Over the past month, Bitcoin posted gains of over 30% due to notable developments such as Grayscale’s win and the BlackRock ETF listing on the DTCC site.
As ‘Uptober’ concludes its chapter, November will follow the trend, continuing Bitcoin’s impressive upward trajectory. Analysts are now looking forward to the possible launch of ETFs as the year draws to a close, with growing confidence that Bitcoin will maintain its bullish rally, possibly pushing its price above $35,000 next week.
Record $16 Billion Bitcoin Open Interest Sets Price
Traders are actively opening positions on the price of Bitcoin, driven by its increased volatility. As a result, the open interest metric hit this year’s record high of $16.35 billion. Most of these traders entered the market during Bitcoin’s strong rally from October 16 to 24.
However, BTC price appears to be slowing now, possibly influenced by declining enthusiasm for ETFs. Bitcoin’s on-chain metrics remain strong in November.
In the past, the fourth quarter has typically shown a bullish rally in the market. November has often maintained a neutral position, maintaining the momentum of October, except for the FTX crash incident that occurred last year. On average, another 10% increase in November can be expected, pushing the Bitcoin price towards $37,500.
Data from IntoTheBlock shows that Bitcoin has seen a continuous negative net flow over the past week. Interestingly, this trend suggests a positive outlook for the market, as a negative net flow points to a decrease in reserves on the exchanges due to an increase in capital outflows. This indicates continued accumulation by investors, predicting a possible price rally, which could mean bullish sentiment for Bitcoin in November. Currently, the net flow is recorded at -820 BTC, which strengthens investor interest.
What’s Next for the BTC Price?
After facing a rejection recently, Bitcoin price has recovered from $33,400, suggesting high buying demand near low prices. However, sellers continue to apply pressure near the high of $34,500, suggesting an intense price battle.
There is bullish hope as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to rise above the midline, suggesting that the market is favoring buyers. A break above $35,300 will trigger more buying and massive short liquidation. The BTC price could rise exponentially and head towards its target of $36,600.
Any further increase will shoot the price towards $40,000. Breaking above the $35,300 level could be problematic, though, as sellers will try to reverse the trend. If the sellers manage to change the sentiment near the resistance, BTC price will likely trap the buyers, causing a sharp drop towards $32,400. If buyers fail to defend this support level, there could be a drop towards $29,000.
Who Will Dictate the BTC Price: Short-Term Holders or Whales?
Short-term holders and whales were key players in the Bitcoin market. Short-term holders were currently selling at the highest profit margin since April, according to data from Crypto Quant analyst Julio Moreno.
On the other hand, whales are spending at the highest level since June. This dynamic suggested that both short-term holders and whales are taking important actions, possibly affecting BTC price levels. The direction in which they continue to move could shape Bitcoin’s near future.
The 25 Delta Skew, a metric that measures options market sentiment, has shown a slight decline in recent days. This suggests that traders may be less inclined to place bullish bets on Bitcoin. A reduced Delta Skew of 25 could lead to more stable or even bearish price trends for Bitcoin.
By Audy Castaneda
