The Bitcoin price has not been able to break above the $28,000 mark in the past few days. The current price development indicates that Bitcoin is still in the bear market.
The Bitcoin price fell sharply last year, due to a brutal bear market. After the FTX crisis, the price of BTC was only $15,000. In 2023, the price was able to recover significantly. From $15,500 at the beginning of the year, it rose to over $31,000 in March.
In recent weeks the rise has slowed significantly and there has been further consolidation. The Bitcoin price first fell below $30,000 and then even went back to $26,000. However, most of the time in the second quarter there is lateral movement.
How Much Can Bitcoin Price Rise in the Next Bull Market?
The Bitcoin price repeatedly sees particularly strong increases in a bull market. Generally, the bull market is supposed to start after the Bitcoin halving, as that is when a supply shock occurs.
In recent bull markets, an interesting phenomenon has occurred. The percentage increase in the price of Bitcoin, between the bear market and the bull market, continued to decrease with each cycle, as more bitcoins come into circulation, the fluctuations are less frequent.
Below are three possible scenarios that illustrate how much the price of Bitcoin could rise.
Scenario 1: 5x Increase
It is assumed that the price of Bitcoin will rise much less than in previous bull markets. The bottom of the bear market is $15,000, right after the FTX bankruptcy. Since this was an extraordinarily negative event, a “normal” low of $20,000 can be expected. A 5x rise would take Bitcoin to $100,000 in the bull market.
The probability of such a low all-time high in the next bull market is very low. Bitcoin adaptation continues to grow strongly, and the potential price in the next bull market is huge, thanks to innovations like the Taro protocol, ordinals, and especially the growing Lightning network.
The probability of this scenario is 5%.
Scenario 2: 10x Increase
A 10x rise would still be much less than the last bull market. Back then, Bitcoin rose from a low of around $3,500 to $68,000 in the bull market, a nearly 20-fold increase. A 10x rise from an assumed low of $20,000 would take Bitcoin to $200,000.
This scenario is much more likely. Most analysts consider a Bitcoin price between $150,000 and $250,000 to be realistic in the coming bull market.
The probability of this scenario is 70%.
Scenario 3: 25x Increase
The latter scenario causes the price of Bitcoin to grow faster in the next bull market than in the previous one. This would counter the tendency for rallies to lose steam in subsequent bull markets. One could already see a Bitcoin approaching the $500,000 mark in the upcoming bull market.
In this sense, there is some probability, since the last bull market was severely slowed by the ban on mining in China. Prior to this event (and other FUDs like Elon Musk’s criticism of alleged environmental pollution), the bitcoin price was on its way to $100,000, or eventually $150,000.
In addition, monetary policy could become looser in the coming years, and the FIAT system is heavily affected by banking crises and inflation. This could make the price of Bitcoin grow even faster.
The probability of this scenario is 25%.
By Audy Castaneda
