According to Pantera Capital, Bitcoin is Set to Reach close to USD 150,000 During its Next Four-year Cycle of Halving

Audy Castañeda
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According to Pantera Capital, Bitcoin is Set to Reach close to USD 150,000 During its Next Four-year Cycle of Halving

In its latest “Blockchain Letter,” published on Aug. 22nd, the cryptoasset manager’s executives reaffirmed their bullish forecasts for the BTC price for 2024 and beyond.

Bitcoin’s price performance is highly dependent on its halving cycles, Pantera Capital explained, and given that the next one will occur in the next twelve months, the firm is betting that historical trends will continue.

BlockHash’s Brandon Zemp indicated that he expects that the SEC will approve at least one Bitcoin ETF in the next six months.

The BTC/USD pair, Zemp noted, tends to make both a low cycle and a high cycle in roughly the same time period since each halving, which reduces the number of bitcoin paid to miners per block by 50%.

Although, Bitcoin has historically bottomed 477 days before the halving, rallied as it approached, and exploded to the upside afterward, he wrote. Post-halving rallies have averaged 480 days from hibernation to the peak of the next bull cycle.

Pantera continued by signifying that same theory suggests that the 2022 bear market bottom marked the current bottom of the BTC price cycle and if history were to repeat itself, the price of bitcoin should have bottomed on December 30th, 2022.

What does Bitcoin have in common with gold, the dollar and the S&P 500?

Looking ahead, by the halving date in April 2024, the BTC/USD pair could be traded around USD 35,000, something that is still on track to be achieved. However, what happens in the 480 days after that does not only imply a new all-time high, but much more.

Pantera stated that the 2016 halving decreased the supply of new bitcoins by only one-third that of the first, and remarkably, it had exactly one-third the impact on the price. The 2020 halving reduced the supply of new bitcoins by 43% relative to the previous one. It had a 23% better price impact.

The next halving is expected to occur on April 20th, 2024. Given that most bitcoins are now in circulation, each halving will account for almost exactly half of the reduction in the new supply. If history were to repeat itself, Bitcoin would rise to USD 35,000 before the halving and USD 148,000 after it occurs.

With 480 days to go before a halving in April 2024, bitcoin is set to reach its next all-time high in July 2025. Bitcoin bulls can expect gains of 4.2x. This can be observed in a chart entitled Characteristics of bitcoin halving published by Pantera Capital.

Pantera is not alone in predicting six-figure highs for the BTC price beyond next year.

Why has the cryptocurrency market fallen this week?

Among the most optimistic forecasts are those based on bitcoin’s “Lowest Price Forward” metric, which this month showed that the BTC/USD pair would surpass the USD 100,000 barrier by 2026. Others also believe that it is possible to reach USD 100,000, but not before halving next year. This is shown in a BTC/USD pair performance chart developed by Pantera Capital.

By Audy Castañeda

Bitcoin Sees a Sudden 4% Rise after Investors Anticipated a Lower Probability of a September Interest Rate Hike

Audy Castañeda
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Bitcoin Sees a Sudden 4% Rise after Investors Anticipated a Lower Probability of a September Interest Rate Hike

Bitcoin, the first cryptocurrency, has been the subject of debate and speculation since its inception in 2009. Originally a niche electronic currency, it is now a major financial asset with ups and downs.

After the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization surged nearly 4% to nearly $26,800 on Wednesday and held above $26,000 for 24 hours, Bitcoin was still hovering around $26,100 on Thursday morning.

The whole market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies, around $1.06 trillion, showed a 1% increase day over day. The rally in the cryptocurrency market mirrors a rise in the stock market, with the S&P 500 1% also up about and the 2% NASDAQ up.

Bitcoin’s Recent Price Moves Follow a Surprising Stability

Analysts attributed the Bitcoin price rise to poor PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) numbers, an indicator of economic trends in the manufacturing and service industries.

According to James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares, a European alternative asset manager, the lower PMI numbers indicated a market contraction, which promises well for a slowdown in inflation and suggests a lower probability of a rate hike in September.

Joel Kruger, market strategist at LMAX Electronic, a crypto exchange for institutional echoed Butterfill’s analysis indicating that the main basic catalyst for the upward movement is coming from the traditional markets. That will be like fortune in an email. Taking into account the rally in stocks and the sell-off in the U.S. dollar, Bitcoin was able to benefit. This is shown in the Bitcoin price chart over the past 24 hours published by Noticias Blockchain.

