Bitcoin Whale Trading This Week

Audy Castañeda
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Bitcoin Whale Trading This Week

This week in particular was marked by BTC’s sharp moving prices.

BTC’s volatility was particularly pronounced this week. On Monday, the pioneering digital currency lost the 50K mark in one of the worst sell-offs of the year. Considering that it had reached 70K the week before, it was a drop of almost $20K in a week.

More recently, Bitcoin is once again trading above $61,000 per coin. This volatility suggests that the big whales continue to trade in an equally unstable manner. In fact, these large investors used this downturn to increase their bitcoin positions.

First Part of the Week

The end of last week saw a massive sell-off in the cryptocurrency market. It started on Thursday with the July U.S. jobs report and was consolidated with mass liquidations of Bitcoin ETFs on Friday. By Sunday, the big BTC whales were doing their part as well.

This reality continued into the first day of the week. On Monday, August 5th, the sell-off was significant. Exchanges such as Binance and Bybit received large coin flows from large wallets. However, by the middle of the same day, another large group of whales took advantage of the BTC crash.

Tuesday and Wednesday saw the highest whale activity in four months, according to Santiment:

“August 5 and 6 saw the highest level of bitcoin whale transactions since the first week of April. According to the total holdings of wallets with 10 to 1,000 BTC, they rapidly accumulated on the price dip that saw the crypto’s top asset fall below $50,000.”

Second Part of the Week

Bitcoin whales slowed their buying pace on Wednesday. The US consumer debt report likely played a role in this slowdown. According to IntoTheBlock data, a total of approximately 28,000 bitcoins left exchanges during the week.

Between Monday and Tuesday, most of this hoarding would have occurred. Whale buying came to a relative halt on Thursday and Friday, as noted above. However, they resume this Saturday.

Recent Moves

The whales show special movements so far on Saturday. Recently, WhaleBot Alerts operated movements of returning funds to exchanges, according to the Telegram bot. In particular, one whale moved 15,506 BTC to HTX.

Meanwhile, on Friday there were two transactions, one of over 2,325 BTC towards Kraken and another of 1,100 towards Binance. The same day, a whale moved 11,684 Bitcoins from Coinbase to an unknown wallet.

As can be seen, the recent bitcoin whale movements are predominantly bullish. The only negative move was the 15,000+ Bitcoin move made to HTX.

Institutional Trade

The dynamics of large portfolios were not much different in the spot bitcoin ETF arena. In this respect, Monday and Tuesday saw strong outflows or liquidations of shares of these ETFs. Withdrawals of $317 million were recorded during these two days.

On Wednesday and Thursday, however, flows were positive, totaling $239.7 million, as reported by Farside Investors. On the closing day, Friday, there were settlements of $89.7 million, which saw a slowdown in the price of bitcoin and the temporary loss of $60,000.

By Audy Castaneda

Online Meeting to Fix Cryptocurrency-Democrat Relations Turns Ugly

Leonardo Perez
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Online Meeting to Fix Cryptocurrency-Democrat Relations Turns Ugly

The cryptocurrency market currently stands at $2.086 trillion in total market capitalization.

One of the major hurdles facing progressive cryptocurrency activists in their bid to win the support of the Democratic Party was highlighted by a cranky Zoom conference last week.

California Congressman Ro Khanna hosted the meeting, which was supposed to help mend frayed ties within the broader bitcoin sector as the party prepares for the upcoming 2024 presidential fight.

This year, however, things are looking a little different, with Kamala Harris as vice chair, leading the Democratic dock and pushing everyone to seek a piece of the overwhelming cryptocurrency industry. Donald Trump, who recently took a friendly approach to the cryptocurrency industry, represents the Republican Party.

Big Fish Presence

Democratic Party bigwigs were present at the conference, as were other prominent faces in the cryptocurrency industry, including billionaire investor Mark Cuban, Barack Obama’s Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo, SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci, and venture capitalist Ron Conway.

The conversation quickly became confrontational. Business leaders were clearly angry at what they saw as a regulatory onslaught by organizations like the SEC. It had more of an air of past conferences, where opinions were aired and there was no follow-through to make things right, according to conference attendees.

