Bitcoin’s Price after Rising to USD 9,400, according to Top Cryptocurrency Traders

Alexander Salazar
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Bitcoin’s Price after Rising to USD 9,400, according to Top Cryptocurrency Traders

There are discussions on both bearish and bullish scenarios for Bitcoin as the halving approaches. The main cryptocurrency traders give their opinion on what might happen.

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) rose from USD 7,700 to USD 9,500 in just 48 hours from April 29th and April 30th, increasing by more than 22%. The market has cooled since then, with the main cryptocurrency falling below USD 9,000.

According to data on spot market transactions, futures volume, and institutional demand, among other key data, the rise from USD 3,000 to USD 8,000 was purely organic. Actual demand from retail investors, and possibly from whales, is what boosted it, as well as the upcoming Bitcoin halving.

It is unclear whether the rapid rise from USD 8,000 to USD 9,500 was organic or caused by fake futures market orders. According to Skew, futures volume increased greatly when Bitcoin went from USD 8,000 to USD 9,500, while it remained relatively low throughout April.

The halving of Bitcoin rewards will occur in a few days and will have a significant impact on the Bitcoin mining industry. It will immediately reduce the amount of Bitcoin that producers can mine per block, lowering the rate of new Bitcoin introduced into the market. The halving mechanism complements Bitcoin’s trend as it approaches its fixed supply of 21 million.

Bullish Scenario for Bitcoin

Bitcoin’s bullish scenario in the short and medium term is quite simple, as Thies explained. Technical indicators such as the moving average of convergence/divergence (MACD) for short periods ‒ even weekly ‒ signal the start of a new bullish movement.

Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI) is in the range from 80% to 90%. A reading of over 75% suggests high overbought conditions for an asset. However, the RSI can remain oversold for a long time during proper recovery. In other words, if Bitcoin can avoid a significant drop to the USD 4,000-5,000 range, it will very probably continue its uptrend.

More traders lean towards a bearish scenario for Bitcoin

Following Bitcoin’s rejection at USD 9,500 and its re-entry into the USD 8,000 region, more traders consider that Bitcoin could see a local ceiling rather than a bullish continuation above USD 10,000. Crypto trader Michael van de Poppe said that it is unlikely to see USD 4,000 and USD 5,000 again, but a healthy return to the USD 6,000 zone is reasonable.

Another trader, known as Big Chonis Trading, noted that Bitcoin’s strong boom since late April led to the formation of a “TD9” on Bitcoin’s daily chart. TD9 is a sell signal in the TD Sequential system that is triggered when an asset sees an overextended rally and must be corrected.

Zoran Kole, a cryptocurrency technical analyst, stated that the range from USD 7,700 to USD 8,000 is the next rational area of ​​support for Bitcoin. He noted that to USD 9,500, bears suffered from excessive bullish movement, and bulls were euphoric, increasing the probability of it being a ceiling.

Negative short-term projections for Bitcoin are in line with the bearish scenario that Thies described, saying that a drop below USD 7,000 would increase the probability that the downtrend would resume.

By Alexander Salazar

A Study Shows a Higher Volatility of Bitcoin against the US Dollar than against Tether

Alexander Salazar
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A Study Shows a Higher Volatility of Bitcoin against the US Dollar than against Tether

One of the key factors could be a greater level of liquidity in the BTC-USDT pair. Among other reasons, Kaiko highlights the regulatory scenario regarding the US fiat currency.

A recent study reveals that the current volatility of the Bitcoin market is greater concerning the national fiat currency of the USA, the US dollar (USD), than with respect to the stablecoin Tether (USDT). The firm Kaiko was in charge of conducting the study, whose title is “Tether vs. USD, is a dollar a dollar when it comes to trading?”

In this report, which was published last April 30th, the analysis firm Kaiko concludes that, in a period of 1 year, there were greater fluctuations in the intraday price movements in the BTC/USD pair than in the BTC-USDT pair. According to their estimates, Kaiko analyzed data from exchanges such as Coinbase, Binance, Okex, and Bitfinex.

