On-chain analytics legend Willy Woo claims BTC has yet to hit a macro bottom.
The prolonged bear market is testing even the most passionate holders. Many are supported by regular doses that come from on-chain analysis. However, it appears that Bitcoin has yet to bottom out.
That’s according to Willy Woo, one of the most respected on-chain analysts in the crypto space. To substantiate his claim, he posted a series of tweets today. Here we find 3 indicators according to which Bitcoin has not yet bottomed.
Has one of Bitcoin’s biggest supporters suddenly turned bearish? Or are we all looking at on-chain analytics too optimistically, and Willy Woo is just trying to regain lost footing?
Bitcoin Has Already Bottomed, Right?
In a regular on-chain analysis provided by BeInCrypto, they have repeatedly pointed to indicators that Bitcoin has already reached, or is very close to reaching, the macro bottom of the current bear market. In last week’s review, we outlined 4 on-chain indicators that, based on historical data, seem to confirm a bottom has been reached.
Among these indicators, we find Hash Ribbons, Dormancy Flow, Puell Multiple or Realized Losses. Additionally, the MVRV Z-score has recently been at record lows. Even a relatively new indicator called the Pi Cycle Bottom supports the narrative that the BTC macro bottom has already been implemented.
Willy Woo: Have We Hit Rock Bottom?
Despite this data, Willy Woo published a series of tweets today. Each of them began with the question “Have we hit rock bottom?” And it seems that the content of each of them answers no!
The first indicator Willy Woo points out is Cost Basis. There he compares the cost basis of buying BTC for short-term and long-term holders. It turns out that the historical bear market lows of 2015 and 2019 occurred only when short holders achieved a lower cost basis than long holders.
Woo further states that this is exactly what happened in 2019. However, in 2015 the final capitulation of BTC took place in this area (red).
Currently, on the Cost Basis chart, the red line for short-term holders has not yet crossed the blue line, which represents long-term holders. Once this happens, Bitcoin could make a final capitulation and reach a macro bottom below the current level of $17,622.
Bear Market Accumulation
The second indicator used by Willy Woo is Bear Market Accumulation. The analyst quantitatively defines accumulation as “currencies moving away from sellers to urgent buyers”.
Willy Woo compares the size and duration of accumulation periods, based on a Bitcoin chart he shared on Twitter. It turns out that the current accumulation has reached just over half the level of all previous accumulation periods.
Furthermore, the macro lows on the Bitcoin chart appeared only after the accumulation peak was reached.
Cost Basis Density Map
The last indicator to suggest that the bottom has not yet been reached is the Cost Basis Density Map. This chart is accompanied by a blue line that represents the percentage of coins experiencing a loss. In other words, your purchase costs were higher than the current price of BTC.
Willy Woo says that currently “the market has not felt the same pain as previous funds.” He points out that today only 52% of coins record losses. By contrast, during the macro lows of previous bear markets, it was 61%, 64%, and 57%.”
In a comment on his own tweet, he states: “History does not need to repeat itself, especially in the modern age with available futures coverage that is not picked up on-chain.”
He further adds that, for 60% of coins to currently record losses, the price of Bitcoin would be $9,100.
By Audy Castaneda