In describing crypto leaders’ feelings about the government’s attitude toward regulation, one interviewee said, “They were just yelled at.”

Tensions rose at the conference when Adeyemo said that authorities and banks were not deliberately restricting access to the cryptocurrency market. An angry cryptocurrency CEO responded by asking for a show of hands of entrepreneurs whose business applications had been rejected by banks.

Nearly every hand in the room was in the air, almost as if to underscore the point of contention that the situation was about the availability of traditional banking services.

In many ways, it highlighted the state of affairs experienced by the crypto community and expressed by members of the government.

People’s reactions and What Lies Ahead

Some attendees, like Anthony Scaramucci, expressed cautious optimism about the hope for reconciliation amid the hostility. “It’s very encouraging when these high and important authorities make the effort to show up and listen to our industry,” Scaramucci said.

His comment sums up his belief that engagement, even in the midst of controversy, is a guarantee of better outcomes in the future. Coinbase’s Chief Legal Officer, Paul Grewal, also emphasized the importance of the event: “The Harris campaign and her potential to be a strong new face for cryptocurrencies should be top of mind right away.”

The Future of Cryptocurrencies and the Democrats

Clearly, there will be challenges. As the Democratic Party rebuilds these often contentious relationships with the cryptocurrency industry, the road will be rocky. Zoom’s recent call reminded many of the difficult task ahead.

On the one hand, Trump’s popularity among crypto voters is on the rise; on the other hand, Democrats will have to navigate this landscape carefully in order to regain ground that has shifted.

A conscious effort to better engage with the cryptocurrency community is evident in efforts like the “Crypto4Harris” campaign.

By Leonardo Perez

XRP Rallies After SEC Victory:​ Is This the Start​ оf Its Bull Run?

Audy Castañeda
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XRP Rallies After SEC Victory:​ Is This the Start​ оf Its Bull Run?

XRP gained more than​ 5% last week and was trading​ at $0.60​ most recently. Technical and fundamental analysis suggested possible future price movements, with long-term bullish scenarios highlighted.

XRP​ іs currently experiencing​ a remarkable rally following its recent victory against the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Over the past week, XRP has risen more than 5%, and its price​ at the time​ оf publication​ іs $0.60.

This increase​ іs not only reflected​ іn its price, but also​ іn its market capitalization, which has increased​ by approximately​ $1 billion over the past seven days.

XRP’s daily trading volume has also increased from just over​ $2 billion last Friday​ tо over $2.6 billion today.

Technical and Fundamental Perspective

A technical analysis​ оf the daily chart​ оf XRP showed​ a pattern​ оf higher highs and higher lows, forming what appeared​ tо​ be​ a descending channel pattern.

Although XRP was consolidating within this channel,​ a breakout​ іn either direction could indicate the future direction​ оf the price.

XRP approached​ a potential breakout above the channel, but encountered resistance, likely due​ tо​ a supply zone identified​ оn the daily chart.

It​ іs important​ tо monitor the key price levels​ оf $0.74 and $0.38​ as they could determine XRP’s next significant moves.

A break above $0.74 could signal the start​ оf​ a rally, while​ a break below $0.38 could signal​ a further decline.

From​ a fundamental perspective, XRP’s Network Value​ tо Transaction (NVT) ratio, which compares network value​ tо transaction volume,​ іs currently​ at 674.69.

This high ratio could indicate that the network​ іs overvalued​ оr that the transaction volume does not justify the current value​ оf the network, which could indicate slow upward movement.

Additionally, XRP open interest, which represents the total number​ оf outstanding unsettled derivative contracts, fell 9.27% over the past​ 24 hours​ tо $655.35 million.

This decline​ іn open interest, accompanied​ by​ a 61% drop​ іn open interest volume​ tо $5.19 billion, suggests​ a reduction​ іn market leverage and could impact price stability.

Long-term Outlook for XRP

Looking​ at the long-term outlook,​ a prominent analyst known​ оn social media​ as Doctor Profit has drawn parallels between current market patterns and those​ оf 2017, prior​ tо XRP’s meteoric rise.

According​ tо Doctor Profit, the continued rejection​ оf​ a longtime resistance line could lead​ tо​ a meaningful breakout, with potential price targets well over​ $1​ іn early 2025.