In the first period over the past year, the study found that the BTC/USDT closing prices were slightly less volatile (between 92% and 98%) than their BTC/USD counterparts. After that, there was a period in which both pairs had an almost identical behavior. Finally, the disparity returned at the beginning of 2020, when the volatility against USDT was greater. That moment of greater volatility of Tether coincided with the period of market decline, between March and April of this year.

Kaiko estimates that one of the possible key factors is liquidity. In their study, they found a trading volume of the BTC/USDT pair that exceeded USD 160 million. In its BTC/USD counterpart, that trading volume was about USD 21 million. In other words, it was 7 times higher with Tether than with US dollars.

The analysis firm says in the study titled “Tether vs. USD, is a dollar a dollar when it comes to trading?” that:

“The analysis of daily volumes shows that the trading involving the stablecoin was at least 2 times more liquid than the fiat currency at all times, which is a sign of solidity.”

One of the other reasons that the study explores is based on structural differences related to different regulatory regimes between fiat-based or stablecoin-based businesses.

Stablecoins and Bitcoin’s Volatility

Kaiko based its study on data obtained between April 1st, 2019, and March 31st, 2020. The end of this period coincides precisely with the month of the highest volatility of Bitcoin in the past 6 years, according to data from Blockforce Capital.

Stablecoins benefited from this situation since this type of crypto assets is designed to maintain a stable value concerning another asset. In the case of Tether, among others, the asset parity is anchored to the US dollar.

It was precisely last March when the market crisis due to the coronavirus pandemic led Bitcoin to drop to USD 4,000. After March 12th, stablecoins reached a new capitalization ceiling, according to data from Coin Metrics.

By Alexander Salazar

Cryptocurrency Ecosystem to Receive Third Bitcoin Having amid Many Expectations

Alexander Salazar
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Cryptocurrency Ecosystem to Receive Third Bitcoin Having amid Many Expectations

Analysts suggest that the event will be different from the reductions by half occurring in 2016 and 2012. All this takes place amid the coronavirus pandemic, a recession, and the intention of central banks to test digital currencies.

Similarly to the Olympic Games or the Soccer World Cup, the Bitcoin halving is an event that occurs every four years. In this third edition, scheduled to occur around May 13th, some aspects make it different from what happened in 2016 and 2012.

The reduction in the issuance of coins from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC per block mined is transcendental on the Bitcoin network. This event will affect everything, including digital mining itself, cryptocurrency markets, and even the development of applications.

Bitcoin is receiving greater attention from the media with big networks talking about the subject and millions of users consulting the Internet about the Bitcoin halving.

A New Picture

According to a study by the firm CryptoCompare, the current cryptocurrency market is very different from that of 2016. That year, the daily Bitcoin trading volume on exchanges seldom exceeded USD 1 trillion. The figure has recently reached USD 20 trillion.

According to metrics from TokenInsight, the profitability of S9 miners in 2016 went from about USD 20 per day, before the halving, to about USD 8 per day, after the reduction of miners’ incentives by half. Currently, S 17 miners are reportedly generating less than USD 5 per day before the halving, which would eliminate their profitability shortly.

 This information suggests that users could progressively disconnect S9 miners as they would become inefficient. Besides, once the reduction in the issuance of coins occurs, there could be a short-term increase in the fees per transaction on the network.

External Elements

Apart from some internal factors on the network, some other elements could be affecting, somehow, what is happening with BTC and the cryptocurrency market.

The main aspect to take into account is the spread of the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 and the COVID-19 disease. The international health crisis has already caused more than 3.2 million people to become infected and 235,000 to die, but there is not yet a vaccine against this virus.

Last March 11th, the World Health Organization (WHO) decreed a world pandemic due to the coronavirus. This led to a drop in the price of Bitcoin, which went from about USD 8,000 to below USD 4,000, in less than 24 hours.

This situation has led many countries to completely or partially paralyze their economies, creating low demand for commodities. The previous scenario for Bitcoin also showed an unprecedented situation: negative oil prices for the first time in history.

Besides, many countries are currently testing their digital currency projects. Even Facebook’s Libra has just changed its course with a basket of stablecoins, a few days before the halving.

Amid this economic turbulence, Bitcoin has even shown better performance than gold, with higher profitability so far this year, and facing the first major crisis after its creation in 2008.

