Bitcoin’s Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) could repeat history, helping investors stay profitable, as ELR indicated a renewed interest in opening up BTC derivatives contracts

Expecting a short-term Bitcoin [BTC] rally is something many market participants may not expect. However, a pseudonymous CryptoQuant analyst Crazyblockk has spoken out that it is not impossible.

How much is 1,10,100 BTC Worth Today?

According to the analyst, the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) position offers this potential. As a macro market sentiment indicator, the SOPR measures the degree of realized gains moved on the blockchain.

BTC: Offering an Advantage to Holders

SOPR values above 1 suggest that investors are selling at a profit. On the other hand, SOPR values below 1 indicate an average sale at a loss. And, at the time, the value of the metric was above.

However, Crazzyblockk’s argument is the longevity the metric has had in its actual position. In fact, the data sets revealed that Bitcoin’s SOPR has remained above value since March according to a graphic published by CryptoQuant. This led the analyst to compare the status in 2017 and 2019 with today’s SOPR.

Between 2015 and 2016, the SOPR consistently maintained its value above 1. Therefore, this led to the price of BTC reaching $20 000 in 2017. The analyst also mentioned that the SOPR condition in 2019 was crucial for the BTC All-Time High (ATH) in 2021 Crazzyblock added, that when the number 1 in this data holds for consecutive months and the pocket value of these holders moves above this level, it is a sign of strong interest in staying in the market and earning profitability. The 2015 and 2019 price cycles are good examples.

According to the analyst, there is strong interest in the market. Moreover, the precise demand is sufficient to withstand any strong selling pressure, the analyst added.

Big Bets, in Which Direction?

Meanwhile, BTC continued its consolidation over the past 24 hours, despite that, the estimated leverage ratio (ELR) has been rising.

Typically, the ELR shows how much leverage is used by users. And it is calculated by dividing the open interest (OI) by the coin reserves. Lower ELR values suggest that investors are being cautious with the leverage used.

However, when ELR rises, it means that participants are placing large bets on their derivatives traders, this can be observed in a graphic published by CryptoQuant

Is your portfolio green? Check out the Bitcoin Profit Calculator

Whether long or short, the rise also aligns with the aforementioned discussion about strong interest in the market.

In addition, oinonen_t, another CryptoQuant analyst, noted that the collapse of liquidity in the market has not negatively affected Bitcoin’s strength. Citing growing accumulation and active addresses, the analyst noted that the real selling pressure comes from the direction of market makers, who recently dumped a large number of Binance-related altcoins, collapsing liquidity. In contrast to the challenging market environment, bitcoin’s technical and fundamental indicators reflect strength.

By Marina Meza

Traders should prepare for a sharp increase in volatility.

After the altcoin sell-off and the resulting (moderate) drop in the Bitcoin price on Friday, the digital asset market may be facing the most explosive week of the year. Extremely important events are coming up in the trading week that begins today.

Specifically, those events include the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), the US Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) interest rate decision in the Ripple v. SEC, an SEC response to Coinbase’s rulemaking request, and a US District Court hearing on the SEC’s request for a preliminary restraining order against Binance US, and much more.

Tuesday Becomes Blockbuster Day

Tuesday is packed with important events. At 8:30 am, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the latest US inflation data for the month of May. In recent months, the annualized CPI (YoY) has shown a strong downward trend, falling to 4.9% in April. For May, the experts expect a new drop to 4.1%.

If analysts’ expectations are met or even lowered, the chances of a Fed rate pause will improve. The US financial market can be expected to benefit from declining inflation rates, and the Bitcoin and crypto markets will also benefit.

However, close attention will also be paid to the underlying inflation rate and the monthly inflation rates. These numbers recently did not progress as expected by US monetary regulators and remained at elevated levels.

The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is due to respond to Coinbase’s request for rulemaking by that day. Also, at 2:00 p.m., the hearing on the SEC’s Temporary Restraining Order (TRO) against Binance US will take place. Last week, the SEC asked a federal judge in Washington, DC, to freeze the assets of Binance’s US subsidiary.

Furthermore, the alleged disclosure of internal SEC Hinman documents in the Ripple case could be of paramount importance to the crypto market. The Hinman documents could provide insight into Ethereum (ETH)’s previous classification as a non-security, which is now being challenged by SEC Chairman Gary Gensler.

Last but not least, Tuesday also marks the end of the public comment period for the SEC’s proposed expanded definition of exchange, which could require DEXs to register as stock exchanges.

More Crucial Events for Bitcoin and Crypto this Week

On Wednesday, June 14, the Fed will announce its latest interest rate decision at 2:00 p.m. m.

Currently, according to the CME FedWatch tool, only 26% of market participants still expect another 25 basis point rate hike.

Considering the slow cooling of the US economy and job market, most assume a pause in interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Both the stock and Bitcoin markets are likely to react positively if the Fed lives up to these expectations.

Also on Wednesday, the Producer Price Index (PPI), possibly another leading indicator of rapid disinflation, will be released.

Other events worth mentioning are jobless claims on Thursday and customer sentiment on Friday. Therefore, the week is packed with extremely important events.

Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are likely to react in a highly volatile manner. Currently, Bitcoin’s price stood at $25,843, holding above the 200-day EMA.

By Audy Castaneda

Bitcoin’s course had to accept a setback in recent days.

The Bitcoin price has fallen slightly in recent days. The cryptocurrency crash triggered by the SEC lawsuit against Binance also affected Bitcoin, which fell below the $26,000 mark. Compared to Altcoins, though, Bitcoin’s price has lost significantly less.