Bitcoin Price Ups and Downs

Bitcoin’s price rally follows a precipitate drop last week in which it fell nearly 8%, dragging the rest of the cryptocurrency market down with it. Bitcoin’s recent price ups and downs also come during a period of relative stability for the historically volatile asset. Its 90-day volatility rate was recently the lowest since 2016.

Those reasonably calm waters contrasted with Bitcoin’s price surge throughout 2023. January was a period in which Bitcoin price was less than $17,000, but in the midst of the March banking crisis that brought down Silicon Valley Bank, Bitcoin surged to nearly $28,000.

After stagnating for two months, the digital asset soared to over $31,000 following BlackRock’s application for a Bitcoin spot ETF, a move that many saw as a resounding sign of approval for the cryptocurrency, given that BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, is a titan in the financial industry.

CoinShares’ Butterfill explained that the main reason there haven’t been significant price increases even with real economic prospect and favorable valuation metrics is because investors are currently in a holding pattern, awaiting the SEC’s verdict on the approval of a U.S. spot ETF.

Bearing in mind what has been explained, there is hope on the fact Bitcoin remains bullish in both the short and long term. While it is undoubtedly a unpredictable electronic asset, it has a long history of outperforming the market going back nearly a decade.

By Audy Castañeda

BIS Warns: Cryptocurrencies Are Risky for Emerging Countries

Leonardo Perez
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BIS Warns: Cryptocurrencies Are Risky for Emerging Countries

The Bank for International Settlements once again warns emerging countries about the use of cryptocurrencies. The BIS points out that cryptocurrencies are being sold as an alternative to the financial system, although it did not mention the case of El Salvador. It advised authorities not to automatically classify digital assets as “dangerous” as “technology has been key to driving improvement” in financial services.

The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) warned in its latest analysis that the current cryptocurrency market is “very unstable” and poses risks and concerns for emerging economies and their financial stability.

In the report Financial Stability Risks from Cryptoassets in Emerging Market Economies, the BIS highlighted that cryptocurrencies have an “illusory” appeal because they seem like a quick fix. It said it was “concerned” that crypto is sold in emerging countries as an alternative to the financial system.

The BIS: Cryptocurrencies Amplify Inflation Problems

For the BIS, cryptocurrencies have been promoted as “a substitute” for national currencies in developing countries (although it does not mention El Salvador, it describes it) or with inflation problems, so far from helping, they amplify financial risks. The BIS considers that cryptocurrencies require evaluation in developing countries:

“They must be evaluated from a risk point of view and regulatory perspective like all other assets. This will be even more pressing if crypto assets are more widely adopted by retail investors and if links to the traditional financial system increase.”

The BIS’s animosity towards cryptocurrencies is longstanding and its anti-Bitcoin stances are recognized around the world. In the first quarter, he assumed that the exposure of banks to cryptocurrencies registered a decrease during the year 2022, of 40% worldwide.

A post on X by BIS points out the following:

“Central banks in the Americas find that there are diverse links between #CryptoAsset markets and the traditional financial system. As the degree of interconnectedness becomes stronger, risks can spill over more easily from one to the other: https://bis.org/publ/bppdf/bispap138.htm”

A few months ago, the international organization criticized that other reasons for low crypto adoption are linked to the bear market and the collapse of FTX. In addition, it explained that the banks’ exposure to cryptocurrencies went from 61.7% in 2021 to 15.4% in 2022. The notes were collected between June 10, 2021 and June 30, 2022.

On this occasion, the BIS urged governments in emerging countries to “take action” to address risks, which range from prohibitions, containment and regulation. However, it advised the authorities not to automatically classify digital assets as “dangerous”, since “technology has been key to driving improvement” in financial services.

“While cryptocurrency-related activities have not met their stated goals to date, the technology can still be applied in various constructive ways. Creating a regulatory framework to channel innovation in socially useful directions will continue to be a key challenge in the future.”

The BPI Bets on Tokenization and CBDC

Globally, the BIS’ push for central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) is recognized. In its latest 2023 Annual Economic Report, it highlighted the role that tokenization and CBDCs will play. It stated that the integration of a CBDC would serve to “guarantee a new type of infrastructure for the financial market.”

For the BIS, previous tokenization efforts were hampered by a lack of access to central bank-issued money. Problem that would be fixed by integrating a CBDC.

By Leonardo Pérez

Mysterious Bitcoin Wallet Ranking Climbs, Challenges for Holders and More

Audy Castañeda
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Mysterious Bitcoin Wallet Ranking Climbs, Challenges for Holders and More

The news is varied, ranging from an enigmatic Bitcoin wallet to regulatory debates in emerging markets.

