The Bitcoin halving is one of the highlights of cryptocurrency. Historically, the price of Bitcoin has seen significant increases after each halving. However, there are speculations whether this time it will follow the same pattern.
Some experts, such as PlanB, suggest that, after this fourth Bitcoin halving, the historical trend is likely to continue, while others raise doubts. This uncertainty raises expectations among both experienced investors and new Bitcoin enthusiasts.
Fourth Bitcoin Halving Activated
To recall, the first halving occurred in 2012, when the block reward was reduced from 50 BTC to 25 BTC. Then, in 2016, the second halving occurred, decreasing the reward to 12.5 BTC per block. Subsequently, the third took place on May 11, 2020, when the reward was reduced to 6.25 BTC.
Additionally, these events have an impact on the total supply of Bitcoins that can be mined. As issuance is reduced, supply is expected to decrease, which can potentially have a positive effect on the value of Bitcoin. However, it is important to note that the value of Bitcoin is determined by a variety of factors, including market demand, widespread adoption, and technological developments.
According to analysts, this event marks the beginning of a bullish phase in the price of Bitcoin. This bull run usually peaks about 12 months after the halving.
Regarding this fact, Michael Anderson, co-founder of Framework Ventures, had the following to say:
“If previous cycles are indicative of the future, the impact of the next halving may not become evident until more than a year, or possibly even 18 months later. That said, this is the first cycle in which a high has been reached history before a halving, so it is entirely possible that market trends are changing as more and more institutional money enters the market.”
Bitcoin Mining Would Cause a Massive Sale after Halving, Report Claims
According to Markus Thielen, CEO of the firm 10x Research, there could be a large sale of Bitcoin by miners in the months after the halving. Specifically, Bitcoin miners could liquidate $5 billion in BTC.
Regarding this fact, he indicated that “The surplus from this sale could last four to six months, which explains why Bitcoin could move laterally over the next few months, as it has done after previous halvings.”
The CEO concluded that if all miners have a similar strategy for selling post-halving inventory, “it could result in a maximum of $104 million of BTC sales per day, reversing the imbalance between supply and demand that caused the BTC rally.” pre-halving.
Regardless of what happens, if Markus Thielen’s predictions are accurate, there could be a decline in the price of Bitcoin after the halving. This may disappoint investors, especially those inexperienced retailers expecting an immediate increase in price.
Bitcoin Halving Party Begins Despite Danger in the Middle East
Indeed, Israel launched an attack on Iran, sending tremors through global markets. In fact, Bitcoin at one point fell more than 6% to $59,670, but then stabilized and moved to $65,400, and is currently trading above $63,600.
In this regard, Stefan von Haenisch, head of operations at OSL SG Pte, said that “The continued violence between Israel and Iran could generate a general feeling of risk aversion in the cryptocurrency sector. But a significant move lower could be necessary to undo all the bullishness around the halving.
Now, despite the turmoil in the Middle East, the Bitcoin halving celebration continues without interruption and social metrics show a high level of activity. According to The Block metrics, mentions on social networks are at significant levels.
By Audy Castaneda
