happens with the information capable of being stored and the nodes, since the larger the information, the more complex it is to administer and manage these two aspects.

It is a complex problem, because if the size of the blocks is increased, scalability can be improved, but at the same time it also increases the complexity of the network and the difficulty of reaching a consensus.

Blockchain technology today enjoys great adoption, however, to achieve massive use, it is necessary to first achieve scalable and not limited Blockchains. Thus, many sectors could implement large-scale projects that are based on decentralization.

To delve deeper into this topic and the solutions that are being developed, though, it is best to address the challenges and then the solutions.

Challenges Posed by Blockchain Scalability

The fundamental challenge of Blockchain lies in the difficulty of simultaneously developing the three key characteristics of Blockchain, that is, scalability, decentralization and security.

Achieving high scalability is feasible at the risk of lower security. While greater security and decentralization would come at the risk of lower scalability. This is not an absolute truth, but rather this trilemma reflects how difficult it is for Blockchain to expand in these areas.

One of the reasons why Blockchain is complex to scale is that nodes must verify each transaction and add it to the blockchain. So as the size of the network increases, it takes longer for nodes to verify each transaction. This results in much slower transaction times.

Another challenge around scalability is transaction pricing. The truth is that most major Blockchains are expensive to transact. Therefore, technologies that solve this problem need to be cheaper.

This happens in the case of Ethereum, which today handles slow transaction times and high commissions. Let us remember that its speed is 15 transactions per second, much lower than Visa’s 24,000 transactions per second, for example.

As solutions for scalability are found, decentralized Blockchains face other challenges in implementing the solutions: One of them is governance. Achieving consensus is a complex issue among large decentralized networks, which is why innovation is a challenge.

Glimpsing a Scalable Future

Scalability is a huge challenge for Blockchain technology to the extent that it has been complex to advance it without sacrificing another of the two main qualities that identify it. However, by dreaming of a fully scalable future, a general expansion of decentralized finance may be envisioned.

Companies from various sectors are currently adopting this technology, despite the fact that scalability represents a limitation. Therefore, great scalability would allow general adoption.

Centralized platforms currently continue to be the best options in terms of banking transactions, due to their speed and ease of use. Beyond that, there are no great reasons to continue using them and Blockchain technology far exceeds its benefits.

By Audy Castaneda

Bitcoin Ready for a New Week

Leonardo Perez
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Bitcoin Ready for a New Week

The element with the greatest weight is the publication of the March CPI inflation numbers in the United States.

All data related to the US are in the top positions of importance for the crypto market. This is because it is the largest market for these digital assets. Added to this is that both Bitcoin and the rest of the currencies have a close correlation with Uncle Sam’s financial markets.

However, that is not to say that events in other developed countries are not important. In fact, many of the numbers announced in regions such as the European Union, the United Kingdom and Asian markets may have a notable impact on the pioneering digital currency.

Below are the facts that will have real influence on risk assets. By default, the impact of these on Bitcoin is almost identical, considering the aforementioned correlation between both types of financial assets.

The Macro Calendar Data That Could Move Bitcoin This Week

Since spot Bitcoin NFTs went public in January, the macroeconomic calendar has a greater influence on the cryptocurrency. The correlation between stock assets and the token is increasing as institutional capital flows into ETFs.

Consequently, macroeconomic movements already have a direct connection with BTC price movements. This week, as already mentioned, the most important item on the calendar is the status of the March consumer price index (CPI) in the United States. This indicator is decisive for monetary policy decisions at FOMC meetings.

For some context, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services. The CPI reflects spending patterns for each of two population groups: all urban consumers and urban wage earners and clerical workers. The all urban consumer group represents over 90 percent of the total US population. It is based on the expenditures of almost all residents of urban or metropolitan areas, including professionals, the self-employed, the poor, the unemployed, and retired people, as well as urban wage earners and clerical workers.

The next Committee meeting will be in early May and a cut in the federal funds rate is expected. This is subject to the state of inflation and hence the importance of this data. When the Fed lowers the benchmark rate, it becomes easier to borrow. That appears to be beneficial, but it could cause a possible spike in inflation.

Other important announcements have to do with the Canadian central bank’s monetary policy decision on Wednesday. “The good news is that monetary policy is working, and inflation has come a long way down. We’re not all the way back to target, and we know we need to finish the job,” said Bank of Canada senior deputy governor Carolyn Rogers in a speech before the Halifax Partnership last week. “But we have made a lot of progress. And so, it’s a good time to reflect on how the economy has changed in Canada and around the world and to think about what those changes mean for the future.”

On the same Wednesday, the president of the Chicago Fed, Austan Golsbee, will give statements. Likewise, the minutes of the recent FOMC meeting will be published. The following day, on Thursday, the ECB will announce monetary measures for the euro zone. These are the most important data on the macroeconomic calendar that could influence Bitcoin this week.

There are other relevant elements such as the producer price index in the US. Likewise, the consumer sentiment index for April will be released on Friday. This latest report is from the University of Michigan and is one of the classic indicators.

By Leonardo Perez

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