ARB Traders May See Bearish Outlook Despite Recent Gains. Here Is Why…

Leonardo Perez
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ARB Traders May See Bearish Outlook Despite Recent Gains. Here Is Why…

Arbitrum has a bearish bias in the higher term and short sellers could have an opportunity soon. The local highs on the daily chart could be retested this week, but will the bulls be able to overcome them?

The cryptocurrency market is never short of excitement and surprises, and this time, the focus is on Arbitrum, which has been battling a downward trend amid widespread weakness in the futures markets. This downward trend has led to the vast majority of ARB investors facing considerable losses.

During this month, Arbitrum has faced significant challenges, recording new lows on three occasions since the beginning of September. The downward pressure recently intensified when certain actors sold large amounts of ARB tokens on September 11. This has contributed to the growing lack of trust in Arbitrum due to its persistent disadvantages. As an example, Wintermute Trading deposited over 4.35 million ARB on Binance, underscoring the selling pressure in the market.

The bulls had some success last week. The trend has been overwhelmingly bearish since late August, but things started to improve on September 12. However, the price chart showed that the short-term gains could be erased as ARB approached a region of strong resistance.

Prices aside, Arbitrum tokenomics has been a topic of conversation. It is another factor that traders and especially long-term investors should take into account. Over the next week, here’s why bullish momentum could stall.

Worth Watching Fibonacci Retracement Levels and Liquidity Pockets to the North

Based on the decline from $0.923 to $0.739 that began on September 8, a set of Fibonacci retracement levels (pale yellow) was plotted. It showed the 61.8% and 78.6% levels at $0.853 and $0.884, marking them as levels where a bearish reversal could occur.

The ARB market structure on the one-day chart was bearish, although bullish on the H4 chart. Similarly, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) noted strong bullish momentum in the past few days. Furthermore, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) also skyrocketed to indicate a notable capital inflow into the Arbitrum market.

However, on-balance volume (OBV) has remained stubbornly stable over the past ten days even as prices have risen, suggesting a lack of demand behind the move. Therefore, short sellers can wait and watch the token’s reaction in the $0.88-$0.9 region.

Could Liquidity Pools Just Above $0.9 Attract ARB?

Coinalyze data highlighted the bearish sentiment in the near term. The open interest (OI) fell lower in the last 24 hours as Arbitrum noted a drop from $0.87 to $0.836, which was a sign of discouraged bulls. The spot cumulative volume delta (CVD) also trended lower since September 16 to underline the selling pressure in the spot markets.

The data shows large sell orders in the area between $0.84 and $0.912, which amounted to just over $1 million. Furthermore, the $0.91-$0.93 area was important as it was close to the previous lower high on the daily chart.

Therefore, it was also possible that the current bounce could extend to $0.92 before the bulls run out and the bears can take control again. To the south, a bearish target would be the lows of $0.739 and the 23.6% Fibonacci extension level of $0.6955.

Although the current situation is challenging, the crypto community will closely watch any signs of recovery and any measures Arbitrum takes to address its current challenges. As always, caution and careful research are essential for cryptocurrency investors who want to make informed decisions in an ever-evolving market.

By Leonardo Pérez

Dormant Bitcoin Activity Gains Prominence

Audy Castañeda
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Dormant Bitcoin Activity Gains Prominence

Activity in Bitcoin shows a clear rise in dormant coins, which could be a sign of an accumulation trend.

Although the price of Bitcoin is not in the best moment, the dormant activity of its holders seems to increase. Thus, bitcoiners seem to be accumulating coins in anticipation of a possible bull run that would be at hand.

Currently, the latest momentum in the coin’s price appears to be losing steam and remains just above $27,000. If it did not hold above that barrier, this would have been a new failed attempt to break out of the downtrend and stagnation. The latter predominates during the second half of 2023.

However, the community is expecting a catalyst that, probably in a few months, will lift the crypto market out of the current ditch. In this way, the sector wants to receive this hypothetical upward trend with the best possible preparation. This translates into accumulating and lowering the pace of commercial activity.

Bitcoin’s Current Dormant Activity

With the halving and a possible approval of a spot ETF, Bitcoin’s dormant activity seems to intensify in anticipation of the rise. Both cases are considered bullish elements for the price. For example, halving has historically ended with large price increases, although not in the immediate term.

On the other hand, the approval of a spot ETF by the SEC would open the doors to institutional investors. In that sense, institutional demand would grow strongly, causing the price of the pioneering digital currency to rise.

