Bitcoin fell to a one-week low of $61,928 in early trading before recovering slightly to $62,387, down about 2%.
Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market faced a slowdown on Monday, driven by anticipation of a major Federal Reserve meeting later this week.
As investors speculated about the implications of the meeting, the possibility of a longer period of higher interest rates created uncertainty, prompting a sell-off.
Upcoming Federal Reserve Interest Rate Announcements
The Federal Reserve is scheduled to announce its interest rate decision on May 1, with a 95.6% probability of keeping rates unchanged. However, speculation surrounding the outcome of the meeting has fueled debate among market participants as higher interest rates are often seen as a headwind for risky assets, including cryptocurrencies.
The United States will also announce the unemployment rate for April on May 3, providing more information about the health of the economy and potentially influencing future decisions by the Federal Reserve.
Bitcoin’s Recent Performance
Bitcoin’s gains in 2024 have slowed from over 70% in mid-March to over 47%, with the cryptocurrency hitting a record high of nearly $74,000. The market is now assessing whether Bitcoin can maintain its momentum, especially in light of the upcoming Federal Reserve announcement.
Various other factors such as market sentiment, geopolitical events, and institutional interest also influence Bitcoin’s performance.
Dramatic Yen Volatility Welcomes FOMC Week
Significant macroeconomic events continue this week with the upcoming interest rate decision by the US Federal Reserve.
While markets are not expecting any surprises from the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, recent macroeconomic data has worried risk asset bulls. They fear that lower rates will arrive much later than anticipated at the beginning of the year, as shown in estimates from CME Group’s FedWatch tool.
It’s not just the FOMC; Headlining the week’s macro events is Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s accompanying commentary on May 1, followed by jobless claims and unemployment data on May 2 and 3, respectively.
For Bitcoin and risk assets, however, not everything can be so bad, unless opinions favor a significant worsening of economic circumstances.
Potential Implications for the Crypto Market
A tough stance on interest rates from the Federal Reserve could lead to further declines in the cryptocurrency market, as higher rates may deter investment in riskier assets. On the contrary, a dovish tone could bring relief to some, which could lead to a rally in Bitcoin and altcoins.
Popular crypto analyst Rekt Capital noted on X that Bitcoin has fallen from the $65,500 resistance, indicating that it is now trading in a “no man’s land,” between resistance and a liquidity pool below, which has caused bounces in the past.
Another key observation comes from Bitcoin Power Law model creator Giovanni Santostasi, who predicted a peak for Bitcoin in November 2025 at $218,875, suggesting the potential for a significant rally if conditions align.
Upcoming Opportunities for Bitcoin
Despite the recent recession, Bitcoin could find support near the $62,400 level. Failure to hold this support could lead to further declines, possibly to $61,200 or lower.
On the other hand, a successful rebound from this level could signal a recovery, with the potential to test resistance near $64,000 and eventually reach higher levels around $65,000 or even $66,200.
Crypto influencer Ash Crypto noted that while Bitcoin is consolidating, Ethereum is gaining momentum, indicating that capital may flow from Bitcoin to Ethereum. This change could impact Bitcoin’s performance in the short term, particularly if Ethereum spot ETFs are approved, which could trigger a surge in ETH prices.
By Leonardo Perez
