Various countdown tools, such as Bitcoin Halving Clock and Bitcoin Halving Countdown, indicate that the event is just around the corner, with 99 to 101 days and approximately 15,000 blocks remaining.
Bitcoin has shown a tendency to see consistent price increases in the months following the halving. The countdown to the Bitcoin (BTC) Halving in 2024 has begun, with just 100 days left until the event takes place.
While the cryptocurrency market eagerly awaits the approval of a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF), Bitcoin miners will experience a 50% reduction in block rewards, marking the next halving of the block subsidy.
The Bitcoin halving is scheduled for the second quarter of 2024, tentatively around April 19.
Impact of Bitcoin Halving on BTC Price
Historical data reveals a correlation between Bitcoin halving events and subsequent price increases. After the three previous halving events, BTC saw substantial price increases, leading to new all-time highs.
Timo Oinonen, a contributor to on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, said in an email on (purple) that when examining previous halving events, Bitcoin has shown a tendency to experience consistent price increases in the months following the halving. The current cycle suggests a possible bull run in 2025, coinciding with possible institutional investments across the Bitcoin ETF space.
Standard Chartered Bank’s prediction of a Bitcoin price target of $120,000 by the end of 2024 may not be too far-fetched given these historical patterns. However, the impending Bitcoin halving raises concerns about the profitability of miners, as they will earn only 3.125 BTC per block, down from the current 6.25 BTC.
Data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode reveals a decline in Bitcoin held in miners’ wallets, currently totaling 1.819 million BTC compared to 1.827 million BTC at the beginning of December.
In particular, technology company MicroStrategy Inc (NASDAQ: MSTR), known for having the largest corporate BTC treasury, tends to increase its Bitcoin purchases before halving events. This strategic move reflects a bullish outlook on the future of Bitcoin, aligning with historical patterns seen after previous halving events.
Two Key Trends Driving Miners Ahead of 2024 Milestone
This upcoming event marks the fourth halving. Before the previous three halving times, especially preceding the events of 2016 and 2020, certain skeptics of bitcoin predicted a ‘mining death spiral’ accompanied by substantial capitulation by miners.
To this point, two key developments have improved profits for bitcoin miners: the anticipation of the approval of a spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the US and the growing trend of ordinal enrollment. Mining revenues saw a substantial increase throughout 2023 and this trend has persisted into the new year.
Spot Bitcoin ETF Approval
Attention is also on the possible approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Despite years of reluctance, the SEC’s approach may be changing, although as of today there has been no firm confirmation regarding the trading approval of ETFs. While the United States has been cautious about spot Bitcoin ETFs, these investment products already exist in Europe and other regions.
Traders are cautiously optimistic about the potential impact of a Bitcoin ETF on price action. Some anticipate a “selling the news” phenomenon, with initial losses followed by a gradual recovery.
However, industry experts, including Nate Geraci and Michael van de Poppe, see the approval as a turning point. Van de Poppe predicts a substantial influx of liquidity, comparing it to the dot-com bubble or the gold bull cycle from 2004 to 2011.
By Leonardo Perez