Now, a few days until the Bitcoin halving occurs, there is the expectation of what will be the reaction of the markets, how the community will react to this new cryptocurrency mining phase, and most importantly, how this project will develop in the face of a greater adoption in the years to come.

By Alexander Salazar

Bitcoin Price Increased more than 20 % During April

Maria Rodríguez
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Bitcoin Price Increased more than 20 % During April

The value of this cryptocurrency not only quickly overcame the initial crisis that the Covid-19 generated, but its price has managed to be stable during these days.

During last April, the price of Bitcoin recovered remarkably from the fall it suffered on March 12th, due to the uncertainty that the Covid-19 pandemic generated, which also caused the fall of traditional markets, on a day called “Black Thursday”.

That March 12th, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) fell, in a few hours, from USD 7,850 to less than USD 4,000. In some exchange houses, the price even reached between 3,800 and 3,600 dollars per unit, whilst market indices placed the price of the main cryptocurrency at around USD 4,100, one of the lowest prices historically recorded.

Despite that negative record in March, the price of BTC increased by 20% during April, even when the uncertainty regarding the Covid-19 outbreak remains. A positive factor for this rise in the price of Bitcoin seems to be the halving, an event that occurs every four years and that, in this third edition, will occur on May 12th.

Halving is the scheduled event that reduces the bitcoin reward on each mined block. This is what could lead to a higher demand for bitcoins and; therefore, to a further rise in prices.

Stable Prices

On April 29th, the price of Bitcoin was USD 7,837, and the next day it reached USD 9,422. In this way, in a single day of operations, the price of Bitcoin increased by almost USD 1,600 (15 %). Then, it fell slightly to close the month below the USD 9,000 barrier. However, this was a major recovery.

Due to this rapid recovery, the community has declared April as the month in which the digital currency began to recover its value in stages. This has also demonstrated the usefulness of the cryptocurrency.

When May is just beginning, the price of Bitcoin dropped a little. On May 3rd, each BTC was equivalent to about USD 8,847.82, a price that could be maintained or even rise again, when the halving is just a few days away.

The current value of each BTC is not bad, considering the sharp drop in March. Despite that drop, BTC continues to maintain a high and stable price. These increases have generated positive expectations among investors. Even US citizens resorted to the purchase of BTC, according to Brian Armstrong, CEO of Coinbase, who commented, last April, that there was spontaneous growth in the purchase of BTC for amounts of USD 1,200.

The crypto exchange Binance US also received deposits of USD 1,200 in the purchase of cryptocurrencies, an amount equivalent to the financial aid that the US Government delivered some people who lost their jobs during the quarantine decreed to prevent Covid-19.

But the event that could boost the price of Bitcoin and generate more expectations is still the halving. Analysts comment that hash levels on the network continue to rise. This increase in hash levels could be an effort the mining community is making to obtain profits before the halving. This behavior could also generate an impact on the main markets.

The last halving was very positive and took place in 2016. At the beginning of that year, the price of BTC was only USD 400 but in July, when the halving occurred, it rose to USD 650. Then, the price of Bitcoin approached USD 1,000 again at the end of the year, and, in July 2017, it was around USD 2,500. The entire mining community will be vigilant in the coming days.

By María Rodríguez

Presidential Decree to Create a Blockchain Network in Brazil

Alexander Salazar
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Presidential Decree to Create a Blockchain Network in Brazil

The blockchain network aims to offer quality public services to users. In the decree, the government established about 18 objectives related to new technologies.

The current president of Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro, signed a decree where there is a proposal for creating a blockchain platform for the country’s federal government, according to information from local media.

Later, the Federal Official Gazette published Decree No. 10,332, which the President had signed on April 28th. The initiative is part of the plans to implement a digital government for the period between 2020 and 2022. The plan aims to regain Brazilians’ confidence through effective policies and quality public services, as the decree states.

In the document, the government drafted 18 objectives to be fulfilled, with their respective initiatives, to achieve the digitization of the country’s public services. In Besides, the text explains how this platform will allow the federal government to have greater interoperability, streamlining various processes for companies, and offering digital solutions in the country’s public services.

