ETH Bears Will Target under $1,650 on Binance News and Stake Stats

Audy Castañeda
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ETH Bears Will Target under $1,650 on Binance News and Stake Stats

On Monday, Ethereum (ETH) joined the broader market in negative territory, falling 3.38%, to end the day at $1,716. The news that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission sued Binance weighed on investor sentiment. Technical indicators turned more bearish, putting less than $1,650 in sight.

Ethereum (ETH) fell 3.38% on Monday. Reversing a 1.83% gain on Sunday, ETH ended the day at $1,716. The bearish session sent ETH below $1,700 for the first time since March 17.

A bullish start to the day saw ETH rally to an early high of $1,782. Missing the first major resistance level (R1) at $1,804, ETH fell to a mid-afternoon low of $1,688. ETH fell through the first major support level (S1) at $1,744, and briefly through the second major support level (S2) at $1,713, before ending the day at $1,716.

News of CFTC Filing Charges against Binance Weighed

On Monday, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) sent ETH and the broader crypto market into negative territory. The CFTC filed charges against Binance.

According to Monday’s court filing:

“Beginning no later than July 2019, and continuing through the present, Binance, under the direction and control of Zhao and with the voluntary and substantial assistance of Lim, has solicited and accepted orders, accepted ownership on margin, and operated a facility for training futures, options, swaps, and leveraged retail commodity transactions involving digital assets that are commodities including Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH), and Litecoin (LTC) for individuals in the United States.”

A move against Binance is likely to have occurred, following a letter from US lawmakers to Binance in early March. Notably, the filing preceded a hearing on Capitol Hill to investigate the reasons behind the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. Rising hopes of a Ripple victory in the SEC vs. Ripple provided late support as investors shrugged off fears of a banking sector crisis.

Binance and the SEC vs. Ripple will likely be the focal points for investors today. Following the CFTC move, progress towards a Ripple victory against the SEC would ease market tensions.

Ethereum (ETH) Price Action – Technical Indicators

ETH was down 0.06% at $1,715. A range-bound start to the day saw ETH rally to an early high of $1,728, before dipping into the red.

ETH needs to move through the $1,729 pivot to target the first major resistance level (R1) at $1,769, and Monday’s high of $1,782. A return to $1,750 would signal a breakout session. However, crypto news leads must be ETH-friendly to support a breakout.

In the event of a prolonged rally, the bulls would likely test the second major resistance level (R2) at $1823, and resistance at $1850. The third major resistance level (R3) sits at $1,917.

Ethereum sat below the 100-day EMA, currently at $1,722. The 50-day EMA closed above the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA lowering back to the 200-day EMA, providing bearish signals.

A move through the 100-day EMA ($1,722) would support a break of the 50-day EMA ($1,751) and R1 ($1,769) to target R2 ($1,823) and $1,850. However, if it fails to move through the 50-day EMA ($1,751), the bears would have a run at the 200-day EMA ($1,677) and S1 ($1,675). A move through the 50-day EMA would send a bullish signal.

By Audy Castaneda

Fed Increases Tension in Financial Markets and Raises US Interest Rates by 0.25 Percentage Points again

Audy Castañeda
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Fed Increases Tension in Financial Markets and Raises US Interest Rates by 0.25 Percentage Points again

The decision was unanimous and reflects the Fed’s concern about high inflation in the country, despite strong job creation and modest growth in spending and output.

The Federal Reserve, the central bank of the United States, announced an increase in the basic interest rate of 0.25 percentage points to a range of 4.75% to 5% per year, at its most recent meeting.

This is the second monetary policy meeting of the year and the Fed faced a double challenge: continue raising interest rates to combat inflation or pause monetary tightening, given the scenario of uncertainties in the banking sector after the bankruptcy of two banks and aid to a third party.

The Fed statement stressed that the US banking system is strong and resilient, but that recent events could lead to tighter credit conditions for households and businesses and negatively affect economic activity, hiring, and inflation.

The Fed had lowered the upward pace of federal funds at the February meeting, making an initial adjustment of 25 basis points. Previously, there were four consecutive highs of 75 points and a 50-point rise in December 2022. Still, the Fed remains alert to inflation risks and closely monitors the country’s economic situation.

The Market Already Expected the Fed Rise

The Fed decision to raise interest rates by 25 basis points was in line with the expectations of many in the market, according to the CME Group rate monitor, which forecast this rise at 86.4 % of analysts.

In testimony before the US Senate, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell had left open the possibility of an acceleration in US interest rate hikes, citing a hot job market and a high cost of living in the country. This brought expectations of an increase of up to 0.5 percentage points, to 70%.

