BTC has dropped below its realized price for 100 days, but there is no confirmation that it has bottomed out. It recently formed a bearish candlestick with a long upper wick, triggering a break below the USD 19,000 support area.
The pioneering cryptocurrency is trading below its realized price indicator, currently at USD 21,400. A significant rebound from that level might indicate it has reached the bottom of the market.
The Realized Price on-chain indicator measures the value of BTC when it last moved rather than currently. At the same time, it devalues lost coins and those not moving in a long time.
Analyst and trader Dylan LeClair shared on Twitter a chart of the price and realized price, showing the former has dropped below the latter. In other words, many Bitcoin buyers suffer losses, a sign associated with bearish markets.
The Previous History of the Price of Bitcoin
Since 2011, the real value of Bitcoin has dropped below the realized price five times. According to the cited chart, that happened in August 2011, January 2015, July 2018, March 2020, and July 2022.
Despite their link to Bitcoin market bottoms, those declining movements occurred in various periods. The price fell for 110 days in 2011, 240 days in 2015, 115 days in 2018, 8 days in 2020, and 100 days in 2022.
There is no consensus on how many days the price of BTC remains below its real value. However, Bitcoin seems to bottom out once it recovers that level.
Except for 2011, it took less than 100 days to bottom out following the first drop. That happened even without its confirmation until BTC rebounded to its realized price.
The Current Reading of the Price of Bitcoin
The price of Bitcoin has remained below the realized price for 100 days. In that period, it attempted to recover that level and even traded slightly above it but has kept dropping below it.
Although previous readings of the price of Bitcoin indicate no confirmation, it may have reached the bottom.
The Latest Movement in the Price of Bitcoin
According to its price movement, BTC recently formed a bearish candlestick with a long upper wick. The candle triggered a break below the USD 19,000 support area and rejected all gains from the previous bullish hammer.
The daily relative strength index (RSI) remains bullish, as its upward divergence trend line is intact. Although there is no horizontal support below the price, the USD 19,000 area may provide resistance.
Regarding the short-term move, BTC may trade inside a falling wedge and complete a final diagonal. The bullish divergence on the RSI and extremely-changing movement support that.
If that happened, the price of Bitcoin would rebound to USD 20,000 before attempting to drop to a new yearly low. That move would fit in with the long-term count and complete the correction underway since the all-time high price.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin is trading at around USD 19,033 and has accumulated a 1.2% loss over the last 24 hours. While its daily trading volume is above USD 44.66 billion, its market capitalization is about USD 364.63 billion, according to CoinGecko.
By Alexander Salazar