From the rise of a mysterious Bitcoin wallet to holder challenges in today’s market – here are the most relevant headlines right now.

Bitcoin Wallet Climbs Quickly in the Ranking of Global Holders

A Bitcoin wallet has impressively climbed the ranking of the largest holders of the cryptocurrency. According to data from BitInfoCharts, the wallet address received its first Bitcoin on March 8. In the span of three months and two weeks that followed, the wallet managed to accumulate a staggering 118,000 BTC, valued at $3.08 billion at current prices.

Although speculation about its identity abounds, some suggest that it could be a cryptocurrency exchange on the move.

The Challenges of Bitcoin Holders in the Current Market

Market volatility has pushed short-term Bitcoin holders back into negative territory. A report from Glassnode reveals that 88.3% of short-term holders’ supply, or 2.26 million BTC, is at unrealized loss. Despite the 10% drop in BTC, long-term holders have shown to remain calm, which is typical behavior in bear market periods.

According to the report, though, short-Term Holders however “are of greater interest, with 88.3% of their held supply (2.26M BTC) now held at an unrealized loss.” This consists of “an acceleration in STH realized losses being sent to exchanges, as well as the loss of key technical moving average support, putting the bulls on the back-foot.”

Friend.tech Platform Denies User Data Leak

The team behind the decentralized social networking platform Friend.tech has denied a report that the personal information of more than 100,000 users had been leaked. The team clarified that the information came from pulling from their public API, and likened the situation to looking at a public Twitter feed.

On August 21, Friend.tech posted on X the following:

“This is just someone scraping our public API that shows the association between public wallet addresses and public Twitter usernames. It’s like saying someone hacked you by looking at your public Twitter feed. Irresponsible reporting from @TheBlock_ and @vishal4c.”

Call for Regulation on Cryptocurrencies in Emerging Markets

A group of central bankers led by Mexico and Colombia have called for regulation rather than an outright ban on cryptocurrencies in emerging markets. Although cryptocurrencies offer alternatives to traditional finance, they also present financial risks. Experts believe that regulation would be preferable to channel innovation in socially useful directions.

Cryptocurrencies have become a tempting option in emerging economies, where fiat currency volatility and limited access to traditional banking services drive the search for alternatives. According to Chainalysis data, only two of the 20 jurisdictions with the highest rates of cryptocurrency adoption worldwide are from the developed world, with Vietnam, Brazil, and India making up the rest.

Terra Temporarily Closes its Website Due to the Rise of Phishing Scams

Terra, a Layer 1 blockchain, has temporarily shut down its website in order to protect users from ongoing phishing scams plaguing the platform. It officially announced Terra on X (formerly Twitter) on August 22:

“Update: The terra(dot) money domains have successfully been frozen to prevent further user phishing scams, but a full resolution is still underway.”

By Audy Castaneda

Republican Presidential Candidate’s Criticism of BlackRock Goes Viral

Audy Castañeda
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Republican Presidential Candidate’s Criticism of BlackRock Goes Viral

A 2024 Republican candidate criticizes BlackRock as part of a powerful elite targeting ESG standards in corporate America. Vivek Ramaswamy, a distant third in the polls, is challenging BlackRock along with State Street and Vanguard for pushing ESG agendas. Despite the criticism, spot approval of BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF seems likely, as noted by Galaxy Digital’s Mike Novogratz.

One of the main contenders in the race for becoming the next Republican candidate for the presidency of the United States has accused BlackRock of being part of the “most powerful cartel in the history of humanity.”

Vivek Ramaswamy made the remarks at the Richard Nixon Foundation on Sunday. They quickly spread to many parts of the online space.

Vivek Ramaswamy Still a Distant Third

The shadow candidate, who is closing in on runner-up Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, has been an outspoken critic of environmental, social and governance (ESG) standards at corporate America.

The candidate has generated controversy. However, Ramaswamy remains a distant third, reaching just 9% in the polls. He is still far behind former President Donald Trump, who is over 50%.

The attack on BlackRock is one of the loudest in recent months. Furthermore, it comes at a critical time for BlackRock as it seeks timely approval of the Bitcoin ETF from the Securities and Exchange Commission.

If given the green light, this could be one of the first spot Bitcoin ETFs for US investors. The asset manager led the recent wave of applications, submitting them on June 16. Others, including Invesco, WisdomTree, ARK Invest, and Valkyrie, joined soon after.

