Bitcoin price is trying to break above the $26,200 resistance. BTC needs to clear $26,200 and $26,500 to initiate a decent recovery wave.
Bitcoin is still struggling to break above the $26,500 resistance zone. The price is trading above $26,000 and the 100-hour simple moving average. There was a break above a short-term bearish trend line with resistance near $26,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data from Kraken) The pair could attempt a further rise if it breaks above $26,200 and $26,500.
Bitcoin Price Faces Obstacles
Bitcoin price initiated a short-term bullish move from the $25,720 area. BTC was able to overcome the $26,000 resistance zone, but it still faces many obstacles.
During the recent rise, it broke the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the downward move from the high of $26,779 to the low of $25,778. In addition, there was a break above a short-term downtrend line with resistance near $26,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair.
Bitcoin now trades above $26,000 and the 100-hour simple moving average. On the upside, immediate resistance is near the $26,175 and $26,200 levels.
A clear move above the $26,200 level could send price towards the key resistance at $26,500. Intermediate resistance is near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the downward move from the $26,779 high to the $25,778 low at $26,400. This is shown in a graphic of the pair BTCUSD developed by TradingView.com
To initiate a decent rise, the price should be above $26,500. In the indicated case, the price could test the $27,000 level. Any further gains could set the pace for a further rise towards $28,200.
Further Drop in BTC?
If Bitcoin fails to break above the $26,200 resistance, it may initiate another fall. Immediate downside support is near the $25,900 level.
The next important support is near the $25,800 level. A break to the downside below the $25,800 level could send the price further down. In the indicated case, the price could drop as low as $25,400.
Bitcoin volatility currently remains subdued as investors are awaiting the outcome of the SEC’s decision on the Bitcoin spot ETF due in early September. Likely, after a week there could be more clarity on where the BTC price is headed.
Bitcoin Transaction Volume at 3-year Low
Chain data shows that Bitcoin transaction volume has fallen to 3-year lows. According to Santiment’s data, this includes the amount of peer-to-peer payments, miner fees, exchange fees and withdrawals. This can be observed in a graphic published by Santiment.
Analysts have also been throwing up warning signs for investing in Bitcoin at this time. Considering previous cycles, August and September have been periods of correction for Bitcoin and the crypto market in typical.
Bloomberg senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone explains that Bitcoin has already experienced a strong rally this year. Therefore, its price cannot be expected to continue to rise going forward. Let’s wait for what the SEC has to say on the ground about the Bitcoin ETF applications submitted to them.
By Leonardo Pérez
