Since the long-term trend is bullish, the outlook would only be at risk if the price broke through support at USD 32,000. The price could drop toward USD 36,000, but it would change if demand is near USD 40,000, causing a short-term bullish transition.
The bears are still creating problems in the crypto market, producing a short-term downward forecast for the price of Bitcoin (BTC).
Bitcoin is trading at around USD 40,832 and has accumulated a gain of 2.5% in the last 24 hours. Its trading volume is above USD 30.88 billion, and its market capitalization is approximately USD 776.45 billion.
The bearish inclination has led the market sentiment to fall into fear territory again, and sales might extend in the short term. However, those with their sights on a longer time frame will take advantage to accumulate more. The nervous selling by weak hands could be about to dry up.
The weekly metrics summary by CryptoQuant indicates that the outlook for the price of BTC is quite encouraging. Most indicators are currently neutral, but the second-largest group of metrics is bullish.
The volume of reserves on exchanges remains at a minimum of 2.5 years. Holders transfer their coins to cold wallets with their eyes on the medium-long term.
Most metrics related to the activity of the whales are bullish. While demand is on the rise, supply is becoming increasingly limited.
The Technical Analysis of the Price of BTC
The weekly BTC chart provides a forecast that is not so pessimistic. However, the recent behavior of the price indicates that there could be more selling in the short term.
A two-week bearish direction signifies a pullback in the value of BTC after a significant rebound to the upside.
The recent price drop has not yet shown signs of exhaustion. For that reason, the price will likely be in trouble for a few more days.
However, there is a succession of increasingly high lows, and the price may reach a new point in that trend.
The price crosses the 8-week EMA and 18-week SMA to the upside, but the recent selling pressure does not make that signal reliable.
Since the long-term trend is undoubtedly bullish, the outlook would only be at risk if the price breaks through support at USD 32,000. At the moment, that is an unlikely situation to occur.
The worst that could happen would be sales of up to USD 36,000 in the short term. However, there may be enough demand to resume the previous bullish direction before that.
The Daily Analysis of the Bitcoin Price
The daily BTC chart shows a short-term downtrend, which may continue to cause problems in the upcoming days.
The price crosses the 8-day EMA and 18-day SMA to the downside. Those indicators have served as dynamic resistances.
The price recently rallied slightly, reaching what seems to be a new lower low before dropping further.
The most likely BTC forecast is a drop toward USD 36,000 this week.
That would change if the price achieves demand near USD 40,000 and breaks through the resistance at USD 42,750. That would give way to a short-term bullish transition.
Breaking above the 200-period SMA around USD 48,000 would signal that medium-/long-term holders expect to confirm the resumption of the higher trend.
By Alexander Salazar