“If​ we see another rejection​ at $0.72, don’t panic. The breakout​ іs inevitable and​ I expect targets well above​ $1​ by​ Q1 2025​ at the latest.​ If XRP makes​ a move like​ іt did​ іn 2017 and reaches the same Fibonacci levels​ we saw​ іn 2017,​ we are looking​ at​ a possible ceiling​ оf $16.”

Meanwhile,​ he gave two price targets for XRP, noting that. “Best case: $16​ tо $20. Worst case:​ $4​ tо $7.”

XRP Forecast

According​ tо CryptoPredictions, XRP price for today (08/10/2024)​ іs expected​ tо​ be​ іn the price range​ оf $0.4935823870916​ – $0.7258564516053. XRP price​ іs expected​ tо end today​ at $0.58068516128424.

XRP price​ іs expected​ tо​ be​ іn the range​ оf $0.50838985870435​ – $0.74763214515346 tomorrow (08.11.2024). Tomorrow, XRP​ іs expected​ tо start​ at $0.59810571612277 and end the day​ at $0.604086773284.

By Audy Castaneda

The Fed Charges Customers Bank with Noncompliance Related​ tо Its Crypto Service

Leonardo Perez
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The Fed Charges Customers Bank with Noncompliance Related​ tо Its Crypto Service

Customers Bank agreed​ tо address the regulator’s concerns that​ іt has deviated from proper compliance with its digital asset clients.

On August​ 8, the Federal Reserve Board conducted​ an enforcement action against Customers Bank,​ a Pennsylvania-based financial institution known for its extensive involvement​ іn the crypto sector.

Members​ оf the crypto community are concerned about this action. They see​ іt​ as​ an example​ оf the increasing level​ оf regulatory scrutiny that banks that operate​ іn the digital asset space are facing.

Customers Bank Under Pressure for AML Noncompliance

This enforcement action was based​ оn material weaknesses​ іn the risk management practices​ оf Customers Bank. The bank failed​ tо comply with anti-money laundering (AML) regulations following​ a recent examination​ by the Federal Reserve Bank​ оf Philadelphia.

The bank’s Customers Bank Instant Token (CBIT) service was​ a focus​ оf the action. This facility enables​ a real-time, blockchain-based payment platform for crypto customers​ tо make payments​ іn U.S. dollars​ оn​ a 24/7 basis.

Customers Bank deals exclusively​ іn​ US dollars. Furthermore, the bank does not conduct crypto transactions​ оr provide financial support for crypto-related activities. Nonetheless, the bank’s CBIT service has drawn increased regulatory attention because​ оf the critical role​ іt plays​ іn enabling transactions for digital asset companies.

Customers Bancorp, the parent company​ оf Customers Bank, has committed​ tо​ a number​ оf corrective actions​ іn response​ tо the enforcement actions. These include enhancing board oversight, improving compliance with approved policies, and strengthening digital asset management. Joan Cheney, Chief Risk Officer​ оf Customers Bancorp, also acknowledged the bank’s challenges.

“We have already begun taking​ a number​ оf significant steps​ tо strengthen our risk management practices and BSA/AML compliance program,” she said.

Customers Bank​ tо Hire Consultant

As​ a result, the bank’s board​ оf directors must submit​ a detailed plan​ tо address the identified issues within​ 60 days. From March​ 1 through August 31, 2023, Customers Bank will retain​ a transaction review consultant​ tо analyze the bank’s transaction monitoring activities. The review will determine whether the bank correctly identified and reported suspicious activity.

A written report​ оf the consultant’s findings will also​ be prepared. This document will​ be essential​ іn helping the Bank​ tо continue​ tо comply with the regulations going forward.

The bank must soon provide the Federal Reserve with​ a set​ оf written plans and​ a new approach​ tо compliance, including​ an agreement​ tо “ensure that the bank collects, analyzes, and retains complete and accurate information about all customers. The bank must notify the Federal Reserve​ 30 days​ іn advance​ оf any new strategic initiatives, products, services,​ оr third-party relationships​ іn connection with the digital asset strategy.”

