China Miners Would Start Migrating Before Government Crackdown Arrives

Bitcoin’s hash rate is migrating from China to the US and Kazakhstan. Research shows that China’s share of Bitcoin mining has decayed 29%.

The research team from the Cambridge Center for Alternative Finance (CCAF) revealed new data that shows the geographical changes that Bitcoin mining has been suffering during the year. The analysis highlights that China’s share dropped dramatically long before the government crackdown in June 2021.

New data from the CCAF at Cambridge Judge Business School revealed that China’s share of Bitcoin mining had fallen from 75.5% in September 2019 to just 46% in April 2021, even before the set of restrictions to bitcoin miners appeared. In contrast, during the same period, the United States’ share of the total Bitcoin hash rate reached a peak circling from 4.1% to 16.8%.

The report also highlights the increase in mining participation in Kazakhstan, which now ranks third place in the list, going from 1.4% to 8.2% in the same time. Russia and Iran are in fourth and fifth position.

In 2019, the Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index (CBECI) platform debuted in a context of growing concern about the sustainability and environmental impact of Bitcoin mining. Since then, a global debate has been created and has received high importance in recent months. This interest started to grow right after the announcements made by the co-founder and CEO of Tesla, Elon Musk.

Under the argument of environmental impact, as of May, the Government of China has limited Bitcoin mining, and in some provinces, it has banned it. The energy provider State Grid has been one of the principal promoters, alleging electricity shortages in some areas of the Asian nation. They have even pointed to risks in Bitcoin as an excuse for the creation of the digital yuan.

Miners Are Getting Out of China and looking for New Places

The analysis also points at the annual migration of miners from the northern province of Xinjiang to southern Sichuan.

This migration happened to take advantage of the low-cost electricity generated by its hydroelectric plant. In 2020, Sichuan’s share of China’s total Bitcoin mining power reached a peak from 14.9% to 61.1% in the rainy season. However, in June 2021, the suspension of Bitcoin mining came to light.

Seasonal migration has seriously harmed the energy profile of Bitcoin mining in China, which has so far been by far the vastest mining market. With recent bans from the Chinese government’s Financial Stability and Development Committee, China’s hash rate has disappeared overnight, suggesting a displacement of miners and their equipment elsewhere.

The increasing participation in nations such as the United States of America indicates where the hash rate will be moving next. Various bitcoin mining companies based in China have made agreements to migrate their equipment to the United States of America and Canada. These deals seem to be reflecting positively on the processing power of Bitcoin miners.

By: Jenson Nuñez

France Proposes a Single Authority to Supervise Cryptocurrencies in Europe

ESMA would have the power to supervise public offerings of cryptocurrencies directly. The application of the AMF proposal would involve using the practice of ESMA for the regulation of cryptocurrencies.

The Financial Markets Authority (AMF) of France proposes a single authority to regulate cryptocurrencies in the European Union.

The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) submits this proposal published in a document. They based the text on the responses to a consultation that the European Union conducted. They recently released the work under the title: “More European supervision and better regulation are key elements to build a true Capital Markets Union.”

ESMA supervises the European markets, seeking to improve the functioning of financial markets and promote cooperation between members of the economic bloc.

The text says that ESMA would directly supervise the Public Offerings of Crypto Assets in the EU and cryptocurrency service providers. Furthermore, it explains that this would create scale economies for national supervisors and concentrate technical know-how efficiently to benefit Europe.

The publication also recommends reducing the aspirations of the nations of the European Union in this regard. That will make it possible to agree on a single regulatory framework that ESMA manages and that allows it to receive the powers.

The document also addresses the governance of ESMA, whose revision it considers necessary to allow a more European decision-making dimension. Likewise, it explains that national authorities constitute the current management framework of the financial system supervisor in the European Union. That limits decision-making to a broader scope, which is a matter of credibility for the European authority.

The AMF believes it is necessary to strengthen the role of the Board of Directors and the independence of ESMA. That would facilitate the making of the different decisions in this environment.

