BTC price action is on track for an all-time monthly close below the 200-week moving average.
Bitcoin (BTC) starts a new week above $20,000 but is headed for a new bearish record as a key support level remains out of reach.
After a quiet weekend punctuated by a brief rally to around $22,000, the BTC/USD pair is back near Friday’s closing price on CME futures markets.
With the June month-end closing fast approaching, Bitcoin is facing a few days of reckoning amid what could be its worst monthly performance since 2018.
Traders Expect July to Provide BTC Price “Catalysts”
While the weekend spared the average hodler from any more nasty surprises, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows, the fact remains that BTC/USD is far from where anyone wants it to be, even in a bear market. .
With the key 200-week moving average (WMA) out of reach, there is very little bullish sentiment in the market, as evidenced by the “extreme fear” of the Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index, which is still firmly in control.
Expectations are that the first week of July could provide the next big bout of market volatility in cryptocurrencies and risk assets.
“Not much has happened overnight when it comes to Bitcoin, but I expect a pretty slow week due to the lack of catalysts currently,” confirmed popular Crypto trader Tony.
How Normal is this Bear Market?
As some panic and sell their BTC, analysts are scrambling to show that there is nothing unusual about the extent of the Bitcoin bear market so far.
Among them is on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, which in its recent research paper, “A Bear of Historic Proportions,” called for calm for BTC holders even though its price fell below $20,000.
“Bear market lows have historically been set with BTC falling -75% to -84% from its all-time high, and taking a duration of 260 days in 2019-20, to 410 days in 2015,” he wrote.
BTC Risks Facing Its First Monthly Close Below the 200WMA
With three days to go until June, things look worrying or “interesting” for Bitcoin, depending on one’s perspective.
With the bear market in full swing, the BTC/USD pair remains below a key trend line that has supported it during previous macro lows. The 200-week moving average (WMA), which has never decreased in value, is currently at $22,430.
As Cointelegraph reported, in previous bear markets, Bitcoin has held the 200 WMA as support while moving below it to make price bottoms.
However, this time the level is turning into resistance, as attempts by the bulls to follow historical norms repeatedly fail. As such, the end of the month could be “interesting,” says Stock-to-Flow pricing model creator PlanB, as it would mark the first-ever monthly close below the 200WMA.
Bitcoin Dominance Plummets
Altcoins were suffering even more than Bitcoin recently due to the turmoil of several major projects, such as Terra and Celsius.
Now, however, the tables are turning: Bitcoin’s dominance has reversed after rising this year, leading to suggestions that altcoins could be the most attractive investment in the short term.
“Bitcoin dominance is going down hard. The advantage is currently held by altcoins,” the popular Twitter account BTCfuel summarized.
After hitting an 11-month high of 48.36% on June 11, Bitcoin’s share of the overall cryptocurrency market capitalization has dropped to 43.46% at the time of writing, a remarkable turnaround in less than three weeks.
Bitcoin is Popular Again, but for the Wrong Reasons
Data from Google Trends confirms that more people have searched for “Bitcoin” on Google this month than at any other time since May 2021.
However, both then and now, BTC price action was heading for long-term lows, rather than highs, indicating that it is bearish events that trigger popular interest.
For this reason, the activity of phrases such as “Bitcoin is dead” has increased, which social media users have pointed to as a possible sign that the market is in a “capitulation” phase.
By Audy Castaneda
