In the short term, investors should continue to consider the BTC spot ETF market flow data. However, comments on the Fed will also need consideration on Friday. Fed Chair Powell and FOMC members Michael Barr, Michelle Bowman and Philip Jefferson are on the economic calendar to speak on Friday.
On March 21, there was a net outflow of $94 million from the ten newly launched spot Bitcoin ETFs. Although the figure is lower than the previous three days, it represents another day in which funds have been withdrawn from institutional investment products.
Fund outflows on March 18, 19 and 20 amounted to $154 million, $326 million and $261 million, respectively, according to Farside Investors. Total net outflow for this week is currently $836 million, and Friday’s numbers have not yet been included. This suggests that the last two months of Bitcoin ETF hype have temporarily stopped as investors take profits.
Exiting ETF Funds
Grayscale, which has been losing BTC all month, saw a fresh outflow of $359 million on March 21. “GBTC has now lost 42.3% of its shares since becoming an ETF,” commented industry analyst James Seyffart.
GBTC currently holds 355,759 BTC, having lost 264,214 BTC since the conversion. Grayscale’s total outflow so far this week amounts to a whopping $1.83 billion.
ETF analyst Eric Balchunas commented the following:
“What a blow. I thought the worst was over. I suppose not. “Who’s leaving now that wasn’t motivated to do so in the last two months?”
Balchunas noted that the increase in departures from Grayscales was likely “related to bankruptcies due to size and consistency.”
He added that the Gemini/Genesis exits were likely purchasing BTC with cash; Therefore, the market was resisting.
In February, a bankruptcy judge allowed Genesis to liquidate approximately $1.3 billion in GBTC shares as part of its efforts to repay investors.
Balchunas said the worst is probably close to being over before adding: “Once it’s over, only retail will be left, and flows should look more like the February trickle.”
On March 21, research analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence James Seyffart posted the following on X:
“$358.8 million out of $GBTC, outflows ain’t stopping. GBTC has now lost 42.3% of it’s shares since converting to an ETF.”
BlackRock Inflows Slow Down
BlackRock, which recently announced a new tokenized RWA fund, prevented Thursday’s outflow from being in the triple figures like the previous three days. IBIT had an inflow of $233.4 million on the day.
The fund’s total inflows for the week were $809 million. BlackRock had two very slow days on Tuesday and Wednesday as BTC prices plummeted.
The other seven funds had minimal inflows for March 21, with the Invesco Galaxy Bitcoin ETF (BTCO) recording an outflow of $10 million.
Crypto markets had retreated 1.5% on the day, with total capitalization falling to $2.63 trillion recently.
Bitcoin Analysis
BTC held above the 50- and 200-day EMAs, sending bullish price signals. A BTC return to the $69,000 resistance level would give the bulls a run towards the $73,808 ATH. A break above the ATH could support a move towards the $75,000 level.
On Friday, BTC spot ETF flow data for March 21 and 22 needs investors’ attention. Conversely, a fall through the $64,000 support level could indicate a BTC decline towards the $60,365 support level.
The 14-day RSI reading of 52.64 indicates a move for BTC to ATH $73.808 before entering overbought territory.
By Audy Castaneda