Today’s decision reflects the Fed’s stance that further tightening may be appropriate to achieve a tight enough stance to return inflation to 2% over time. However, the change in the language used by the Fed is striking, as it no longer speaks directly of continued rate hikes, but of additional policies that may be necessary.

This change in language indicates that the Fed is open to considering other options than simply raising interest rates to combat inflation, which could include measures such as reducing asset purchases.

The Fed Plans Another Rate Hike Later this Year

The Federal Reserve, the central bank of the United States, released its projections for the country’s economy, indicating that the interest rate should close the year at 5.1%. This implies another residual increase until the end of 2023.

The projection is the same as last December, before the inflation and labor indices that were released this year. However, it precedes the crisis that arose among the US regional banks, which forced the Fed to create an emergency program.

Most of the members believe that interest rates should stop rising to a level higher than the current one. However, one member indicated that no further rate increases were needed.

The Fed’s projections for the end of 2024 indicate interest at 4.3%, showing that rate cuts should only happen from next year. With higher interest rates, the unemployment rate, currently at 3.6%, should reach 4.5% by the end of this year and 4.6% in 2024, according to the average of the Fed projections.

For Gross Domestic Product (GDP), those responsible for monetary policy revised downwards the growth of the US economy in 2023 and 2024, to 0.4% and 1.2%, respectively (compared to 0.5% and 1.6%).

By Audy Castaneda

BTC Faces Risk Under $26,000 on Regulatory Risk Jitters

Audy Castañeda
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<strong>BTC Faces Risk Under $26,000 on Regulatory Risk Jitters</strong>

It was a bearish Monday session, with BTC tumbling 3.04%, to end the day at $27,127. News that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission filed charges against Binance sent BTC and the broader crypto market into negative territory. Technical indicators remain bullish, with $28,500 in sight.

On Monday, Bitcoin (BTC) fell 3.04%. Reversing a 1.82% gain from Sunday, BTC ended the day at $27,127.

A mixed start to the day saw BTC rally to an early high of $28,027. Failing to reach the first major resistance level (R1) at $28,324, BTC fell to a mid-afternoon low of $26,536. BTC fell through the first major support level (S1) at $27,158, and briefly through the second major support level (S2) at $26,838, before ending the day at $27,127.

News of CFTC Lawsuit Against Binance Sent BTC into Negative Territory

After a weekend of inactivity, US regulators were back in action on Monday. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has taken over SEC regulation by enforcement mantra, suing Binance for illegally selling crypto derivatives to retail investors.

According to Monday’s court filing, Binance “has solicited and accepted orders, accepted margin ownership, and operated a facility for the training of leveraged futures, options, swaps, and retail commodity transactions.”

Binance has been on the radar of US lawmakers and regulators for some time. In March, US lawmakers on both sides of the aisle sent Binance a letter arguing that “the exchange is a hotbed of illegal financial activity that has facilitated more than $10 billion in payments to criminals and sanctions evaders.”

With the SEC in a long-running battle against Ripple, a long drawn-out case of CFTC vs. Binance would test the resistance of investors. A Ripple victory would change the narrative.

The banking sector will also be in the spotlight today. The Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs will meet in open session for a hearing on “Recent Bank Failures and the Federal Regulatory Response.”

While the focus will be on Binance, US economic indicators will also generate interest, with consumer confidence figures likely to provide guidance.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action – Technical Indicators

This morning, BTC was down 0.17% at $27,080. A range-bound start to the day saw BTC rally to an early high of $27,147, before pulling back.

BTC needs to move through the $27,230 pivot, to target the first major resistance level (R1) at $27,924, and Monday’s high of $28,027. A return to $27,500 would indicate a prolonged bullish session. Crypto news wires need to be crypto-friendly to support a prolonged rally.

In the event of a prolonged rally, BTC would likely test the second major resistance level (R2) at $28,721, and resistance at $29,000. The third major resistance level (R3) sits at $30,212.

BTC settled above the 100-day EMA ($26,398). The 50-day EMA fell back to the 100-day EMA, while the 100-day EMA broke out from the 200-day EMA, sending mixed signals.

A move through the 50-day EMA ($27,327) would support a break of R1 ($27,924) to target R2 ($28,721) and $29,000. However, a drop-through S1 ($26,433) and the 100-day EMA ($26,398) would give the bears a run at S2 ($25,739). A move through the 50-day EMA would send a bullish signal.

By Audy Castaneda

XRP Eyes $0.48 on SEC vs. Ripple Sentiment and Court Rulings

Audy Castañeda
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0
<strong>XRP Eyes $0.48 on SEC vs. Ripple Sentiment and Court Rulings</strong>

On Sunday, XRP rose 1.05% to end the day at $0.44830. Market sentiment towards the SEC vs. Ripple, as well as easing fears of a Deutsche Bank collapse, provided support for prices. Technical indicators remain bullish, indicating a return to $0.50.