Glassnode data clearly shows how holders are waiting for the rise. On exchanges, coins that haven’t moved for 1-5 years are near all-time highs right now. This trend would have intensified since July year.

Consequently, 68.5% or 36.7 million of the addresses that have held BTC for a year or more did not make any movements. These data are equivalent to the CoinMarketCap measurement. It can be said that the most committed investors know that an uptrend is much closer than many assume and hence their dormant activity with Bitcoin.

Given this scenario, investor David Battaglia published a reflection pointing out that, for him, selling BTC at this time is a wrong move due to its bullish potential and the advantages it offers over other existing currencies.

Exchange Exits Also On the Rise

Withdrawals of BTC coins from centralized exchanges are also on the rise. This has two components: the first is the distrust of users towards these platforms and the second is the transfer towards long-term accumulation portfolios.

The same statistics site shows the degree of decline in balances, which also applies to ETH. Until now, Binance, the most important exchange in the world, remains the largest holder of coins under management. However, it is also the one that has experienced the greatest outflow in recent weeks.

Of the top 10 largest exchanges, only OKX maintained a larger BTC inflow than outflows recently. All of this leads to increased dormant Bitcoin activity, which portends a possible bull run in the price of it and the rest of the digital currencies.

On the other hand, there are those who claim that the price of BTC must still hit bottom in order to start an upward trend. Among these, Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Jamie Coutts stands out, who recently stated that the currency entered a selling position.

By Audy Castaneda

Ethereum Price Drops, But Key Support Remains Intact

Leonardo Perez
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Ethereum Price Drops, But Key Support Remains Intact

ETH started another decline and traded below the $1,630 support, like Bitcoin.

Ethereum price corrected lower from the $1,670 resistance against the US Dollar. ETH could take a big hit if it breaks the $1,600 support. Ethereum started a bearish wave from the $1,660 resistance. The price is trading below $1,640 and the 100-hourly simple moving average.

A key bearish trend line is forming with resistance near $1,640 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data via Kraken). The pair must hold above the $1,600 support zone to start another rise in the near term.

Ethereum Price Further Slides

Ethereum price failed to break above the $1,660 and $1,670 resistance levels. As a result, ETH started another decline and traded below the $1,630 support, like Bitcoin. The price also moved below the $1,620 support. However, the bulls are active near the $1,600 level.

A low is forming near $1,606 and the price is now consolidating losses. It is trading near the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the downward move from the high of $1,659 to the low of $1,606. Ether is now trading below $1,640 and the 100-hourly simple moving average.

There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near $1,640 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD. On the upside, the price could face resistance near the $1,630 level and the 100-hourly simple moving average.

The next resistance is near the $1,640 level and the trend line. The trend line is also near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the downward move from the high of $1,659 to the low of $1,606.

The main resistance is now forming near $1,660. A close above the $1,660 resistance could send the price towards the $1,720 resistance. The next major barrier is near the $1,750 level. A close above the $1,750 level could see Ethereum rise further towards $1,820.

More Losses in ETH?

If Ethereum fails to overcome the $1,640 resistance, it could start another decline. Initial support on the downside is near the $1,600 level. A drop below $1,600 could accelerate losses.

The next key support is near $1,540, below which the price could even test the $1,500 level. The next key support is $1,440.

MACD Hourly Technical Indicators – The MACD for ETH/USD is losing momentum in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI – The RSI for ETH/USD is now below the 50 level. Main Support Level: $1,600 Main Resistance Level: $1,640.

Is Ethereum Valuation Undervalued?

In another vein, an analysis carried out by a joint company between Re7 Capital and Republic Crypto called RxR has indicated that the valuation of Ethereum is undervalued and pegs it at $275 billion.

The report used a modified model centered on Metcalfe, noting that existing models do not take scale dynamics into account.

“Ethereum Network Valuation tracks the updated ML Index better when the active user base of Ethereum scaling networks is factored into the model than when it is omitted,” said RxR analyst Lewis Harland.

The report added that the market has not yet priced in Ethereum adoption levels. “User growth on Ethereum as an application platform will outpace simple value transfer networks over time, implying higher relative valuations based on Metcalfe’s law,” Harland noted.

Ethereum moves at $1,640. The 70 and 200-period moving averages are above the price, RSI is down at 47 points and the MACD lines are up towards the zero level.