Furthermore, the ESMA administrative structure and source of funding must remain closely linked to its management. In other words, members with less vote will not have as strict a financial obligation as those with higher decision-making power.

It also considers it essential to ensure sufficient flexibility so that ESMA can quickly adjust to the evolution and external finances of the market. It also seeks to adapt to new important projects to adequately fulfill its mission and face the increase in supervisory powers.

On the Way to Complement a Single Regulation

The document also notes the need to complement a single regulation that requires simplifying procedures in Europe and streamlining financial regulation. In this way, there will be greater efficiency in the single market and the competitiveness of the European Union in the world market.

In this regard, it adds that the Commission should systematize choosing regulations instead of directives in the future. That is particularly relevant when they involve financial products that benefit from a European passport.

The text says that efficient European supervision is essential for the capital markets union. They must put it into practice together with the establishment of a single effective regulation. The document indicates that this has not had the expected results through the attempts in legislative matters.

In 2020, the European Commission proposed creating a supervisory agency for cryptocurrencies, which would take effect at the end of that year. That project aimed at creating a team of supervisors with national authorities and EU agencies. The European Banking Authority (EBA) would chair that group and control the cryptocurrency sector in the region.

By Alexander Salazar

Former Chilean Senator Felipe Harboe Says Banks Criminalize Cryptocurrencies Unfairly

The politician questioned the intermediation of banks and their role in the finances of Chile. He revealed that the Chilean Central Bank has debated how it could issue a digital peso.

Former Chilean senator and current constituent Felipe Harboe recently spoke about the role of banks in the economy. He said that these institutions have unfairly criminalized cryptocurrencies, as they seek to be the only intermediaries between citizens and the possibility of investing.

The politician from the Party for Democracy (PPD) stressed that Chile must stop using the business logic of the 90s if it wants to develop faster. Harboe believes that it must become a center for digital instruments in which cryptocurrencies play a crucial role.

He does not believe that digitization happens just because someone is a bank customer. He noted that the costs associated with international bank transfers are enormous, as well as slow. He told JazmĂ­n Jorquera, the operations manager of Buda.com, that it does not make any sense.

Harboe stated that the massification of cryptocurrencies is possible in a globalized and free world. The lawyer also explained that digitization is not just paying with credit cards or making transfers through the Internet. He said that each person must take care of their finances with digital tools, dispensing with intermediaries.

The constituent cited Mexico, with the implementation of the FinTech Law, and El Salvador, with the adoption of Bitcoin as legal tender. Regarding the Central American country, the politician said that its decision was daring but that there are still doubts about its impact on its economic development.

The Central Bank of Chile Debates on How to Issue the Digital Peso

One of the things the former senator revealed was that the Central Bank of Chile has debated how it could issue a digital peso. However, Harboe did not give details about his meetings or what the progress has been.

He explained that many countries would start to get involved with that type of currencies, just like China did with its digital yuan. Among those he mentioned are the advances that the United States and the European Union are making.

Chile would have to meet some conditions to issue a digital peso, said Harboe. It must have a digital regulatory system including data protection, draft a FinTech law, diversify digital payment methods, and promote platforms for new business models.

Additionally, the South American country must expand the areas of technological coverage. In other words, it must have an infrastructure allowing them to connect to the Internet even in the most remote part of the territory.

The representative to Congress believes that all Chilean ministries should promote digital development. Each agency must have programs to apply new solutions without a new digital department to regulate the sector.

The legislator has spoken with other representatives to Congress about a possible regulation on private cryptocurrencies such as Monero and Zcash. The debate has allowed them to define the path to take to regulate this type of crypto asset. The politician defends not only cryptocurrencies but also blockchain technology.

By Alexander Salazar

Now Is a Crucial Moment for Bitcoin’s Most Bullish Price Prediction Model

The price of Bitcoin showed a downside break of the range that the stock-to-flow model had risen. Although this BTC valuation model usually has variations, it remains in force.

One of the indicators with the most optimistic prospects for predicting the price of Bitcoin (BTC) is precisely the stock-to-flow (S2F) model. However, it seems to be failing due to the most recent cryptocurrency market crash.

