The SOPR failed to overtake one, suggesting another breakout attempt before confirming whether a low would occur. The RHODL ratio above 350 indicates that Bitcoin is in an oversold area, which might precede a rise.
The price of Bitcoin (BTC) has not been able to recover the USD 25,000 level, maintaining momentum around USD 24,000.
The daily chart shows that Bitcoin has risen by 6% while losing 1% over the last week, which suggests a consolidation period.
Bitcoin is trading at around USD 23,884 and has accumulated a 3% loss over the last week. While its daily trading volume is above USD 26.88 billion, its market capitalization is about USD 456.77 billion, according to CoinGecko.
The price dropped by 1.2% to USD 23,884 over the last 24 hours, proving that Bitcoin always makes unexpected moves.
However, the Spent Output Profit Rate (SOPR) and the Realized HODL (RHODL) signal a setback in the trend.
The SOPR Analysis of the Price of Bitcoin
The SOPR is an on-chain indicator that suggests whether the market is making a profit or a loss. The readings above 1 indicate that it is gaining, while those below 1 show it is losing.
In January 2018, the SOPR dropped below one, indicating the end of a bullish trend. Then it bottomed out in December of that year, broke again in May 2021, and reached 0.928 the following month.
On August 5th, it failed to overtake one, suggesting that the indicator is ready to make another breakout attempt. The confirmation of the low will occur if the SOPR exceeds one.
The RHODL Report on the Price of Bitcoin
The ratio of one week to 1-2 years of HODL wavebands form the RHODL metric. A mark above 50,000 suggests that short-term holders hold a significant portion of the BTC supply.
The RHODL ratio is above 350, positioned at 360, which indicates that Bitcoin is in an oversold area. On August 11th, the ratio dropped below 350 before it could rise.
There is a market bottom whenever there is an upward or downward sign near 350. The relationship will rebound if the marks hold, thus confirming a low.
Despite the Consolidation near USD 24,000, the Trend Is Unclear
BTC is trading inside a short-term corrective pattern, but the short-term direction is not yet clear.
Last month, the price of Bitcoin left a descending resistance line in place since late March. There was a relatively weak reaction after the breakout. The cryptocurrency could not reach the Fibonacci retracement resistance level of 0.382.
Although BTC recently reached a local high of USD 25,211, it has created a long top wick and remained bearish.
The price has broken the bullish divergence trend line on the daily RSI preceding the upward move, which often occurs before price declines.
If the value of BTC continues to fall, the closest support area might be at USD 21,550. However, it is a matter of time before knowing how the market will behave and where the price will move next.
By Alexander Salazar