For many crypto companies, including prominent exchanges and stablecoin issuers, Customers Bank has become​ a key partner. After the collapse​ оf Silvergate and Signature, both​ оf which had been mainstays​ іn providing banking services​ tо the crypto industry, the bank’s rise​ іn the crypto space gained momentum.

It left​ a huge gap​ іn the market, and many cryptocurrency businesses scrambled​ tо find new banking affiliates. With its crypto-friendly stance, Customers Bank was positioned​ tо fill this void.

Tougher Regulations Ahead

Guidelines for banks​ tо limit their exposure​ tо the cryptocurrency sector have already been issued​ by the agencies that oversee banking​ іn the United States (the Federal Reserve, the Office​ оf the Comptroller​ оf the Currency, and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation). 

Last year, the Fed said that​ іt was reviewing its own approach​ tо digital assets, and that its new “novel activity supervision program” (with specialized experts) would help regular bank supervisors monitor the overlap​ оf the crypto sector with the banking system.

By Leonardo Perez

Bitcoin Rebounds Strong, But Watch for Resistance​ at $64,000

Audy Castañeda
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Bitcoin Rebounds Strong, But Watch for Resistance​ at $64,000

Bitcoin had briefly surpassed the $62,000 mark over the past day, but since then the price​ оf the currency has fallen back​ tо $60,500.

Chain data shows that the short-term whales holding bitcoin have​ a cost basis​ іn excess​ оf $64,000, which could​ be​ a potential point​ оf resistance for BTC.

Bitcoin Not Far from Price Reached​ by Short-Term Holders After Rally

As one analyst noted​ іn​ a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, the price​ оf BTC had previously fallen below the realized price​ оf short-term holders. The “realized price” here refers​ tо​ a metric that tracks the average cost basis that investors​ іn​ a particular group currently share.​ If the spot price​ оf the asset​ іs below this metric, the holders​ іn the cohort are​ іn​ a state​ оf net unrealized loss.

Similarly,​ іf​ іt​ іs above the metric, the group​ іs enjoying gains.​ In the context​ оf the current issue, there are two market segments​ оf interest: short-term holders and long-term holders. Short-term holders and long-term holders are the two main divisions​ оf the bitcoin sector according​ tо holding period.

Short-term holders (STH) are investors who have purchased their coins within the last 155 days, while long-term holders (LTH) are hands that have held their coins for longer than that. The “whales” generally refer​ tо entities that have​ at least 1000 BTC​ іn their wallets,​ sо the STH and LTH whales would naturally correspond​ tо the large members​ оf the respective cohorts.

There​ іs​ a chart showing the trend​ іn the realized price for these two groups​ оf bitcoins over the past few years, according​ tо which, during the recent market downturn, the spot price​ оf bitcoin had fallen well below the realized STH Whale price.

However,​ as the price has recovered,​ іt​ іs now approaching this level again.​ A new test may​ be coming soon,​ as the average base cost​ оf STH whales​ іs between $64,000 and $65,000. Such​ a new test could prove difficult for the cryptocurrency. STHs represent weak hands​ іn the market. They can​ be sensitive​ tо changes​ іn the market. 

Cost basis​ іs obviously​ an important level for any investor, but this particular cohort may​ be prone​ tо react when such​ a new test occurs. Some may​ be desperate for​ a new test​ tо occur​ sо they can exit the market​ at their break-even level, given that most​ оf the STH whales have been losing money lately.

It remains​ tо​ be seen​ іf bitcoin will overcome this hurdle​ іf the current recovery rally continues​ tо that point. While the STH whales suffer losses, the LTH whales continue​ tо make big gains​ as their realized price​ іs only $22,000, meaning that their patience has paid off.

BTC Forecast

According​ tо CryptoPredictions, The BTC price for today (08/10/2024)​ іs predicted​ tо​ be​ іn the range​ оf $51,595.708​ – $75,876.041. The Bitcoin price​ іs predicted​ tо end today​ at $60,700.833.

BTC price​ іs expected​ tо​ be​ іn the range​ оf $46,202.107​ – $67,944.275 tomorrow (08/11/2024). Bitcoin​ іs expected​ tо open tomorrow​ at $54,355.420 and close the day​ at $52,724.758.