By Leonardo Pérez

US Senator Reintroduces Bill to Ban CBDCs

Audy Castañeda
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US Senator Reintroduces Bill to Ban CBDCs

Senator Tom Emmer today reintroduced the proposal to ban CBDCs to the Financial Services Committee for discussion. Emmer argued that a CBDC could allow the federal government to monitor and restrict citizens’ transactions. Representative Stephen Lynch of Massachusetts has called Emmer’s proposal “an act of stupidity.”

Republican Party Senator Tom Emmer has reintroduced the CBDC ban proposal to the Financial Services Committee for discussion today.

While the CBDC discourse seems to be taken for granted in different parts of the world, the case of the United States is an exception that is impossible to ignore.

Tom Emmer Argues that CBDCs Go Against the Anti-Surveillance Law

The proposed bill would block the direct issuance of a central bank digital currency to individuals by the Federal Reserve. This bill, known as the “Anti-State CBDC Surveillance Act,” HR 5403, was introduced by Representative Tom Emmer of Minnesota and generated strong support among Republicans.

“The Financial Services Committee will vote today on my bill, the State CBDC Anti-Surveillance Law. Look at my comments from the debate,” Emmer pointed out.

Emmer argued that a CBDC, a form of programmable money controlled by the government, could allow the federal government to monitor and restrict citizens’ transactions, which he sees as a threat to core American values ​​of privacy and individual freedom.

The Federal Reserve has been exploring the possibility of issuing a CBDC, although one official recently noted that it is nowhere near development. Last year, the Fed released a report analyzing the pros and cons of this new form of digital currency.

However, this bill has not been without criticism. Democrats on the committee, such as Representative Stephen Lynch of Massachusetts, have called the proposal an “act of stupidity” and argued that the United States is at a tipping point where it should be participating in the conversation about CBDCs, instead of retreating.

CBDCs Increasingly Divide Political and Economic Actors

The debate over the implementation of a CBDC in the United States continues to divide Congress, with strong arguments both for and against this new form of digital money and its potential impact on the privacy and financial freedom of citizens.

The question of whether the United States should move toward a CBDC or seek alternative solutions in the private sector is one of great importance. Just as its resolution will have significant repercussions on the economy and the lives of American citizens for years to come.

The future of this proposal now heads to the House of Representatives as a whole. However, his fate in the Senate is uncertain, where he will likely face fierce opposition from Democrats. Just five days ago the United States Congress discussed the issue in a hearing titled “Digital Dollar Dilemma.” It has been a key scenario to discuss the implications of a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) and possible private sector alternatives.

In this hearing, the acute dilemma facing the country regarding the implementation of a CBDC was revealed. Likewise, the fierce opposition of some influential actors, in particular, the American Bankers Association (ABA).

Currently, the economic issue in the United States is the “future” of CBDCs, which could be not only the future of money, but also that of surveillance and privacy, depending on the legislative entelechies that may be carried out.

In a context in which inflation is no longer the most relevant issue for legislators, attention has focused on the “future” of CBDCs. This discussion transcends the economic sphere and delves into crucial issues of surveillance and privacy.

By Audy Castaneda

Will Toncoin Reach $3?

Leonardo Perez
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Will Toncoin Reach $3?

Bitcoin remains as the leading and most recognized digital currency. The current rally in the price of the Toncoin token could take the currency to the $3 barrier before the end of 2023.

An inevitable question in the current situation of the cryptocurrency market has to do with the TON token. Knowing whether Toncoin price will reach $3 with the momentum of the current rally seems essential for investors. The rise of this project looks overwhelming.

However, there are doubts whether the current momentum is sustainable or a correction is coming soon. The Chinese proverb that no tree can grow to the sky is one that best suits risk assets. In that sense, the magnitude of the TON rally does not seem like an exception.

Either way, analysts remain divided on what the price top will be before the correction. Likewise, there is debate about the depth of the price decline after the current impulse. The latter will depend on the balance between committed investors and speculators.

This is the Toncoin Price Rally

The fact that the Toncoin price is on the rise is not surprising at all. So far this year, especially in recent months, its rise has been meteoric and its interruptions have not been traumatic.

This raises hopes that the current rally is organic and the expected correction is not larger. In any case, the most optimistic analysts expect the currency to comfortably reach $3 per unit before the end of the year.

Currently, the value of TON is $2.49 per token, according to data from the CoinMarketCap portal. Thus, within one month, its performance exceeds +87% and almost +44% in the last 7 days. Despite this, its performance so far this year is not so explosive, given that in January its price was $2.30.