On Sunday, XRP rose 1.05%. After a 4.21% rally on Saturday, XRP ended the week up 15.96% at $0.44830. XRP avoided sub-$0.44 for the first time since November 2022.

A mixed start to the day saw XRP fall to an early low of $0.44104. Moving away from the first major support level (S1) at $0.4230, XRP has rallied to a mid-morning high of $0.46378. However, missing the first major resistance level (R1) at $0.4647, XRP pulled back to end the day at $0.44830.

Hopes of a Ripple Victory Against the SEC Spawned a Bullish Session

It was another quiet session, with no updates on the ongoing SEC vs. Ripple to influence investor sentiment. The lack of updates left XRP in the hands of the SEC vs. Ripple and court filings supporting the most optimistic outlook for Ripple and XRP.

Following Ripple’s filings last Monday referencing the judges’ rulings from the Voyager Digital bankruptcy hearings, hopes of a Ripple victory supported a bullish week. As investors consider the implications of a Ripple victory, the rulings on the Hinman Documents could also materially influence the regulatory landscape.

William Hinman has been a central figure in the SEC vs. Ripple. The former Head of the Division of Corporate Finance made a famous speech in 2018, contentiously saying that Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) are not securities. Hinman’s reference to Ethereum was controversial because Hinman’s former and current employee Simpson Thacher is part of a group promoting Enterprise Ethereum. Hinman returned to Simpson Thacher after leaving the SEC.

Investors should monitor the crypto news wire for SEC vs. Ripple. Comments related to last week’s filings and court rulings on the Hinman documents and summary judgment response briefs will play a role.

With the SEC and US lawmakers targeting the crypto asset space, a Ripple win could materially affect the US crypto regulatory landscape, and give more crypto-friendly lawmakers a voice on Capitol Hill.

However, the lack of updates on the SEC vs. Ripple would continue to leave it up to regulators and legislators to do the talking to generate interest. Binance and Coinbase (COIN) remain in the spotlight.

XRP Price Action – Technical Indicators

A bullish start to the day saw XRP rally to an early high of $0.45318, before pulling back.

XRP needs to avoid the $0.4510 pivot, to target the first major resistance level (R1) at $0.4610, and the Sunday high of $0.46378. A return to $0.46 would signal a bullish session. However, the broader crypto market and the SEC vs. Ripple would need to support a breakout.

In the event of another prolonged rally, XRP would likely test the second major resistance level (R2) at $0.4738, and resistance at $0.48. The third main resistance level (R3) sits at $0.4965.

The 50-day EMA has broken further away from the 100-day EMA, and the 100-day EMA has broken out from the 200-day EMA. The EMAs delivered bullish signals.

A hold above the major support levels and the 50-day EMA ($0.42702) would support a break from R1 ($0.4610) to target R2 ($0.4738) and $0.48. However, a drop-through S1 ($0.4383) would put S2 ($0.4283) and 50-day ($0.42702) into play. A drop through the 50-day EMA would send a bearish signal.

By Audy Castaneda

BTC Bulls Will Target $29,000 on SEC vs. Ripple Sentiment

Audy Castañeda
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0
<strong>BTC Bulls Will Target $29,000 on SEC vs. Ripple Sentiment</strong>

It was a bullish Sunday, with BTC rising 1.82%, to end the day at $27,978. Relief from Deutsche Bank jitters provided support, with no crypto events to distract investors. Technical indicators remain bullish, with $30,000 still in sight.

On Sunday, Bitcoin (BTC) rose 1.82%. Following a 0.06% gain on Saturday, BTC ended the week up 0.13% at $27,978.

A mixed start to the day saw BTC fall to an early low of $27,438. Moving away from the first major support level (S1) at $27,158, BTC rallied to an early afternoon high of $28,227. BTC broke above the first major resistance level (R1) at $27,804, and briefly through the second major resistance level (R2) at $28,130, before ending the day at $27,978.

Fears of a Deutsche Bank Collapse Ease to Provide Support

It was another quiet session on Sunday, with no crypto events or news related to the banking sector to spook investors.

Bullish sentiment towards BTC and the broader crypto market resumed amid the banking crisis, with a lack of regulatory activity and talk from US lawmakers also positive for BTC.

While an increasingly active SEC and anti-crypto sentiment on Capitol Hill leave cryptocurrencies in a precarious position, hopes of a Ripple victory in the SEC vs. Ripple could materially change the narrative. XRP had a breakout week with hopes rising for a Ripple victory.