The creator of the model, PlanB, shared on Twitter a graph showing a downside break of the estimated range of the price of Bitcoin. The analyst accompanied the image with the text: “Bounce or break, that is the question.”

The analyst also compared this breakout to some bearish market momentum in 2019. That year, the price of BTC approached the lowest point of the range for the prediction model but rebounded again without breaking it. Although there was a breakout this time, PlanB expects the pioneering cryptocurrency to rally as it did on that occasion.

At the beginning of July, PlanB envisaged that the second half of 2021 would be crucial for its model. The market value of Bitcoin is at the lowest point in the stock-to-flow band since January 2019.

It is not the first breakout of those ranges in the model, but most of the previous ones were to the upside. These variations, belonging to the same model, have been reflected in the historical price ranges of Bitcoin.

Measuring these variations can indicate whether an asset is undervalued or overvalued based on stock-to-flow. According to data from Look Into Bitcoin, the Bitcoin S2F difference indicator has been negative below -1 on other occasions.

At the moment, it is at its lowest historical point, with -1.03. Regarding upward variations, the highest point of overvaluation of the cryptocurrency occurred in November 2013, with 1.9.

Market Complexity Goes Beyond the Issuance Bitcoin

The trust of enthusiasts in the PlanB model has waned as it is difficult for Bitcoin to regain its April and May levels.

The world of cryptocurrencies inherited the stock-to-flow model from traditional markets, basing on the supply of assets. In the case of Bitcoin, the S2F model bases its projections on the cycle of issuing new coins. A fundamental aspect is the decreasing nature of the creation of Bitcoin, thanks to the reduction (halving) of rewards to miners.

The model that PlanB created in 2019 seems to remain valid, traversing market cycles since the trading of Bitcoin began. That model indicates that the cryptocurrency should currently be worth more than USD 80,000.

A Twitter user wrote about the price variations concerning the valuation that the S2F raises. He said they were part of the course of the market, which reacts to other elements besides the supply in the circulation of the asset. The pandemic, restrictions on mining in China, and the attacks by Elon Musk have contributed to the drop in price.

After recently losing the USD 30,000 support, Bitcoin has managed to rally again. The market-leading cryptocurrency is currently trading above USD 32,300, according to data from CoinGecko.

By Alexander Salazar

The Loss of USD 30,000 in the Price of Bitcoin May Make the Stock-to-Flow Model Invalid

According to the S2F model, the price of BTC should be around USD 88,531, but PlanB predicted it could be much higher. The COVID-19 pandemic, the attacks by Elon Musk and the popularity of non-fungible tokens have affected this demand and adoption dynamics.

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) still struggles around the USD 30,000 mark, so the stock-to-flow (S2F) model is now the furthest from its estimates. More than two years ago, Twitter user and anonymous Dutch investor, PlanB, popularized the model.

People consider the S2F model is one of the chief quantitative valuations for the first existing scarce digital currency. According to the model, the scarcity of certain materials or assets is what drives their prices higher.

The S2F model seeks to value Bitcoin the same way as scarce commodities like gold and silver. Its essence is that assets like Bitcoin, gold and silver only have a limited supply flow in a given period. In contrast, there is a greater supply flow of raw materials such as oil, copper and steel, which is theoretically unlimited.

Bitcoin has a maximum supply of 21 million tokens, and its mining process requires a lot of time and energy.  Therefore, only a certain number of new coins can come into circulation in a given period. Even though the cryptocurrency had fit perfectly into this model, KuCoin Global CEO Jhonny Lyu said that the situation has changed.

Negative Deviation from the S2F Model Is the Highest in the History of Bitcoin

The S2F model indicates that the price of BTC should be around USD 88,531, almost three times its previous price. In early 2021, PlanB suggested that Bitcoin could reach between USD 135,000 and USD 450,000 before December. Besides, the model predicts that Bitcoin would reach the long-awaited USD-1-million mark within four more years.