However, during the June fall, the currency dropped to $1.20 from where the meteoric rise of the second half began. From there it touched the $2 barrier at the beginning of the month, from which it was rejected in a massive sale until Monday, September 11.

TON’s decline culminated with a low of $1.02 on June 10. On September 15, after remaining in effect for 270 days, the TON price broke the descending resistance line. The surge came shortly after the TON wallet went live on Telegram, gaining visibility among 800 million users.

From Average to Top Project

Another notable element that the current TON rally brings is that the currency considerably improved its category. From being considered a mid-market capitalization project, it now enters the top 10 of the most important in the world.

It occupies position 9 in that ranking after removing Tron from the top and moving Solana to position 10. According to specialized media analysts, the price of Toncoin will soon reach $2.64 per coin. Meanwhile, the $3 barrier will be overcome without major problems before the end of the year.

From the BeInCrypto portal they are a little more conservative and consider that although the currency can reach $3 dollars, there are also dangers. Thus, if the current rally is not able to sustain itself, the value of the token could fall to the range of $1.77-$1.97.

Among the current price drivers is the recent integration of the project’s wallet into Telegram. All this indicates that the price of the currency has a greater chance of continuing to rise.

By Leonardo Pérez

$5.5 Million, FTX’s Poisoned Gift to Stanford Returned

Audy Castañeda
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$5.5 Million, FTX’s Poisoned Gift to Stanford Returned

Former wealthy cryptocurrency donor FTX had donated several million dollars to the prestigious Stanford University. Asked by the bankrupt stock exchange’s lawyers, Stanford announces that it will reimburse.

Lawyers for FTX debtors are determined to add money to the bankrupt company’s coffers. And to do so, they took action against third parties, including Sam Bankman-Fried’s parents.

They also contacted the California University of Stanford, where conciliation prevailed. The university would have received donations worth several million dollars. According to information presented in court, FTX allocated $5.5 million between November 2021 and May 2022.

In addition to giving FTX clients funds for the “cause” at the University, Bankman and Fried also received a 30,000-square-foot home in the Bahamas valued at $16.4 million and a $10 million cash gift from their son.

Donations Linked to the Covid Pandemic

Months ago, it was reported that Joseph Bankman and Barbara Fried, the parents of FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried, sent some crypto exchange funds to Stanford University, where they serve as law professors.

“Stanford has received donations from the FTX Foundation and companies related to FTX, mainly for pandemic prevention and research,” confirms a spokesperson for the renowned university.

The university therefore owes its generous donations to its ties to the parents of the former star crypto entrepreneur. In any case, these are the accusations of the plaintiffs’ lawyers, who demanded reimbursement of the donations.

“We have spoken with the lawyers of the FTX debtors to recover these donations and we will return the funds in full,” announced the Stanford representative, without specifying the exact amount of the initial donation.

Despite the university’s intentions, in court filings they alleged that the donations to the institute did not benefit the FTX Group, and instead represented personal treatment by Bankman, who sought to curry favor and enrich his employer by expenses of the FTX Group.

This may not be the case with other donations SBF made, especially those made to political groups. Donations to political parties were labeled “fraudulent transfers” in a lawsuit and would therefore be returned.

Like Stanford University, the Metropolitan Museum of Art also received millions of dollars in donations from the crypto exchange. During the end of the second quarter of 2023, the museum finally decided to return $550,000 thousand dollars in donations as a result of “good faith and independent negotiations” on behalf of both parties involved.

SBF Accused of Illegal Transfers to His Parents

Lawyers will likely have a more difficult time obtaining restitution of the funds paid by FTX to Bankman and Fried. According to new elements provided in the file, SBF was very generous with his parents, after his father considered his annual salary of $200,000 insufficient.

“Within two weeks, Bankman-Fried gave Bankman and Fried $10 million in funds from Alameda Ltd. Over the next three months, Bankman-Fried arranged for the couple to receive a $16.4 million property in the Bahamas, paid with funds ultimately obtained from FTX Trading.”

According to the lawyers, the parents of the former CEO thus benefited from illegal transfers of funds belonging to the bankrupt company. His lawyers denounce “completely false” accusations. They won’t pay as easily as Stanford.

Since FTX’s collapse in November 2022 and its protection from filing for bankruptcy, the company’s debtors represented by some advisors have been trying to recover their funds. Most of these customer deposits were given as donations and gifts to various entities, including political parties.

By Audy Castaneda

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