In the final hour, the NASDAQ mini provided more support, with the banking sector likely to be the focal point for global financial markets and BTC in the near term. Alleviating fears of a collapse of Deutsche Bank (DB) provided support for BTC throughout the weekend.

However, headwinds persist, with Binance and Coinbase (COIN) coming under increasing regulatory scrutiny. There is also the lingering risk of another bank going under, after the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank.

Investors should monitor updates on the ongoing SEC vs. Ripple and Binance and Coinbase (COIN) related news. However, the banking sector is likely to remain the area of ​​interest at the start of the week.

There are no US economic indicators influencing the afternoon session, leaving BTC exposed to Fed talk and the NASDAQ Composite Index.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action – Technical Indicators

This morning, BTC was down 0.05% at $27,963. A range-bound start to the day saw BTC rally to an early high of $27,996, before pulling back.

BTC needs to avoid the pivot at $27,881, in order to target the first major resistance level (R1) at $28,324. A move through the Sunday high of $28.227 would indicate an extended bullish session. Crypto news wires need to be crypto-friendly to support a prolonged rally.

In the event of a prolonged rally, BTC would likely test the second major resistance level (R2) at $28,670, and resistance at $29,000. The third major resistance level (R3) sits at $29,459.

BTC settled above the 50-day EMA ($27,344). The 50-day EMA has broken further away from the 100-day EMA, and the 100-day EMA has broken out from the 200-day EMA, sending bullish signals.

A hold above S1 ($27,535) and the 50-day EMA ($27,344) would support a break out of R1 ($28,324) to the R2 ($28,670) target and $29,000. However, a drop-through S1 ($27,535) and the 50-day EMA ($27,344) would give bears a run at S2 ($27,092). A drop through the 50-day EMA would send a bearish signal.

By Audy Castaneda

This Will Be Important for Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies this Week

Audy Castañeda
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0
<strong>This Will Be Important for Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies this Week</strong>

The investors will see the new data on US Consumer Confidence. The latest numbers on Existing Home Sales will be released. The Bureau of National Statistics will announce final US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) numbers. The core PCE inflation rate for the US in February will be released.

In the last week of trading, the key cryptocurrency Bitcoin (BTC) did not make sustainable progress. Despite ongoing problems in the banking sector, the US Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) raised interest rates again by 0.25 percent to 5.00 percent in mid-2019. week.

Bitcoin moved in this 8 percent trading range until the weekly close yesterday. Meanwhile, the banking sector in both the US and Europe came under renewed pressure. The vast majority of financial institutions ended the week close to their weekly lows.

Account holders in the US recently withdrew about $100 billion from large and small US financial institutions. Although the US Treasury Department, after a joint meeting with the Fed and FDIC, once again assured that the financial system would function flawlessly and resiliently, US financial authorities recently considered extending the emergency line of credit to other banks.

US Consumer Confidence Figures

On Tuesday at 16:00 (CET), the Conference Board (CB) will release new US Consumer Confidence figures for the March trading month.

For the month of March, market experts expect a further drop to 101.0. If the forecast is beaten, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is likely to continue the bullish move from last week and could act as a headwind for Bitcoin.

Financial markets should welcome continued weakness in consumer confidence as it would further increase the possibility of interest rate cuts in the coming months.

Pending US Home Sales

The latest US Existing Home Sales figures will be released on Wednesday at 16:00 (CET). Since Existing Home Sales account for about 90 percent of the US housing market, this metric is an important component in assessing US consumer spending.

A complete collapse of the housing market is likely to exacerbate the banking problems in the US and send the US economy into recession. As a result, the US Federal Reserve would have to lower interest rates faster than anticipated.

US Gross Domestic Product

While waiting for the release of the final US gross domestic product figures for the last quarter of 2022, analysts currently anticipate economic growth of 2.7 percent in said period. If the final figures confirm the latest estimate of 2.7 percent, the market reaction could be positive. The Bitcoin price should also trend bullish.

More recently, market participants gave a positive assessment of a strong gross domestic product. If there is renewed weakness, Jerome Powell is likely to continue to come under pressure. So it would be conceivable that the market would rate bad GDP data positively. Rarely have market players been so torn in their interpretation of this important indicator.

Core PCE Inflation Rate for the US in February

At 7.2 percent, the experts’ forecast is well below the final inflation rate of 8.5 percent from the previous month. However, with UK inflation data rising significantly, contrary to expectations, and again in double digits at 10.4 percent, data for Europe could also be above expectations. The result is likely to have a negative impact on the stock market.

By Audy Castaneda

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