Pentoshi, the pseudonym of a crypto analyst who works with Merit Circle, recalls his bullish stance (“bullish tweeting”) on the Bitcoin ETF (BTC) when Bitcoin was priced between $25,000 and $28,000. This historical reference sets the stage for his current predictions regarding Ethereum.
In a post on the social media platform X (formerly known as Twitter) on December 23, 2023, Pentoshi, a prominent crypto analyst working with Merit Circle, shared his perspective on the possible launch of the exchange-traded fund (ETF) of Ethereum (ETH) spot in the US and its likely impact on the market.
Expectations for Ethereum Spot ETFs in the US in 2024
The crypto analyst expresses a sense of optimism regarding Ethereum spot ETFs planned for 2024. The introduction of an ETF for Ethereum would allow investors to trade stocks representing Ethereum on traditional stock markets, potentially broadening its appeal and base of investment.
Game Theory and Market Behavior
Pentoshi applies game theory to predict market behavior as US Ethereum spot ETF launch nears. The expert expects investors to hold onto their Ethereum holdings in anticipation of a price increase prior to the launch of the spot ETF. This behavior is likely to reduce the supply of Ethereum in the market.
Pentoshi believes there could be increased demand for Ethereum as investors aim to buy ahead of the spot ETF’s launch, expecting bullish market conditions thereafter. “No matter what you believe, it’s all game theory. as the date approaches people will be less willing to sell, and others will feel the need to buy,” he posted on X.
Ethereum Price Targets
Pentoshi sets possible price targets for Ethereum, indicating “$2.7xx” and “$3.4k” levels. These targets suggest specific price ranges they believe Ethereum could reach around the launch of the ETF. $ETH is trading at around $2,283.50, down 0.35% in the last 24-hour period but up 90.24% year-to-date.
According to a Cointelegraph report published on December 19, 2023, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has postponed its verdict on several Ethereum ETFs until May 2024, as indicated in recent regulatory filings on the 18th. from December. These filings reveal that the SEC has deferred its decision on the Hashdex Nasdaq Ethereum ETF and the Grayscale Ethereum Futures ETF. The Hashdex Ether ETF is designed to include both direct holdings of Ether and futures contracts.
On the other hand, Grayscale’s Ethereum Futures ETF is perceived as a strategic move, often called a “Trojan horse,” aimed at pushing the SEC to approve the conversion of Grayscale’s Ethereum Trust into an Ethereum spot ETF. In these documents, the SEC announced the initiation of proceedings to gather additional public comments to determine the feasibility and appropriateness of listing these ETFs.
ETH ETF Postponed to May
The SEC has delayed its decision on VanEck’s Ethereum spot ETF and the Ethereum spot ETF proposed by Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest in collaboration with 21Shares.
The agency has delayed its decision on the Hashdex Nasdaq Ethereum ETF and the Grayscale Ethereum Futures ETF. Hashdex’s Ether ETF aims to hold both spot Ether and futures contracts, while Grayscale’s Ethereum Futures ETF is considered a “Trojan horse” that would corner the SEC into allowing Grayscale to convert its Ethereum Trust into a spot Ethereum ETF.
In the filing, the agency said it was instituting procedures that involve gathering more public information around whether ETFs should be listed.
By Leonardo Perez