Above the $27,000 mark, the BTC price fell as low as $25,500. After a slight recovery in the price of Bitcoin for a short time, the cryptocurrency was able to climb back above $27,000.

After the rally, the decline hit the course of Bitcoin the hardest. The price dipped back below the $26,000 mark. The Bitcoin price has now stabilized between 25,500 and 26,000. Overall, Bitcoin has lost just over 5% in value. The Bitcoin forecast for the next few weeks should not be easy due to the current crisis and volatility.

Will the Bitcoin Forecast for the Next Weeks Be Positive or Negative?

The Bitcoin forecast is not easy to make in such difficult times in the crypto market because it could go in different directions right now. At the moment, there is much to suggest that Bitcoin’s course was able to withstand the fall. Therefore, the forecast for Bitcoin for the next few weeks could be very positive.

However, it is uncertain whether or not there will be a stronger drop in the course of Bitcoin. A negative Bitcoin forecast with heavy losses in the coming weeks also seems possible. Therefore, two different scenarios are foreseen.

Bullish Scenario

In the bullish scenario, the Bitcoin price could come out of the crisis with force in the coming weeks. Due to the confidence gained in Bitcoin, a lot of capital is flowing from Altcoins to Bitcoin, and the price could go back up to $30,000.

Getting past the $27,000 mark will be important. If Bitcoin price could quickly build support there, it could move back to $30,000 quickly. For this scenario, the Bitcoin forecast for the next 4 weeks is $28,000 to $31,000.

Bearish Scenario

In this scenario, if the crash impacts the Bitcoin course, there is even a risk that it will fall back to $20,000. By doing so, the $25,500 support would be broken, and Bitcoin would drop to $20,000. However, a drop below this mark seems rather unlikely.

At the moment, this scenario seems quite unlikely. Nevertheless, there is no way of knowing if more bad news will affect the market and push the price of Bitcoin toward $20,000. For this scenario, the Bitcoin forecast is $20,500 to $22,500.

Other Aspects to Consider

Despite a sell-off in the altcoin sector, the Bitcoin (BTC) price was able to hold for the moment, and once again defended the important support area around US$25,300.

A few hours before the end of the week on Sunday night, the cryptocurrency was trading around US$26,000, about two percent above its weekly low. Despite this relative strength, Bitcoin’s technical situation is more precarious than it has been for a long time.

An increasing number of altcoin projects have been classified as unsecured securities by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in recent days. In view of the negative news, the crypto space was unable to benefit recently from the positive price development in the US stock market. Only Bitcoin, number two Ethereum (ETH) and, surprisingly, Ripple (XRP) were able to get out of it with single-digit price declines in a weekly comparison.

By Audy Castaneda

This week, Bitcoin whales maintained the pace of the previous week despite crackdowns by the SEC.

Amid the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) crackdown on major cryptocurrency exchanges, Bitcoin whales have maintained a steady stream of shipments to centralized exchanges (CEXs).

Despite the expectations, the trading activity of these large Bitcoin holders was almost identical to that of the previous week. This suggests that the whales are not centralized in the US, and are using their ability to move to other exchanges.

Either way, these investors are unwilling to change their plans because of the regulators’ crackdown on trading firms. Data presented here was taken from Whale Alert and WhaleBot Alerts. Their interpretation was carried out by means of the classical method of whale analysis. All numbers are public and available on the web.

Bitcoin Whales Keep Pace Despite Regulatory Measures

The SEC’s aggressiveness against the two largest CEXs in the world was supposed to cause a stir. However, the Bitcoin whales kept their pace as if nothing had happened.

Something similar, although not as marked, happened with the Bitcoin price. Despite the coin having a negative record of -5.25% for the last 7 days, there was no crash. It should be noted that crypto trading is strongly tied to exchanges.

Since 2017, centralized platforms have become mainstays for buying and selling virtual currencies. The SEC’s drawn aggression against these companies was supposed to cause a setback in market stability, judging by the slump after the FTX crash. The reality, though, is that almost a week after the events, the price remains above the 25K support.

Not only is it that the Bitcoin whales maintained a constant pace, but it points to most movements precisely towards the CEX.

Bitcoin Whale Activity During the Week

Last week, large investors moved a total of 229,662 BTC, from which 145,999 bitcoins were sent to the exchanges, representing 63.57% of all the coins transacted in operations of +400 BTC.

On the other hand, 80,863 bitcoins, equivalent to 35.21%, were sent to accumulation wallets. Furthermore, 2,800 BTC, or 1.22% of the total, was transacted between exchanges, suggesting that arbitrage activity was also present.

It is important to note that this analysis of the movement of Bitcoin whales is a limited sample. In other words, it only covers a part of the movements of the whales and not all of their transactions.

The Crypto Community and the SEC

The crypto community seems to display an attitude of “irrelevance” towards the actions of the SEC. Despite regulatory crackdowns against Binance and Coinbase, the two largest platforms, Bitcoin Whales kept up a steady stream of shipments to CEXs.

On Monday and Tuesday, when the SEC took action against both platforms, the Bitcoin whales sent a total of 75,569 bitcoins to the CEX only in transactions of +400 BTC. This represents 51% of all coins sent to exchanges for the entire week.

Bitcoin Whales and the Future of Regulation

The actions of Bitcoin whales over the past week suggest that these large investors are unwilling to change their plans due to regulatory measures.

Despite the SEC’s actions, the Bitcoin whales have maintained a steady flow of shipments to CEXs, demonstrating their resistance to regulatory measures and their confidence in the future of the crypto market.

By Audy Castaneda