A survey that PlanB recently conducted on Twitter revealed that 41% of respondents thought the price would remain below USD 100,000 this year. In March, when Bitcoin was trading at USD 55,000, 16% of them believed the same. PlanB said that Bitcoin prices deviating from the S2F model make even him uneasy.

Lex Moskovski, the CIO of Moskovski Capital, noted that the negative deviation from S2F had been the highest in the history of Bitcoin. He said that those believing in the model could buy Bitcoin since this price drop would be unexpected.

Dynamics of the Demand for and Adoption of Bitcoin Changes for Various Reasons

Since March 2019, institutional and retail adoption rates in the market for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have increased dramatically. The COVID-19 pandemic has also affected this demand and adoption dynamics since it has led to the massive inflation of the supply of US dollars.

Elon Musk and the popularity of non-fungible tokens (NTFs) have contributed to the awareness of cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology.

Lyu said that emerging projects and altcoins would distract investors’ attention and diversify their investment portfolios. The dominance of Bitcoin has fallen from more than 60% to 46.3%, which means a growing altcoin sector.

As an example of the shifting demand and adoption of Bitcoin since the inception of the S2F model, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust Fund (GBTC) recently suffered from several stock breakouts. This expiration increased the downward pressure on Bitcoin, causing it to drop to around USD 30,500 from nearly USD 32,200.

By Alexander Salazar

Mastercard is About to Test Stablecoin USDC as a Bridge for Cryptocurrency Payments

Mastercard joined efforts with Circle to test USDC as a bridge to bring more simplicity to conversions between fiat and cryptocurrency. The ultimate goal is to make it easier for companies to manage Mastercard cryptocurrency cards.

The renowned global payments company, Mastercard, has chosen its first stable coin and has joined efforts with a group of companies to carry out plans to incorporate cryptocurrencies into its payments services.

Circle, the blockchain company that operates the stable coin USDC, announced Tuesday a partnership with Mastercard for consumers and businesses worldwide to take advantage of USDC in payments and transactions. Specifically, the alliance intends to facilitate conversions between crypto and fiat currency by applying Circle’s stable coin as a bridge asset.

USDC is Bridge for Crypto-Fiat Conversions

While including a stablecoin in the crypto-fiat conversion process may look like an extra step, adding USDC can make the process faster. Currently, card issuers must deal with the high costs of switching between crypto and fiat when settling a transaction.

Dhamodharan, Executive Vice President of Digital Assets, and Blockchain Products at Mastercard explained that not all companies count on the fundamental infrastructure to transform cryptocurrency into traditional fiat currency.

On many exchange platforms, some cryptocurrencies can be traded more easily by stablecoin than by fiat currency. The ultimate goal is for the USDC trial to help expand the crypto card service, allowing more companies to have the ability to offer their customers the option of spending digital currencies between merchants that accept Mastercard around the world.

Mastercard had already carried out plans in February to allow merchants the possibility of receiving payments with cryptocurrencies by the end of this year. Dhamodharan had already hinted that stablecoins would be a step towards that ultimate goal.

Mastercard is already conducting  plans regarding cryptocurrencies

According to a CoinDesk report, the stable coin testing program led by the payments giant also includes partnering with a handful of companies. Apart from Circle, Evolve Bank & Trust and Paxos Trust Co. are also involved in the pilot, although their roles are unclear.

Mastercard announced that it is currently in conversations with Evolve and Metropolitan Commercial Bank to start issuing cryptocurrency cards. Likewise, the company’s spokesperson, Katie Priebe, clarified that USDC would be the only stable coin involved in the program. She added that the pilot should be ready soon, although a specific date is yet unclear.

The company is also talking with cryptocurrency startups Uphold and BitPay to bring digital wallet technology. There are conversations with three firms from the traditional card business to manage more back-end functions.

Mastercard is not the only company in the payments sector measuring the potential of stablecoins for transactions. Its main rival, Visa, also signed an alliance with Circle last year to help the company unlock “fast and cheap payments.”

By: Jenson Nuñez