In this regard, the decree highlights the following goal:

A smart government, which implements effective policies based on data, shows evidence that it proactively anticipates and solves the needs of citizens and organizations, as well as promotes a competitive and attractive investment environment.

Excerpt from Decree No. 10,332.

According to local media, the eighth objective of the decree is one of the most interesting included in the document. This indicates how the use of artificial intelligence will allow developing the new public services of the future and emerging technologies. Also, it notes that the implementation of blockchain technology in the federal public administration will occur in 2020.

Brazil Plans to Adopt Blockchain Technology

The decree also indicates that the implementation of resources that facilitate the creation of the blockchain network will help to the interoperability of the federal government in 2022.

In this sense, the twelfth objective is one of the most closely related to blockchain technology. This deals with the implementation of citizens’ digital identity and seeks to make this system available to 40 million inhabitants by 2022. For that reason, the Brazilian government wants to allow citizens to make digital signatures for that same year.

The sixteenth objective is another point in this decree that has drawn attention since it refers to the optimization of information technology infrastructures. In addition to proposing a change targeting structural software solutions, the Brazilian government plans to use the cloud for the migration of various services.

On April 24th, the Brazilian presidency also opened a tender to hire a specialized blockchain company. The aim was to provide the government with a solution in the creation and governance of a shared network.

At the beginning of April, local media also reported that the Central Bank of Brazil had launched PIER. That is a blockchain platform that incorporates a comprehensive database, which will be integrated into three Brazilian institutions. The platform is already running on JPMorgan’s Quorum blockchain.

By Alexander Salazar

Blockchain Project to Manage Energy Exchange Is Developed in Spanish and French Universities

Alexander Salazar
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Blockchain Project to Manage Energy Exchange Is Developed in Spanish and French Universities

Several universities from the Basque Country, Navarra, and Catalonia participate in the project. The energy management system will use a blockchain whose name is still unknown.

A project seeks to use a blockchain to integrate universities from Spain, France, and Andorra into the same energy consumption management system, using a blockchain. This is EKATE, a program that received funding from the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF).

This project is part of the Interreg V-A Spain-France-Andorra Program (POCTEFA 2014-2020), which the European Union created. The main objective is to integrate these border countries into a system with efficient and intelligent electrical energy management services.  They plan to do it through the generation of renewable photovoltaic energy and shared self-consumption, as the project describes.

The website smartgridsinfo.es stated that higher-education institutions from regions such as the Atlantic Pyrenees, the Basque Country, Catalonia, Navarra, and the Eastern Pyrenees have already joined this project.

Among the institutions currently participating in EKATE, the Higher School of Advanced Industrial Technologies is the most prominent. There are also the University of the Basque Country and the International Center for Digital Engineering Methods. The list is completed by Enercluster Association, the company Tecsol and the Association for the development of renewable energies in the Derbi building and industry.

Neither the note nor the presentation of the project indicates the name of the blockchain on which the EKATE energy management system will work. They do not specify the process that this system will undergo. The text makes it clear that this project, launched in December 2019, will complete its life cycle at the end of May 2022.

The process will consist of a diagnosis, a phase of review, and implementation of two pilot experiences, as well as its subsequent evaluation and extension plans. The program aims to implement “innovative technologies in pilot facilities for shared self-consumption.” In the same way, the project seeks to develop new business models that will serve as a reference to new facilities for the future of the perimeter that the three nations share.

Blockchain in Energy Management

The energy sector, particularly in Spain, has been one of the most interested in exploring the possibilities of using blockchains in its processes. At the end of 2019, local media reported that the El Corte Inglés conglomerate would be in charge of certifying the origin of renewable energy through Blockchain Energy Tracking, in alliance with the group EDP (Energías de Portugal).

Also in December of last year, the Postal and Telegraph Society of Spain announced that it would use the ClimateTrade blockchain. It would allow them to compensate for the carbon footprint that they generate through their shipping and parcel services.

For its part, Siemens, in alliance with the Gnera group and Gas and Power, developed the e-ing3ni@ project. Through this platform, they would manage energy commercialization, connecting producers, individuals, and large plants, as well as traders, distributors, agents, and consumers.

By Alexander Salazar

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