The scenario that Messari proposes gets very close to that offered by other analysts. In the evolution of the price of BTC, the cryptocurrency would reach USD 100,000 next April.
Messari researcher Mira Christanto raises on Twitter that if the current bitcoin rally were similar to that of 2017, we would be at a point in time like in July 2017, that is, six months away from a new all-time high. Based on expected percentage growth, it also says that the likely price of bitcoin in December will be $ 292,000.
The current bullish cycle for bitcoin started at the lowest point that the cryptocurrency dared to reach in December 2018, in the vicinity of $ 3,400. That is the initial date proposed by the Messari researcher in her tweet. This tweet coincides with many other analysts’ opinions.
The analyst and trader Ryan Wilday maintains that same theory in an article in which he predicts the evolution of the price of BTC on the same bullish cycle.
In the scenario that Christanto sees, the price evolution of the 2015-2017 bitcoin bull cycle is superimposed with the current process, as shown in the graph that accompanies the researcher’s tweet.
Another view this scenario shows is about the starting point of 2017 with a rally in April 2015. It reached its climax in December. According to the period considered, bitcoin’s price multiplied by a factor close to 100 concerning the initial cost.
There is a use of two bull cycles in this hypothesis. The claim is that the current process has not concluded. For Messari, if the price of BTC remained attached to the evolution of the bitcoin boom between 2015 and 2017, the cost would reach USD 300,000. The circumstances surrounding both cycles are not the same, and there are no arguments to support that evolution with roots on previous historical data can happen again.
After the first two bitcoin halvings, bullish price runs began with other returns when reaching the highest point and with different starting dates after reducing the miners’ reward. The current cycle, which started about ten months after the third halving, moved away from some of the assumptions made based on what happened after the previous halvings.
A closer analysis on halvings shows that, while bitcoin’s rally began almost immediately after the first of them, which occurred on November 28, 2012, the cycle after the second took more than a year to begin. The return of that first cycle at the end of 2012 was 60 times, while in the bull cycle after the second halving, the price increased 30 times.
In light of what happened with the third halving, the upward cycle would have started the previous December, according to the thesis already discussed, while the fall in March 2020 only meant a delay in the progress of the said cycle.
By: Jenson Nuñez