In a post on X (formerly Twitter), Ramaswamy singled out BlackRock, State Street and Vanguard, the “Big Three” investment firms. He stated the following:

“BlackRock, State Street and Vanguard represent the most powerful cartel in human history: They are the largest shareholders in nearly every public company and use *their* own money to push ESG agendas on companies. boards of directors: voting for equity audits and Scope 3 emissions limits.”

He goes on to stress that:

“This raises serious fiduciary, antitrust and conflict of interest concerns. As president, I will cut off the true guiding hand of the ESG movement: not the invisible hand of the free market, but the invisible fist of government itself.”

BlackRock Has Sought to Dodge the ESG Label

What is at stake is “our very sovereignty,” Ramaswamy said during his speech, calling it a “monarchical vision.”

“We the people cannot be trusted with such questions. So business leaders, government leaders and three-letter institutions need to work together, blurring the boundaries between the public and private sectors.”

Since 2017, BlackRock has strived to reinvent itself as a leader in the ESG movement. ESG advocates want to encourage companies to do good things for the environment, society and their own management.

However, ESG’s critics believe that it imposes a political agenda on companies that should be looking out for their own interests. Additionally, in theory, those of its shareholders, who do not obtain maximum returns through ESG investing.

Since then, BlackRock has sought to distance itself from the movement a bit. Or at least to avoid being smeared with your terminology. In June, Larry Fink, BlackRock’s chief executive, said he had stopped using the term “weaponized” ESG in recent months.

Recent reports suggest that despite the vicious attacks, BlackRock may have little to worry about. At least when it comes to your Bitcoin Spot ETF.

Multiple sources have confirmed to Galaxy Digital’s Mike Novogratz that approval is a matter of “when, not if,” according to an earning’s call on August 8. Galaxy Digital has partnered with Invesco on its own Bitcoin ETF application.

By Audy Castaneda

ILO Ensures that AI Would Not Replace Jobs but Complement Them

Audy Castañeda
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ILO Ensures that AI Would Not Replace Jobs but Complement Them

According to the ILO, only 24% of administrative tasks are considered highly exposed to automation. According to the report, whether AI technology has a positive or negative impact on work depends largely on how workers use it. The ILO revealed that the effects of AI on employment vary from country to country, due to differences in occupational structures.

A recent report published by the International Labor Organization (ILO) revealed that, contrary to what many think, AI would not replace existing jobs, but rather complement them.

There are many fears around the scope of Artificial Intelligence (AI), but apparently some of them are unfounded. The ILO recently published a document called Generative AI and Jobs: A Global Solution Analysis of Possible Effects on Employment, where it assures that AI would not replace current jobs.

AI Would Not Replace Jobs: Technology Would Be a Tool

The ILO claims that technological advances tend to feel more immediate in the workplace. Therefore, whether AI technology has a positive or negative impact depends largely on how workers use it.

The report suggests that the biggest impact of this technology is likely not to be job destruction, but rather potential changes in the quality of jobs, particularly work intensity and autonomy.

“Administrative work is the category with the highest technology exposure, with almost a quarter of tasks considered highly exposed and more than half of tasks with medium-level exposure. In other professional groups, such as managers, professionals and technicians, only a small part of the tasks were considered highly exposed, while about a quarter had a medium level of exposure.”

“Probably the most important impact of technology is to increase work (automate some tasks within an occupation and leave time for other tasks) rather than fully automate occupations.”

The ILO report also revealed that only 24% of administrative tasks are considered highly exposed to automation. For their part, an additional 58% have medium-level exposure. For the agency, the effects of AI on employment vary depending on the country, due to the difference in occupational structures.

“In low-income countries, only 0.4% of total employment is potentially exposed to the effects of automation, while in high-income countries the proportion rises to 5.5%.”

The ILO reveals that although AI would not generally replace current jobs, women are the most affected by AI automation.

“3.7% of all female employment in the world corresponds to jobs potentially automatable with generative AI technology, compared to only 1.4% of male employment.”

The Importance of Legislation Around AI

The document published by the ILO warns that laws are needed to regulate the application of AI in the workplace. To date, much of the AI ​​regulation debate has ignored its potential effects on working conditions.

“AI tools can aggravate power relations in the workplace, especially if workers cannot access the data used to survey their workers. There should be mechanisms in place to assess the use of technology in the workplace.”

In addition to what is mentioned in the study, and in order to establish greater security for users. Joe Biden proposed in March 2023 that AI systems build in security measures from the start, rather than add on over time. In this way, the president believes that the safety of citizens could be further protected.

By Audy Castaneda

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