Bitcoin is headed for a scenario similar to the one experienced during the 2016 halving. A growth of BTC in July 2022 seems unlikely.
Below is a Bitcoin forecast for July 2022. Thus, the prospects for the behavior of the cryptocurrency are analyzed, taking into account the potential for movement inherent in the 2020 halving.
Such history shows that July is usually not the best month for Bitcoin (BTC). Over the past 11 years, BTC has shown negative movement dynamics over the indicated time period on 4 occasions.
At the same time, the drop in Bitcoin in June, as a rule, is not critical. The statistics of the movement of BTC in the indicated month in percentage terms are as follows: Fall – 36% and Growth – 64%.
The Bitcoin forecast for July 2022 will not be complete without an analysis of the possibilities of movement of BTC through the prism of the impact of halvings on the behavior of the cryptocurrency. Recall that the last halving was registered in May 2020.
Bitcoin halvings create a shortage of BTC in the market, which, against the background of the growing demand for cryptocurrencies, leads to an increase in its rate. At the same time, the transition of the currency to the phase of positive movement, as a rule, is proceeded by a crypto winter.
To understand what July 2022 might look like for Bitcoin, it needs to be determined what phase BTC is in relative to the halving.
Bitcoin Forecast for July Based on Halving
The last BTC halving was recorded on May 11, 2020. The period from July 1 to July 31, 2022, is the period from 781 to 812 days after the Bitcoin mining rate declined. The beginning of the segment falls on day 233 after BTC reached the all-time high of $68,789 on November 10, 2021.
The 2020 halving was preceded by two others: on November 28, 2012, and July 9, 2016. To find out how Bitcoin may behave in July 2022, you need to study the movement of the currency in the period from 781 to 812 days later of the 2012 and 2016 halvings. Here’s what the basic calculations look like:
Halving of 2012. The period from 781 to 812 days fell in the period from January 18, 2015, to February 18, 2015.
The start of the segment fell on day 409 after Bitcoin reached a local high near $1,100 in late November 2013. After the gap ended, BTC continued to move sideways for several months.
Halving of 2016. The period from 781 to 812 days fell in the period from August 29, 2018, to September 29, 2018.
Bitcoin began a surge of growth, which turned into a bottom. The start of the segment fell on the 258th day after Bitcoin’s December 2017 local high update near the $20,000 level.
Conclusion
It can be assumed that July 2022 is unlikely to be a month for a change in the global trend of Bitcoin. Bitcoin’s projection for July does not exclude a decline to new local lows.
Previously, many analysts and members of the crypto community expressed the possibility of BTC going down to $10,000.
An analysis of Bitcoin’s movements in the period 781 to 812 days after the 2012 and 2016 halvings suggests that by July 2022, the cryptocurrency may be in a sideways move.
By Audy Castaneda
