Institutional demand remains strong, and traditional investors are very interested in adding long exposure to BTC.
As the long-awaited Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund (ETF) verdict approaches, excitement and anticipation continues to grow in the cryptocurrency market. According to a report by K33 Research, the upcoming decision, expected between January 8 and 10, has been a major factor behind Bitcoin’s positive momentum since October.
Is Bitcoin Ready for a Bullish December?
Bitcoin has shown a notable tendency to rise in the run-up to major events, creating a sense of excitement and driving prices higher. This phenomenon has been observed throughout several important milestones in the history of cryptocurrency.
According to the report, examples include Bitcoin’s peak coinciding with the launch of Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) BTC futures in 2017, its peak coinciding with Coinbase’s public listing in April 2021, and its peak the day El Salvador declared Bitcoin legal tender in September 2021. Similarly, Bitcoin peaked on the VanEck Spot ETF deadline in November 2021. These cases highlight the potential for Bitcoin experience significant price movements as the ETF verdict approaches.
The report emphasizes substantial demand from institutional investors seeking exposure to Bitcoin. BTC exchange-traded products (ETPs) saw inflows of nearly 40,000 BTC in November, while CME open interest reached and maintained all-time highs. Futures premiums have also increased to 20%, indicating strong interest from institutional players. Instead, retail participation has shown signs of stagnation. Offshore flows have remained shallow and Bitcoin-denominated open interest in BTC perpetual contracts is currently at yearly lows. These factors suggest that institutional flows remain the driving force behind the strong strength of the Bitcoin market.
Based on the historical pattern of event-driven price movements and sustained institutional demand, the report maintains a positive outlook for Bitcoin in December. As the ETF verdict approaches, K33 Research’s report suggests the narrowing time window is expected to fuel enthusiasm and drive prices higher.
However, it is worth noting that once the event occurs, prices may see a temporary increase before potentially stabilizing, according to the report.
BTC Bull Run Indicator
Renowned crypto analyst Ali Martínez has identified a significant development in the Bitcoin market that suggests a bullish outlook for the cryptocurrency. According to Martínez, the realized price of Bitcoin has exceeded the realized price of the long-term holder, indicating an increase in market momentum and attracting new investors willing to buy Bitcoin at higher prices. Martínez’s analysis highlights that similar events in the past have preceded substantial price increases, further fueling optimism about Bitcoin’s future performance.
The realized price of Bitcoin refers to the average price at which all previously realized coins were purchased. Consider the price at which each unit of Bitcoin on the blockchain last moved. Long-term holder realized pricing focuses specifically on coins held by long-term investors, providing information on their average acquisition price. When the realized price exceeds the realized price of the long-term holder, it suggests that new investors are entering the market and are willing to buy Bitcoin at higher valuations.
Bitcoin has seen significant gains following this bullish signal on three separate occasions in the past. Specifically, the cryptocurrency increased by 12,736%, 4,474%, and 819%, respectively, following similar events.
In addition to Martinez’s bullish outlook for BTC, the market’s largest cryptocurrency has demonstrated relatively stable price action above $44,000 in the past hour. This stability increases the potential for a continued rise and consolidation above key levels, positioning Bitcoin for further gains and increases in the future.
By Audy Castaneda