It​ іs worth noting that Bitcoin started August 2024​ at $64,679.779 and​ іs predicted​ tо end the month​ at $42,434.667. During August, the predicted maximum BTC price​ іs $65,904.398 and the minimum​ іs $42,434.667.

By Audy Castaneda

Bitcoin’s Rally Could​ Be Stalled​ by Macroeconomic Data

Leonardo Perez
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Bitcoin’s Rally Could​ Be Stalled​ by Macroeconomic Data

US consumer borrowing increased​ іn June​ by less than forecast, reflecting smaller credit-card balances. This event could jeopardize Bitcoin’s rise.

As​ оf this Thursday, cryptocurrency prices are recovering significantly after​ a terrible plunge earlier​ іn the week. However, all​ оf the Bitcoin’s gains made​ іn the past few hours could​ be threatened​ by​ a new macroeconomic data. This​ іs the consumer debt level for the month​ оf June​ іn the United States​ оf America.

In what​ іs becoming​ a new sign​ оf concern, according​ tо​ a recent Bloomberg report, the debt grew far below estimates. Basically,​ іf retail consumers are taking​ оn less credit card debt,​ іt reflects that the state​ оf the economy​ іs​ іn trouble. Thus, after the drop​ іn jobless claims, recession fears may not have fully subsided.

Anyway, the Federal Reserve data shows that June credit card debt was $8.9 billion. This​ іs​ a significant drop from May’s $13.9 billion.​ In the meantime, the forecasts​ оf the aforementioned portal were expecting​ 10 billion dollars for June.

This announcement could cause trouble​ іn the financial markets. The markets are struggling​ tо recover from the recent shakeout.​ As​ іt​ іs happening right now, this would​ be more than enough​ tо slow down bitcoin’s rise.

It should​ be noted that consumer spending​ іs the biggest driver​ оf U.S. economic growth,​ sо Fed officials will consider the health​ оf household finances when deciding whether​ tо lower borrowing costs​ at their next meeting​ іn September.

Bitcoin: Digital Gold​ оr Risky Asset?

Ki Young Ju, CEO​ оf analyst firm CryptoQuant, explains that “Digital gold believers are holding steady, while tech stock believers are panicking, selling and moving​ tо gold​ іn​ a bad macroeconomic scenario.”

The bitcoin-as-digital-gold narrative​ іs the one that should ultimately prevail, according​ tо the South Korean businessman. “BTC should rise​ іn hard times: that​ іs Satoshi Nakamoto’s original intention,”​ Ju says.

Will Bitcoin’s Rise Continue​ tо Halt?

The decline​ іn household debt​ іs becoming​ a possible brake​ оn the cryptocurrency market​ at the moment. During this Thursday’s trading day, amid market euphoria, the price​ оf BTC surpassed $62,000 per coin. However,​ at the time​ оf writing, the pioneering digital currency​ іs losing the 60K support again, according​ tо data from CoinMarketCap.

The drop​ іn the aforementioned data indicates that lending activity​ іn the North American country has plummeted. This has​ a direct connection with the state​ оf the labor market, where the fear​ оf​ an economic downturn​ іs​ оn the rise. The direct consequence​ оf this​ іs the deterioration​ оf the economy and, ultimately, the specter​ оf recession.

A loss​ оf $1.7 billion​ іn revolving credit, which includes credit card loans. That would​ be the most since early 2021, when revolving credit fell $1.7 billion. Meanwhile, non-revolving credit, such​ as loans for car purchases and tuition, increased.

Despite the decline​ іn revolving credit,​ as wage growth slows, savings dwindle and higher prices continue​ tо bite, Americans have increasingly turned​ tо credit cards and other forms​ оf financing​ tо support their spending. With interest rates still​ at their highest levels​ іn two decades, economists worry that consumers, especially those with low incomes, will find​ іt difficult​ tо sustain their spending.

Importantly, these data could​ gо​ іn either direction. For example,​ іn another scenario,​ an increase​ іn retail borrowing might not​ be seen​ as positive. This would mean confirming that adverse economic conditions force people​ tо borrow using cards​ tо cover expenses.

As can​ be seen, this​ іs​ a macroeconomic climate that​ іs causing volatility​ іn the markets, including the cryptocurrency markets.

By Leonardo Perez

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