On Sunday, Bitcoin (BTC) fell 0.15% to end another range-bound session at $16,435. However, the Fear & Greed Index rose from 26/100 to 28/100, consolidating Sunday’s move into the fear zone.
On Sunday, Bitcoin (BTC) fell 0.15%. Following a 0.36% loss on Saturday, BTC ended the day at $16,435. Notably, BTC avoided sub-$16,000 for the fifth day in a row, as it extended the losing streak to four sessions.
A bullish start to the day saw BTC rally to an early high of $16,603. Failing to reach the first major resistance level (R1) at $16,642, BTC fell to a late low of $16,410. However, moving away from the first major support level (S1) at $16,334, BTC found late support to end the day at $16,435.
With the US Thanksgiving holiday ending, there was no cryptocurrency news to provide guidance. Trading volumes remained low, with investors likely to take a wait-and-see approach on FTX and further contagion.
However, investor sentiment towards FTX contagion has improved in recent sessions, preventing a return below $16,000. Bets on a Fed pivot in December have also been supportive, while regulatory risk will continue to be a drag on cryptocurrencies.
Currently, there are no US economic indicators to influence, leaving the NASDAQ Composite Index in the hands of the Fed. FOMC member Williams will speak today. Support for a 50 basis point rate increase would provide support for NASDAQ and BTC.
However, the NASDAQ mini started the week in negative territory (-83 points), influenced by concerns about the new wave of COVID-19 cases in China.
Fear & Greed Index Rises Despite Another BTC Loss
Today, the BTC Fear & Greed Index increased from 26/100 to 28/100. Significantly, the index consolidated its return to the fear zone for the first time since the FTX collapse. The advantage came despite BTC moving within a range of $193 on Sunday.
BTC avoidance below $16,000 for the fifth session in a row was likely a contributing factor. The latest move in the Index aligns with market rumors of bottoming out, supported by the declining risk of contagion from FTX.
Avoiding sub-20/100 remains the key in the short term. Bulls will need to target FTX’s pre-crash high of 40/100 (Nov 6) to support a BTC run to $20,000.
Technical Indicators
BTC needs to move through the $16,483 pivot to target the first major resistance level (R1) at $16,555 and the Sunday high of $16,603. A return to $16,600 would signal a bullish session. However, BTC would need the NASDAQ and FTX-linked friendly news updates to support a trading session.
If BTC falls through the second major support level (S2) at $16,290, the third major support level (S3) at $16,097 should cap the downside.
However, negative FTX-related news or a sell-off driven by risk aversion would put less than $16,000 at stake.
By Audy Castaneda
