In its latest “Blockchain Letter,” published on Aug. 22nd, the cryptoasset manager’s executives reaffirmed their bullish forecasts for the BTC price for 2024 and beyond.
Bitcoin’s price performance is highly dependent on its halving cycles, Pantera Capital explained, and given that the next one will occur in the next twelve months, the firm is betting that historical trends will continue.
BlockHash’s Brandon Zemp indicated that he expects that the SEC will approve at least one Bitcoin ETF in the next six months.
The BTC/USD pair, Zemp noted, tends to make both a low cycle and a high cycle in roughly the same time period since each halving, which reduces the number of bitcoin paid to miners per block by 50%.
Although, Bitcoin has historically bottomed 477 days before the halving, rallied as it approached, and exploded to the upside afterward, he wrote. Post-halving rallies have averaged 480 days from hibernation to the peak of the next bull cycle.
Pantera continued by signifying that same theory suggests that the 2022 bear market bottom marked the current bottom of the BTC price cycle and if history were to repeat itself, the price of bitcoin should have bottomed on December 30th, 2022.
What does Bitcoin have in common with gold, the dollar and the S&P 500?
Looking ahead, by the halving date in April 2024, the BTC/USD pair could be traded around USD 35,000, something that is still on track to be achieved. However, what happens in the 480 days after that does not only imply a new all-time high, but much more.
Pantera stated that the 2016 halving decreased the supply of new bitcoins by only one-third that of the first, and remarkably, it had exactly one-third the impact on the price. The 2020 halving reduced the supply of new bitcoins by 43% relative to the previous one. It had a 23% better price impact.
The next halving is expected to occur on April 20th, 2024. Given that most bitcoins are now in circulation, each halving will account for almost exactly half of the reduction in the new supply. If history were to repeat itself, Bitcoin would rise to USD 35,000 before the halving and USD 148,000 after it occurs.
With 480 days to go before a halving in April 2024, bitcoin is set to reach its next all-time high in July 2025. Bitcoin bulls can expect gains of 4.2x. This can be observed in a chart entitled Characteristics of bitcoin halving published by Pantera Capital.
Pantera is not alone in predicting six-figure highs for the BTC price beyond next year.
Why has the cryptocurrency market fallen this week?
Among the most optimistic forecasts are those based on bitcoin’s “Lowest Price Forward” metric, which this month showed that the BTC/USD pair would surpass the USD 100,000 barrier by 2026. Others also believe that it is possible to reach USD 100,000, but not before halving next year. This is shown in a BTC/USD pair performance chart developed by Pantera Capital.
By Audy Castañeda
